Wave WSW of CV Islands

KWT · #101 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:05 pm

Not totally nothing, the ECM does still show a sharp wave about 30N/70W but this run looks like it gains enough early lattiude to probably recurve...that wave is almost certainly sourced from the same region...

A weak upper low form in the Azores high which lifts it up enough to prevent it staying too deep like on the 0z run.

Weatherfreak000 · #102 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:08 pm

Note: The EURO wasn't too keen on Alex or Bonnie either.

Wx_Warrior · #103 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:13 pm

LOL....Like the Aerosmith song said: "DREAM ON."

Ivan, the lid back on until the 0z? I expect a pickup 2nd week of Aug or so....

#104 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:16 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:LOL....Like the Aerosmith song said: "DREAM ON."

Ivan, the lid back on until the 0z? I expect a pickup 2nd week of Aug or so....

Lol lid still coming off :lol:

The Euro is sniffing this storm out and imo will probably pick back up tonight or tomorrow.

In fact, it still has a strong reflection on this run, just a lot further north

Wx_Warrior · #105 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:18 pm

Maybe the EC will be a player this year!

KWT · #106 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:27 pm

Actually I've changed my mind a little Ivanhater, look at the 168hrs run:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

Notice just to the east of the Caribbean, thats the wave there from the looks of things...the feature the ECM tries to get going looks like some sort of transition from an upper feature.

#107 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:32 pm

KWT wrote:Actually I've changed my mind a little Ivanhater, look at the 168hrs run:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

Notice just to the east of the Caribbean, thats the wave there from the looks of things...the feature the ECM tries to get going looks like some sort of transition from an upper feature.

I'm not sure KWT..at 72 hours the Euro tracks this wave just SW of the Cape Verde (see the almost closed circle) all the way to the NE of the Bahamas. This would fit well with the same area it was developing last night.

KWT · #108 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:36 pm

There is certainly some energy from the wave that causes the development though there is alreaqdy something up there, so looks like it tries some sort hybrid system. There is a ULL present pretty much over where the ECM places the higher Vorticity which probably suggests its a hybrid feature as well...thats why the wave lifts due north towards the developing weakness.

Either way I'd be surprised if that track comes off, but there are weaknesses about so who knows

TheBurn · #109 Postby **TheBurn** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:40 pm

KWT · #110 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:44 pm

Good convection there TheBurn but it sure does look attached to the ITCZ its got to be said.

#111 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:49 pm

We are looking at a teaser in that area of convection South of the CV Islands as this is still inland and it has been introduced for a test as PGI21L.

NRLPGI21L

General information on PGI21L

#112 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:54 pm

Impressive circulation

KWT · #113 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 2:56 pm

I wonder how many of those test invests they are going to do on CV waves this season, would be nice if they kept on doing them!

Looks like the Wave Axis is behind the convection, classic strong easterlies occuring there.

Hurricane · #114 Postby **Hurricane** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:23 pm

Can someone please explain to me why this isn't code yellow?? Im talking about the wave that has already emerged,

#115 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:26 pm

Hurricane wrote:Can someone please explain to me why this isn't code yellow?? Im talking about the wave that has already emerged,

Maybe the NHC doesn't think it will develop in the next 48 hours. Lately it has been difficult to anticipate the NHC´s next move.

Florida1118 · #116 Postby **Florida1118** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:33 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Hurricane wrote:Can someone please explain to me why this isn't code yellow?? Im talking about the wave that has already emerged,

Maybe the NHC doesn't think it will develop in the next 48 hours. Lately it has been difficult to anticipate the NHC´s next move.

Even then it could get a 0%.

KWT · #117 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:54 pm

Yeah sure does feel like that Hurakan doesn't it, but its probably just because we've never had so much info before.

#118 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 3:58 pm

Already has more west winds then Bonnie had.

#119 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 4:01 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Hurricane wrote:Can someone please explain to me why this isn't code yellow?? Im talking about the wave that has already emerged,

Maybe the NHC doesn't think it will develop in the next 48 hours. Lately it has been difficult to anticipate the NHC´s next move.

If this convection persists than I think Code Yellow, maybe at 00z? If development occurs aren't most of the models showing enough weakness to lift this system N of the islands and recurve E of the CONUS or is this the wave the ECMWF was showing in a few runs in the NE Caribbean in about 240 hours?

Weatherfreak000 · #120 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Wed Jul 28, 2010 4:03 pm

All three tropical wave players in the Carib, at 40W and about to emerge Africa are flaring up nicely today.

Wave WSW of CV Islands

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