Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

I believe this system should be closely monitored. Currently, the wave axis is still inland over extreme western Africa; however, a broad mid level circulation is evident in the vicinity, as demonstrated on satellite imagery. The biggest inhibiting factor is the relatively scanty low level vorticity at 850 mb, unlike the pre-Bertha and pre-Dolly systems. Typically, systems with greater low level vorticity within the horizontal plane(s) feature improved probabilities of development. Another inhibiting factor is the lack of Omega further north and the presence of a strong Azores ridge at H5-H85, which will lead to future SAL events and subsidence inversions. However, SAL is currently more marginal, with fewer signs of temp/subsidence inversions to the west and northwest. Additionally, a surge of mid level moisture and greater precipitable water is exiting the coast of western Africa. Shear will be minimal as well, and global model support is decent; in this case, the models' support may be warranted, based on the aforementioned data. If convection persists or increases over the next ~24 hours, I suspect our next INVEST and tropical cyclone is waiting around the corner. Climatological support is increasing as we enter "prime time" in the Atlantic basin, which occurs from late August to mid October.

Based on the strength of the subtropical low level ridging and the global/CONUS pattern, this system has a very good opportunity to move considerably further west prior to recurvature. Since conditions favor development over the next several days, this one should be closely monitored. The pattern progged by several global models suggests that this one may likely present a threat to non-CONUS land masses. In other words, this system could eventually pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean islands. I would strongly admonish eastern Caribbean residents to keep a watchful eye on this one, especially as we move deeper into August.

[cycloneye]

The Latest pic at 10:00 PM EDT:

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

I believe this system should be closely monitored. Currently, the wave axis is still inland over extreme western Africa; however, a broad mid level circulation is evident in the vicinity, as demonstrated on satellite imagery. The biggest inhibiting factor is the relatively scanty low level vorticity at 850 mb, unlike the pre-Bertha and pre-Dolly systems. Typically, systems with greater low level vorticity within the horizontal plane(s) feature improved probabilities of development. Another inhibiting factor is the lack of Omega further north and the presence of a strong Azores ridge at H5-H85, which will lead to future SAL events and subsidence inversions. However, SAL is currently more marginal, with fewer signs of temp/subsidence inversions to the west and northwest. Additionally, a surge of mid level moisture and greater precipitable water is exiting the coast of western Africa. Shear will be minimal as well, and global model support is decent; in this case, the models' support may be warranted, based on the aforementioned data. If convection persists or increases over the next ~24 hours, I suspect our next INVEST and tropical cyclone is waiting around the corner. Climatological support is increasing as we enter "prime time" in the Atlantic basin, which occurs from late August to mid October.

Based on the strength of the subtropical low level ridging and the global/CONUS pattern, this system has a very good opportunity to move considerably further west prior to recurvature. Since conditions favor development over the next several days, this one should be closely monitored. The pattern progged by several global models suggests that this one may likely present a threat to non-CONUS land masses. In other words, this system could eventually pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean islands. I would strongly admonish eastern Caribbean residents to keep a watchful eye on this one, especially as we move deeper into August.

This is NOT necessarily a fish...

700-850 mb streamline analysis:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

TAFB surface analysis:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

Note that the surface cold front over the far Southeastern CONUS (S Georgia/N Florida) will become a stationary front within the next ~28 hours. Low level ridging will expand SW, accordingly.

Islanders, watch this one. Latest satellite data indicates additional convection is developing.

[Gustywind]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

I believe this system should be closely monitored. Currently, the wave axis is still inland over extreme western Africa; however, a broad mid level circulation is evident in the vicinity, as demonstrated on satellite imagery. The biggest inhibiting factor is the relatively scanty low level vorticity at 850 mb, unlike the pre-Bertha and pre-Dolly systems. Typically, systems with greater low level vorticity within the horizontal plane(s) feature improved probabilities of development. Another inhibiting factor is the lack of Omega further north and the presence of a strong Azores ridge at H5-H85, which will lead to future SAL events and subsidence inversions. However, SAL is currently more marginal, with fewer signs of temp/subsidence inversions to the west and northwest. Additionally, a surge of mid level moisture and greater precipitable water is exiting the coast of western Africa. Shear will be minimal as well, and global model support is decent; in this case, the models' support may be warranted, based on the aforementioned data. If convection persists or increases over the next ~24 hours, I suspect our next INVEST and tropical cyclone is waiting around the corner. Climatological support is increasing as we enter "prime time" in the Atlantic basin, which occurs from late August to mid October.

