EPAC / Caribbean development later this week?

[cycloneye]

What I know is that NOGAPS is one of the most conservative global models around and to do what is doing so far speaks volumes.

[Ivanhater]

Has nogaps ever been right about anything?

Yes

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

This may not be the system the models are developing but the low near the Yucatan is a fighter

[tolakram]

Shear is dropping in that area.

[jaxfladude]

Too soon.....2010 already has too many natural disasters and man made ones.
It is only 05-20-2010.
I fear the Hurricane Gods want a little(to a lot of)attention too.

[lonelymike]

I'll get excited when Wxman57 and other pro mets start jumping on board until then.....Enjoy the silence.

[KWT]

Yep big convective blow-up occuring with the Yucatan low, I think this region can't totally be discounted given there is already a circulation in place, esp if shear eases off somewhat...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Evil Jeremy]

If convection keeps on blowing up at this intensity while maintaining a circulation, I wouldn't be surprised to see this invested by this time tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

[tailgater]

Looks like the TPC thinks it will move off to the NW or NNW and die off. sounds good to me!

[drezee]

If it were June/July there would be recon scheduled...

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, looks very impressive right now. Let's see if the convection persists.

[xcool22]

i give 33%development imo.

[gatorcane]

Not going to happen with the Western Caribbean low. Shear is too strong. Only matter of time before the convection is sheared off. Probably by tomorrow morning it will be nearly sheared. Even 72 hours from now the shear is still too strong. A large Upper-level Low dives down from the Great lakes and off the SE US only enhancing the upper-level winds across the GOM and NW Caribbean. In fact this is the low that eventually could form the subtropical low that is sparking some interest in the other thread. Still not impressed with SW Caribbean chances or with this subtropical low possibility off the SE US.

Here we are at 72 hours. Shear is ripping across all of the GOM, Florida, Western Atlantic, and NW Caribbean, typical of May.

[southerngale]

Guys, please try to remember to save the images you post, then upload them with tinypic, ImageHosting, ImageShack, etc. instead of just hotlinking. When you post them with the original links, the image will eventually change and then you have a disparity between the image and the accompanying comments.

We've requested this numerous times over the years, but many people still hotlink.

[Ivanhater]

00z Nogaps heads towards Puerto Rico

[xcool22]

look at cmc models

[stormpulsematt]

(First time poster, long time reader...)

Which if any of the models account for the high-shear environment? Sounds like that is going to be the limiting factor ...