Disturbance fizzeled in Eastern Atlantic

[HUC]

Still here,and spining somewhat

[size=85]Edited by cycloneye to take out a very long link[/size]

[HUC]

Heu,i cannot send images......

[cycloneye]

Heu,i cannot send images......

The link is very long.I will help you making a hyperlink of it to be very small.

NRL Image

There you go HUC.

[HUC]

Ok Luis,the cloud mass is in my opinion,the healthier in this location,till then!!!!

[gatorcane]

By dipping southwest, it may have gotten close or into the ITCZ but it is avoiding the dust. It's really not that uncommon to see Cape Verde systems dip WSW for a bit first before resuming more of west movement.



Upper-level winds look favorable for development also. The image below shows some light west winds aloft about where the wave is at. All of the strong wind shear is off to the north, so looks like this wave will avoid that, at least for the next 5 days or so. I agree with Wxman57, if it is blowing up convection tomorrow like this maybe it will be an invest but certainly expect NHC to mention it. Looks like the tropics are becoming gradually more favorable with each passing day...

[brunota2003]

The key thing at the moment is it continues to produce storms...it isn't just holding onto the storms it had before, but new ones are forming (most notably over that "swirl" we noted earlier, which became exposed, but now has convection over it once again).

[Blown Away]

Convection with a swirl has rebounded this evening near 10N/25W. Maybe a code yellow tomorrow if the wave can maintain the convection. Not much, but something to look at. Since the beginning of the season I have had the opinion the El Nino intensity had progressed slower than predicted and SFL would be most vulnerable from an east strike mid to late August, but come September the El Nino would shut the east strike door. I'm still waiting for the easterly flow which tells me the Bermuda High is not that strong rate now, but come @August 15th I expect the usual easterly flow to begin, I don't need a weather model to predict that. My gut tells me if we get a developing system in the Atlantic MDR in early August it will take a traditional track towards the Islands and then towards the SE US or recurve offshore. This wave has my attention.

[Derek Ortt]

cannot say that Florida is saved from an east strike in september of an el nino

They had 2 in 2004

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll be appreciative when it reaches 30ºW and I can look at it at 30 minute intervals in living color from a US launched weather satellite.


With coasts in three directions, if one has to pick a mainland 48 state in a slow El Nino year, ya have to go with Florida. Not saying this is Florida's year (again), but that would be the way to bet at the track.

[Blown Away]

cannot say that Florida is saved from an east strike in september of an el nino

They had 2 in 2004

Wasn't the El Nino just developing in August 2004 making the El Nino conditions very weak for the active part of the hurricane season? It seems this years El Nino will be a little more intense than 2004, right? Any similarities between the 2004 and 2009 El Nino intensities so far? I wouldn't have my cool avatar if it weren't for the 2004 El Nino hurricane season!

[srainhoutx]

cannot say that Florida is saved from an east strike in september of an el nino

They had 2 in 2004

Boy, do I remember.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

you bet. 3 months without power.empty stores. During the 4 weeks from late august to mid september it was like being cut off from the rest of the USA

[gatorcane]

I'll be appreciative when it reaches 30ºW and I can look at it at 30 minute intervals in living color from a US launched weather satellite.


With coasts in three directions, if one has to pick a mainland 48 state in a slow El Nino year, ya have to go with Florida. Not saying this is Florida's year (again), but that would be the way to bet at the track.

Ed, that link Cycloneye provided above is about as real-time as you can get. If you click the link and animate, you'll notice some convection on the west side of the "spin" and then a new blowup of convection just over or east of the spin in the last couple of hours (as Brunota mentions). That blow-up is signficant as it may just be the first swirl this season off Africa that is not getting crushed by SAL and shear...still I give it a low chance of development at this time until it can sustain convection around the "swirl" for more than 24 hours.

[Derek Ortt]

cannot say that Florida is saved from an east strike in september of an el nino

They had 2 in 2004

Wasn't the El Nino just developing in August 2004 making the El Nino conditions very weak for the active part of the hurricane season? It seems this years El Nino will be a little more intense than 2004, right? Any similarities between the 2004 and 2009 El Nino intensities so far? I wouldn't have my cool avatar if it weren't for the 2004 El Nino hurricane season!

the season was largely shut down after Jeanne. There was nothing, except for badly sheared Matthew in the western Atlantic after Jeanne. The el nino followed the typical pattern of shutting down the season in late September

[Blown Away]

I'll be appreciative when it reaches 30ºW and I can look at it at 30 minute intervals in living color from a US launched weather satellite.


With coasts in three directions, if one has to pick a mainland 48 state in a slow El Nino year, ya have to go with Florida. Not saying this is Florida's year (again), but that would be the way to bet at the track.

Ed, that link Cycloneye provided above is about as real-time as you can get. If you click the link and animate, you'll notice some convection on the west side of the "spin" and then a new blowup of convection just over or east of the spin in the last couple of hours (as Brunota mentions). That blow-up is signficant as it may just be the first swirl this season off Africa that is not getting crushed by SAL and shear...still I give it a low chance of development at this time until it can sustain convection around the "swirl" for more than 24 hours.

Based on the past 12 hours, IMO this wave has maintained it's convection and appears it will stay south of the SAL. This wave looks good on the IR tonight. IMO, Code yellow if it looks this good tomorrow and development, if any at all, would not occur before 40W. Since I was very young I've always enjoyed the Farmer's Almanac and it predicts a potential tropical system for the SE around mid August, this wave and the Almanac's timing are in line! For those who want to bash the Almanac, remember before the 1990's, most of us only had library books, Farmer's Almanac, and John Hope to predict hurricanes!

[Blown Away]

cannot say that Florida is saved from an east strike in september of an el nino

They had 2 in 2004

Wasn't the El Nino just developing in August 2004 making the El Nino conditions very weak for the active part of the hurricane season? It seems this years El Nino will be a little more intense than 2004, right? Any similarities between the 2004 and 2009 El Nino intensities so far? I wouldn't have my cool avatar if it weren't for the 2004 El Nino hurricane season!

the season was largely shut down after Jeanne. There was nothing, except for badly sheared Matthew in the western Atlantic after Jeanne. The el nino followed the typical pattern of shutting down the season in late September

Based on the progression of the El Nino so far, what's your predicted date when the El Nino shuts down the 2009 hurricane season?

[HurricaneJoe22]

It's hurricane season? Could have fooled me.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Almost bed time, but GFS through 4 days has a strong wave, maybe even a depression ballpark 15ºN and 45ºW heading Northwest. And GFS also seems to like wave still over Africa that goes feet wet in 4 days.

Just hotlinked pics on long range model thread, confident that it'll be on next page by tomorrow nights 0Z GFS run so my commentary not matching (maybe) the model images isn't obvious.

[wxman57]

It's certainly less impressive today. I have visible Meteosat imagery coming in every 15 minutes and can't see any circulation. Convection is disorganized. No reason for the NHC to take much notice of it as far as a mention in the TWO or an invest. I'd say that development chances have gone down today, and they were very low yesterday.

[Gustywind]

ITCZ seems rather active this morning...