Based on the strength of the subtropical low level ridging and the global/CONUS pattern, this system has a very good opportunity to move considerably further west prior to recurvature. Since conditions favor development over the next several days, this one should be closely monitored. The pattern progged by several global models suggests that this one may likely present a threat to non-CONUS land masses. In other words, this system could eventually pose a threat to the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean islands. I would strongly admonish eastern Caribbean residents to keep a watchful eye on this one, especially as we move deeper into August.

This is NOT necessarily a fish...

700-850 mb streamline analysis:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

TAFB surface analysis:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Atl_Tropics.gif

Note that the surface cold front over the far Southeastern CONUS (S Georgia/N Florida) will become a stationary front within the next ~28 hours. Low level ridging will expand SW, accordingly.

Islanders, watch this one.

Tkanks my friend , i have noticied your advice it's a nice post as usual , we will see what really happens but do not worry i'm monitoring this in case of but we're far away from reality for the moment.... so we're envoying our summer holidays before a possible thread

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 24 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

00z GFS at 42 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

00z GFS at 54 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

00z GFS at 66 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif There is a trio.

.

[Weatherfreak14]

00z GFS at 24 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

00z GFS at 42 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

00z GFS at 54 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

I wonder why the GFS is showing the system at the location it is now not until 42 hrs from now.?

[Mecklenburg]

i'm getting excited about this...

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 24 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

00z GFS at 42 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

00z GFS at 54 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

00z GFS at 66 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif There is a trio.

00z GFS at 78 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif Trio continues showing.

00z GFS at 96 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif Two lows now.

00z GFS at 102 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

00z GFS at 138 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif Hmm,Caribbean Bound?

[HURAKAN]

00z GFS at 66 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif There is a trio.

A quartet is you include the one in front!

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree that if convection continues that it will be an invest by sometime tomorrow and will probably be mentioned in the TWO, hinting at development.....Africa looks pretty active, and based upon improving conditions for these waves, perhaps I was wrong about the lull for the next couple of weeks....

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 24 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

00z GFS at 42 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

00z GFS at 54 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

00z GFS at 66 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif There is a trio.

00z GFS at 78 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif Trio continues showing.

00z GFS at 96 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif Two lows now.

00z GFS at 102 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

00z GFS at 138 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif Hmm,Caribbean Bound?

00z GFS at 168 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif Strong low east of Lesser Antilles

00z GFS at 180 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[canetracker]

The 1st one sure looks Carribean bound to me and maybe even the wave behind that.

[ConvergenceZone]

yea, after taking about an hour to look at all of the maps, there's a good chance that IF this one does hold together that it will affect the carib and possibly the USA further down the road....

[HURAKAN]

Good night. Tomorrow should be intersting or more of the same!!!

[canetracker]

00z GFS at 168 Hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif Strong low east of Lesser Antilles

Does look like a strong wave and a another not as strong one behind it too.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 24 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

00z GFS at 42 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

00z GFS at 54 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

00z GFS at 66 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif There is a trio.

00z GFS at 78 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif Trio continues showing.

00z GFS at 96 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif Two lows now.

00z GFS at 102 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

00z GFS at 138 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif Hmm,Caribbean Bound?

00z GFS at 168 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif Strong low east of Lesser Antilles

00z GFS at 180 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

00z GFS at 204 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

System entering Eastern Caribbean Sea with Low Pressure near Martinique.

[Derek Ortt]

I dont like the look of that run... if that verifies... we have a train of storms

[Mecklenburg]

I dont like the look of that run... if that verifies... we have a train of storms

but it's great to track down storms... as long as it shuns land...

[canetracker]

Looks like a wagon train!