Disturbance in the western Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

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blp
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Re: ATL: Disturbance in the west/central Caribbean

#101 Postby blp » Wed Oct 06, 2010 1:22 pm

I think the GFS now is more realistic in showing development later in the range. The MJO will be more favorable right around the time that the GFS is hinting in the long range. There is still too many favorable variables in the NW Caribbean such as the warm SST's and low surface pressures to prevent development for too long. Let see what happens.....

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Re: ATL: Disturbance in the west/central Caribbean

#102 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Oct 06, 2010 1:39 pm

Blown Away wrote:
boca wrote:As long as we have those strong westerlies screaming at Florida were basically safe with anything down in the caribbean.


Yep, in SFL during October if you walk outside and there is no humidity and below average temps, you know no hurricane is a coming from the Caribbean. It's going to take a while to change the current pattern over SFL and by then we will be approaching mid October. Starting to think we won't see anymore CONUS landfalls for 2010. How fortunate the CONUS was this year with all the activity in the basin.



KISS OF DEATH:

you know no hurricane is a coming from the Caribbean

Starting to think we won't see anymore CONUS landfalls for 2010

How fortunate the CONUS was this year with all the activity in the basin
:P
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Re: ATL: Disturbance in the west/central Caribbean

#103 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 1:51 pm

ECM still on it and similar to the GFS at H72...




ECM: H72


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP072.gif
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#104 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 1:51 pm

H96 stronger than prior runs...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ecmwf.html
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#105 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 1:52 pm

H120 more organized and just east of Nic/Honduras


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif
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#106 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 1:53 pm

H168 South of central Cuba...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif
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#107 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 1:54 pm

H192 a bit further west and faster than the 00z run with landfall over central cuba..





http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif
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#108 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 1:55 pm

500mb at H192....if this system is over western cuba given the pattern it would cross SFL given the pattern...something to watch...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif
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Re: ATL: Disturbance in the west/central Caribbean

#109 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:04 pm

Just as the models advertised, a new 850mb vorticity center is forming between Cuba and Panama.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... rod=vor850
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#110 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:09 pm

I noticed that this morning GCANE...nice catch by the models notably by the GFS...
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#111 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:32 pm

ECMWF now developing this area:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0100612!!/
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Re:

#112 Postby CourierPR » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:45 pm

[quote="Vortex"]500mb at H192....if this system is over western cuba given the pattern it would cross SFL given the pattern...something to watch...



Yesterday, in his AccuWx video, JB showed a model that had the system very near SFL late next week.
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#113 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:47 pm

:uarrow: also a bit further west than the 00z run...
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#114 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:51 pm

Interesting to see the 12z ECM has jumped on board with this area, wouldn't be surprised if it does try to develop though whether it becomes anything of real note is somewhat up in the air right now.
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#115 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 3:33 pm

18Z GFS rolls in 1 hour...
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Re: ATL: Disturbance in the west/central Caribbean

#116 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:08 pm

12Z ECM ensembles all over it by 8am Saturday....




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP072.gif
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#117 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:09 pm

12Z UKmet on it by Saturday morning as well...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal072.gif
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#118 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:10 pm

12Z ukmet at h120 just E of Nic/honduras...fairly bullish as well...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif
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#119 Postby Vortex » Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:35 pm

18Z GFS roll time...ECM/GFS/UKMET all depict development of a closed low over the SW carribean within 48-72 hours...GFS has dropped the system the last 2 runs beyond H168. Lets see if that trend continues with the 18Z....
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Re:

#120 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 06, 2010 4:49 pm

Vortex wrote:12Z ukmet at h120 just E of Nic/honduras...fairly bullish as well...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif


Look at that strong trough starting to dig in the Central Plains. That would induce a recurvature to the NE. Question is how close to Florida?
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