#103 Postby chaser1 » Fri Aug 13, 2010 10:13 am
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
It's funny, everyone seems to champion one model verses another and yet I think each have tendencies and I tend to favor some for early indication of cyclogenisis and yet others, more for overall pattern as it relates to motion, wind shear, etc.
GFS has certainly been consistent lately, regarding the development of the wave over C. Africa. Latest 6Z would have the low off the African coast around 120 hr's. Given the recent "tweaking" to the model, along with it's normal tendency to give greater weight towards trough values, and then finally looking at ( and perhaps giving more credence towards ) the Euro upper air modeling......, I'm just not so quick to assume this system will re-curve prior to reaching 40W.
If this system does in fact emerge that far north, while deepening so fast ( as GFS depicts ) that we already have a potentially "named" storm "east" of the CV Islands...., well than I would guess that any 500mb troughiness at that longitude would certainly be cause for a N.W. motion off the bat. I think we first really need to sit back, have a glass of wine, let some time elapse, and perhaps at about 72 hours out begin to take stock of far north is this wave as well as how deep the system already is. If GFS is overplaying how vertically deep this wave is ( from surface up to 500mb ), than perhaps this wave might push off the African coast and not start to develop until at least 30W. My other thought on this is that the Euro has not picked up on this system as a significant surface reflection yet, thus more reason for pause that perhaps the GFS is just slightly amiss. Curiously, the Euro 500mb does show a reflection of a low at approx. 144 hr.s from last night's 0Z run. This would seem quite "in-line" with the GFS model timing for this wave emerging of the coast. The Euro 500mb does indicate some WNW to NW tendency with this feature out to 192 hr. and has it around 16N and 38W, and then finally "drops" this feature thereafter. Assuming greater credence to the Euro's modeling for upper air, my guess is that we may well have a developing tropical cyclone approx. 8 days from now, potentially around 16N and 38W. This system at such a time will either feel the influence of a trough to it's N.E., or perhaps just make it 5-10 degrees farther west to what would appear to be fairly solid ridging over the W. Atlantic at that time. If in fact this ridging is truly displaced farther north than average, than a mid-Altlantic risk ( rather than Florida/Caribbean/Gulf area ) would seem plausible downstream.
Bottom line, I'll eat my shorts if this system were to actually be exactly at the above mentioned point, at exactly the same time frame. A little faster, perhaps a little slower, 2-3 degrees further south or further north might likely make all the difference in the world with regards to whether this system ( if it even exists then... ) gets within 500 miles of Miami, Wilmington, or the Azores. Though I would bet against any CV system this year, to trek westward all the way across the Atlantic and right to Cancun, who knows....., it may never even develop due to SAL, shear, etc., and suddenly this wave find itself under a huge upper high in the south/central Caribbean and only then develop into something.
My first guess? Cat.4 approaching the the mid-Atlantic coast ( Carolina's or points northward ), but who really knows - could just as easily wind up a "fish spinner" after all.
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Andy D
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