Late Season Development W. Carib. (Is invest 91L)

[wxman57]

Wxman57 thinks this system will head to Florida too.Read this post above

I don't know if Dr. Masters is looking beyond the next 3-4 days in his outlook. It may well track across the northern Yucatan and into the south-central Gulf by Wed/Thu but then it would be picked up by the SW flow ahead of the approaching front and driven to Florida. Could be just moisture flowing up the front rather than much of a tropical threat, though.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

It appears to be becoming better organized but it's also close to land.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF BELIZE...IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER BELIZE OR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF HONURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[jinftl]

Code Orange.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF BELIZE...IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER BELIZE OR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF HONURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[Ivanhater]

Canadian 108 hours



Nogaps weak system Louisiana


GFS slow..panhandle

[Sanibel]

I think this system is the remnants of TD16 that stalled over Central America but then got pulled back out by the Oklahoma trough and reformed when it finally plunged. That's why I was suggesting we wait on it before writing it off because climatology was begging it.

[wxman57]

I think this system is the remnants of TD16 that stalled over Central America but then got pulled back out by the Oklahoma trough and reformed when it finally plunged. That's why I was suggesting we wait on it before writing it off because climatology was begging it.

I'm looking at a long-range satellite loop (3 days) that clearly shows 16 moving into the East Pac. What's left in the NW Caribbean is some moisture that was following 16.

[cycloneye]

Is invest 91L.Go to Active Storms Forum.

[AJC3]

I think this system is the remnants of TD16 that stalled over Central America but then got pulled back out by the Oklahoma trough and reformed when it finally plunged. That's why I was suggesting we wait on it before writing it off because climatology was begging it.

I'm looking at a long-range satellite loop (3 days) that clearly shows 16 moving into the East Pac. What's left in the NW Caribbean is some moisture that was following 16.

Yuppers. The leftover vort center from 16 moved all the way over into the EPAC. The interesting thing is during the past 4 days there has been a persistent feature which resembled more a WPAC monsoon trough extending from the extreme western Caribbean across northern CENAM into the EPAC side. The current disturbance spun up within the east side of this trough.