Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

[TampaFl]

From NWS Tampa on slow start to the hurricane season and the impacts to the U.S. and to Florida as to number of hits. Very interesting graphs. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/TopNews/PDF/ClimatologyofHurricaneSeasonsWithaLateStart.pdf


Robert

[Cookie]

Just by offhand logic, if you compared this season to 2004 when Bonnie finally showed up as a surface core in the Yucatan Straits around the end of July you might say we should see development in around a week. But 2004 was part of an Atlantic Oscillation surge peaking in 2005. So the safer bet would say 2009 is drier and less favorable than 2004. An extension of the negativity into August is probably a wise assumption. As I posted before, with all the talk every year of an Andrew type season this might actually be such a season.

slightly off topic would an Atlantic oscillation sure effect the whole Atlantic?

[Sanibel]

slightly off topic would an Atlantic oscillation sure effect the whole Atlantic?

I guess.


(Of course, in no way am I suggesting the late start guarantees an Andrew type storm. I know better, as should anyone who frequents this board.)

[cycloneye]

If the Atlantic 2009 hurricane season is going to be an average season,the ramp up occurs in August,especially after the 15th.

[LaBreeze]

I just don't see anything anytime soon. Oh well, at least the severe heat has let up somewhat around here with some of the showers.

[clfenwi]

Interesting charts indeed.

Out of curiosity, I compared the Pacific storm numbers from start of season to July 20 to the Atlantic totals, to see if there was any notable relationships:



Not much to be gained from that, unfortunately. Just throwing it out there in case someone was wondering the same thing I was.

Edit: Looked at it a slightly different way, looking at the number of named storms the Pacific had at the time the Atlantic had its first named storm:



More of the same, really.

2ND EDIT: Couldn't help but make one more variation: #of Pacific storms when the first Atlantic storm formed compared to the resulting Atlantic ACE:



(On the chart ACE is divided by 10 to make it more comparable, yes I am breaking rules now). When looked at this way, it's 1980 (super-charged by Allen and a long-lived Francis) that's the freakish Atlantic season.

The one thing clear from the three graphs I made:

- If the Atlantic is quiet, but the Pacific fails to gain at least a 5 storm lead, something interesting is going to happen!

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB still thinking a much slower than normal season, but with a somewhat enhanced threat to the East Coast and possibly a Gulf storm of non-tropical origins.


The Gulf has had, it seems, more than its share of upper disturbances dropping in and fronts reaching the coast, but nothing has seemed interesting, yet.

As far as a Northeast system, unless things change, cooler than normal water temps offshore and we are now a month past peak insolation, and the rate of change of sun angle and day length is starting to increase.

[Sanibel]

GOM showing a little more convection, but still raked with shear.

[Cookie]

good old west pacfic keeping things going

[sunnyday]

What was the last year when there was not even one named storm?

[RL3AO]

What was the last year when there was not even one named storm?

Not sure. Its probably happened sometime in the past 5 billion years though.

[HurricaneJoe22]

1949......because they didn't start giving hurricanes names until 1950.

[Hurricaneman]

1949......because they didn't start giving hurricanes names until 1950.

there has never been a year without at least a tropical storm sence record have been kept

[Sanibel]

BOC is a mess and badly sheared, but it's a sign that the season is attempting to form something.

[Category 5]

BOC is a mess and badly sheared, but it's a sign that the season is attempting to form something.

No its not, seasons cancelled, you didnt know that?

[DanKellFla]

BOC is a mess and badly sheared, but it's a sign that the season is attempting to form something.

No its not, seasons cancelled, you didnt know that?

blah blah blah you should know better...... <insert some statistics about seasons starting in August> See what I mean. blah blah blah .... You will be eating your words in a few weeks..... blah blah blah

[Category 5]

BOC is a mess and badly sheared, but it's a sign that the season is attempting to form something.

No its not, seasons cancelled, you didnt know that?

blah blah blah you should know better...... <insert some statistics about seasons starting in August> See what I mean. blah blah blah .... You will be eating your words in a few weeks..... blah blah blah

1914 this, 2004 that. blah blah blah.

[Macrocane]

1914 this, 2004 that. blah blah blah.

LOL can I add this: 1977 blah blah blah and 1983 blah blah blah and then 1992 blah blah blah but seriously the most important thing, it only takes one

[cycloneye]

2009 will be like 2009 period!

[Gustywind]

You're all funny that why love this board and the 2009 season