Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[jdray]

NWS Melbourne (emphasis on bold)

24/12Z MODEL UPDATE...

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE THE TREND OF
SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
LIFT IT NORTH ACROSS CUBA MID TO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO EASTERN
U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
IS REGENERATION OF TC MATTHEW OR A SEPARATE SYSTEM (NICOLE?).
SYSTEMS CAN BE SLOWER COMING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN THAN MODELS
EXPECT SO HPC BRINGS THIS CYCLONE ONLY TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE... AT THAT TIME...GFS HAS IT JUST OFF
THE SW FL COAST AND THE ECMWF IS JUST OFF THE SE FL COAST...BOTH
LIFTING NORTHWARD. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
REGARDING THIS FEATURE SINCE IT MAY NOT EXIST YET SO CONFIDENCE IS
QUITE LOW IN THE EXTENDED FCST.

Glad to know they know much more than we do

I have found Melbourne to be more forthright and open on their analysis than Miami usually is.
Maybe due to the size of the audience but I usually check on Melbourne's take on things since Miami generally is very conservative and close to the vest on what they discuss.
However, they are being quite open on their thoughts for next week and the possibility of troubles from the tropics:

The weather for middle to end of next week will all depend if any
low develops in the Caribbean Sea like the long ranges models are
showing at this time. At this time will keep scattered probability of precipitation in
the forecast with easterly wind flow...and will continue to monitor
the latest long range models for the middle to end of next week.


Residents and visitors of South Florida need to continue to
monitor the latest information on the tropics from the National
Hurricane Center.

That gives me more pause to be concerned as I find that Miami usually ignores a lot of conjecture.
They are taking the models seriously

NWS JAX is seeing/saying the same things:

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO LOSE ITS MOMENTUM OVER FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. HIGHEST POPS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WORKING INTO GEORGIA. BEYOND TUESDAY MANY QUESTION MARKS
REMAIN AS OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN TOWARD A POSSIBLE
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CREATED BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LATEST
MODEL SUITE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FRINGE EFFECTS TO BEGIN
IMPACTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LOCAL VIDEO WEB BRIEFING ON OUR HOMEPAGE FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SCENARIO.


Even NWS Tallahassee is mentioning it.

[caneseddy]

NWS Tampa (Ruskin) is saying this:

IN THE WAKE OF TS MATTHEW MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
CARRIBEAN AND MOVING INTO THE GULF BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARDS
WESTERN FLORIDA AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. REMAINING SKEPTICAL ABOUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL STORM THAT HAS YET TO DEVELOP...SO
WILL WAIT UNTIL MODEL RUNS DEVELOP MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE
INCORPORATING INTO THE FORECAST.

A bit more consevative which is understandable due to the uncertainty

[Vortex]

18Z Nam H42 broad area of low pressure over western carribean.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

[Vortex]

H54 low beginning to take shape over carribean...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[psyclone]

i think it's fair to say there's potential and it's certainly worth paying attention to but it's also worth remembering that in weather, potential frequently fails to materialize. as entertaining as the long range models can be, at the end of the day more often than not they're worthless. otoh, if there is a well developed system and i'm in the 3 day strike zone....that's a whole different ball game.

[Vortex]

H60 organizing between Honduras and Jamaica...similar to the ECM..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[otowntiger]

i think it's fair to say there's potential and it's certainly worth paying attention to but it's also worth remembering that in weather, potential frequently fails to materialize. as entertaining as the long range models can be, at the end of the day more often than not they're worthless. otoh, if there is a well developed system and i'm in the 3 day strike zone....that's a whole different ball game.

Well stated. That's how to keep things in perspective. I think some of us weather/tropical weather junkies sometimes try to latch onto exciting scenarios and are deflated when model projections don't come to fruition. Maybe I just need to find another hobby to keep me busy between systems. .

[Vortex]

Snipet from NHC at 5pm:


FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

[Vortex]

H66 continues to organize and move slowly NNW...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[cycloneye]

Snipet from NHC at 5pm:


FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

That means NHC has abandoned the revival of Matthew and are in the new system camp.

[Vortex]

H72 traversing some very warm waters with a slow movement North..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[fci]

i think it's fair to say there's potential and it's certainly worth paying attention to but it's also worth remembering that in weather, potential frequently fails to materialize. as entertaining as the long range models can be, at the end of the day more often than not they're worthless. otoh, if there is a well developed system and i'm in the 3 day strike zone....that's a whole different ball game.

Well stated. That's how to keep things in perspective. I think some of us weather/tropical weather junkies sometimes try to latch onto exciting scenarios and are deflated when model projections don't come to fruition. Maybe I just need to find another hobby to keep me busy between systems. .

I have a hard remembering when the local NWS offices have latched on to the long range and paid as much attention to it as much as in today's situation.
And I also don't recall the NHC in a discussion about an existing storm, mentioning models depicting a a totally different tropical cyclone.
Bottom line, I am usually one who almost totally discounts models well into the future, I am not one of the "the sky is falling" weather junkies. I don't even look at long range models with anything more than a passing interest )(and mostly to laugh at how many times the long range has destroyed Florida )
I am not close to saying that now, however; there is too much unanimity in the NHC mentioning it, local NWS offices mentioning it and the Pro Mets and well informed amatuers at S2K mentioning it; to discount it.
All I say is to pay close attention. I know I will be. And relying on the Pro Mets to help guide us through the ups and downs of the forecasts

[Vortex]

H78 continues to organize...favorable conditions aloft...slowly north...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[fci]

H72 traversing some very warm waters with a slow movement North..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

The opening between the high to east and trough to the west looks like a bowling alley for the ball (system) to roll up through. (I know...weird metaphor

[Blown Away]

TAFB seems to be showing the new low in 72 hours? Interesting map?

[Vortex]

H84...stronger...Very favorable conditions...disturbing trends here folks...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[caneseddy]

I said earlier this is giving me reminders of Hurricane Irene from 1999

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Irene_1999_track.png

[gatorcane]

H84...stronger...Very favorable conditions...disturbing trends here folks...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

But it's the NAM>.....

[caneseddy]

H84...stronger...Very favorable conditions...disturbing trends here folks...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

But it's the NAM>.....

That is true, but the Canadian's last run had a direct hit on South Florida, the GFS had landfall north of Tampa; Euro only one missing us to the East

It's all going to depend where the low forms to determine where impact will be (if any)

[gatorcane]

True but at this time, how strong it would be is highly in question and not enough to concerned.

I knew Matthew would not be a problem and wasn't concerned with it....(though I did get quite alot of questions on why I was saying it would not be a problem for Florida).....but I did keep mentioning the eastern system, the SECOND low would be the issue (if at all) not this low...

Now for this system, I want to see it develop and consolidate before I start get concerned. Shear also looks like it could get stronger near Florida due to the deep upper-level low.

ECMWF consistently keeps it as a disorganized low/depression just SE of Florida...pretty consistent with the intensity......GFDL and HWRF just show a broad low but only out through day 5.