2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is here

[CrazyC83]

I've lived in New Orleans for 43 years, and have experienced countless hurricanes and storms. But not a single one of them were even close to what I experienced with Katrina! I witnessed the catagory 3 hurricane conditions myself! Cat 3 conditions were felt as far west as the New Orleans Int. airport! I can go on and on and list everything I saw but, I'll simply say that I experienced and witnessed with my own two eyes the utter devastation that was caused by the WIND! As for the levees.....it was Katrina's mammoth size and 28 foot storm surge that devastated and flooded the city of New Orleans.

With the possible exception of the easternmost part which is mostly undeveloped, New Orleans did NOT experience Category 3 conditions in Katrina. (For the most part, wind was Cat 1 level in the city with Cat 2 winds in the eastern parts).

[cycloneye]

Lets see what NOAA will have next thursday in terms of range of numbers but the discussion of the factors will be the most important thing.

Press conference announcing NOAA 2010 Atlantic hurricane season outlook.
WHEN:
Thursday, May 20, 11:00 am EDT.
WHO:
Dr. Jane, Lubchenco UnderSecretary of Commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator
Rich Serino, Deputy administrator, Federal Emergency Management Agency
Dr. Robert Atlas, director of NOAA%u2019s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. Dr. Gerry Bell, NOAA%u2019s lead hurricane seasonal forecaster
Dr. Ed Rappaport, deputy director, NOAA%u2019s National Hurricane Center
Dr. Frank Marks, director, NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division

[cycloneye]

NOAA delays the May 20 forecast? I haven't seen a press release by NOAA but I found this articule by the Sun-Sentinel newspaper.

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/we ... forecasts/

[HURAKAN]

I'm actually surprised they're delaying releasing the forecast. Why?

[cycloneye]

I would like to know more about this supposed delay by NOAA from our pro mets as they may have inside information. I have left the May 20 date at the list of events on the first post of thread until I see official information.

[cycloneye]

I heard a rumor that NOAA will release the May outlook on the 27th. Any press release to confirm this?

[Cookie]

their is a possibility that their could be a named storm by the time they release their forecast if they wait till the 27th?

[cycloneye]

I guess we will have to wait until tommorow to see if NOAA releases the forecast as at this hour I have not seen any press release by NOAA notifying the change of date.

[cycloneye]

Time goes very fast and look where the countdown is,in single digits.

[KWT]

Quite amazing to think we are into the final countdown now!

Could well see a named storm before the season actually arrives, if that happens, then we'd be on our way to an active season thats for sure given the background signals in place...

[HURAKAN]

Single digits now ....

[JtSmarts]

Wow just a week away!

[cycloneye]

Another very active forecast is released,this one by a private firm.

http://www.2010season.Unapproved Site.com/

[Macrocane]

Wow!, according to them this season could see as much activity as 2005, that's really extreme. Let's wait for the NHC forecast and the CSU update to see if they expect such level of activity too.

[KWT]

Yep it is an extreme forecaast, I'd be very surprised if it gets quite that busy mind you but you've gotta be thinking at least 16+ and probably getting towards the magic 20 mark.

Just a week to go before we offically start with this hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Another private firm (WSI) is out with their forecast 18/10/5.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100525/us_ ... i_forecast

[HURAKAN]

Less than 120 hours!!!

[brunota2003]

Woo! Less than a 5 day forecast away from "The Final Countdown"

[cycloneye]

TSR released a preseason forecast before they unvail the June forecast on the 4th. This preseason forecast calls for 16/8/4.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

An excerpt from discussion.

As we approach the start of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issues its preseason
hurricane forecast. The forecast includes discussion of the underpinning climate factors and the
remaining uncertainties. The report is issued to inform the (re)insurance community and help preparations
for a potentially stormy season.
At present every main indicator points to hurricane activity being well-above norm in 2010. TSR predicts that
Atlantic basin – including the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico – and United States
(U.S.) landfalling hurricane activity in 2010 will be 55% above the long-term (1950-2009) norm. This abovenorm
level is expected to be even higher if La Niña (lower than norm sea surface temperatures in the
tropical Pacific) develops during the second half of 2010. Even now there is a high likelihood that basin
and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity in 2010 will be in the top third of years historically.
For the Atlantic basin, the pre-season outlook forecasts:
 A 77% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, an 18% probability of a near-normal
season and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
 16 tropical storms including eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes. This compares to long-term
norms of 10, six and three respectively.
For U.S. landfalling activity the outlook calls for:
 A 74% probability of above-normal U.S. landfalling hurricane activity, a 19% likelihood
of a near-normal season and only a 7% chance of a below-normal season.
 Five tropical storm strikes on the U.S., including two hurricanes. This compares to long-term norms
of three and 1.5 respectively.
The pre-season outlook also predicts two tropical storm strikes on the Caribbean Lesser Antilles,
of which one is expected to be a hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

TSR released a preseason forecast before they unvail the June forecast on the 4th. This preseason forecast calls for 16/8/4

Funny bc I did an average of the seasons between 1995-2009 and took out the El Niño years (97, 02, 06, 09) and the average comes out to be 16/8/4