Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat? (Is Invest 97L)

[capepoint]

With 2 systems in front of her there may/should be some upwelling that would slow intensification down until a bit later I would think. If D and E curve northward and F stayed weak she may not do much until after she gets into clear water which would help it move further westward.
Just my idiots uneducated opinion anyhow.......

PS. I hope I am wrong because if I am correct I may end up having to deal with F. Not something I want to do.

[Aric Dunn]

Sure is another Pretty wave coming off the coast of africa right now..

[KWT]

The Euro has shown a strong westward bias this season, but that kind of track is certainly possible. I'll let you know for sure in 2 weeks.

Interesting you say that, its shown a east bias with Danielle so far!

Whilst I think there is a real risk this one follows Earl's tracks I'm thinking this one actually has a good shot at getting pretty close right now...

The longer it takes to get going the greater the risk....

Amazing to think we could have 3 hurricanes in the space of say 10 days, gotta love the tropics!

[cycloneye]

The latest on the wave that will emerge Africa tommorow.

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps pretty far south with Fiona

[cycloneye]

[Lowpressure]

Makes me think of 1979 David and Frederick.

[Ivanhater]

Taking a dip into the water

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Officially a tropical wave according to latest 00Z TPC Surface Analysis

[Vortex]

This is the one to really watch...currently just exiting Africa and will be trackfurther south...


00z Nogaps



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Wx_Warrior]

0z GFS with a little help from Earl, gobbles it up....lots of real estate ahead.

[Wx_Warrior]

Long range EURO....little "fiona" follows big bro Earl.

[supercane]

Latest with sat, obs, shear, convergence, divergence overlays:

[ColinDelia]

There's about a one degree area of 50 "units" of vorticity NE of clouds. Looks different and stronger than predicted by 0z models.
I noticed in the 0z GFS that the area of vorticity followed Earl closely and stayed just weak enough to not develop. We'll see in
half an hour how that changes.

[ColinDelia]

0z Canadian has this get into the Caribbean at 168 hours - maybe as a depression

[ColinDelia]

Looks like the 6z GFS mergers this with Earl eventually.

[ronjon]

There's about a one pixel area of 50 "units" of vorticity NE of clouds. Looks different and stronger than predicted by 0z models.
I noticed in the 0z GFS that the area of vorticity followed Earl closely and stayed just weak enough to not develop. We'll see in
half an hour how that changes.

Yeah I just don't buy future Fiona to accerlerate and be absorbed by Earl down the line. It already looks like there is at least +15 deg longitude separating the systems. Plus this disturbance appears like it'll emerge near 10N closer to the CMC and NOGAPs latitude. Hmmm...

[ColinDelia]

[ColinDelia]

Yeah ronjon. Just too early really. It seems this will develop slower than Danielle or Earl - if at all.

[Gustywind]

From Crownweather: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Thursday, August 26, 2010 610 am EDT/510 am CDT

Discussion
Tropical Wave Near The Coast of Africa:
I continue to keep an eye on a tropical wave that is tracking off of the coast of Africa. I continue to believe that this will be our next tropical depression probably sometime this weekend or at the very latest early next week. Looking at the model guidance for this next system. I am kind of skeptical with some of the guidance like the GFS model which forecasts little or no development because it gets too close to Earl and becomes sheared to death. The reason why I am skeptical is because looking at satellite imagery it appears that this tropical wave has barely moved overnight and I think the spacing between this wave and Earl will be much greater than forecast by the GFS model. The latest European ensemble guidance for days 8 through 10 show a spread in where this system may be. The spread is between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and 25 North/60 West. It should also be noted that the latest Canadian model forecasts very slow development from this tropical wave and forecasts it to travel pretty far west. In fact, it forecasts a west-northwest track right across the Caribbean ending up near western Cuba in 10 days. In addition, some of the Canadian ensemble model members forecast a tropical system to be located anywhere between just east of the Bahamas to the Gulf of Mexico in 10 days. This feature could either be this tropical wave or another system that develops from a homebrew situation. Needless to say, I will be monitoring this tropical wave closely and will keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Friday morning.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.