Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion by the predict team about PO7L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P07L.html

P07L
13N, 39W
925hPa

GFS has the weakest depiction of P07L. In an attempt to get as many forecast positions out of GFS, I dropped down to 925 hPa. However, it does not make much of a difference, especially for the other models, which have a distinct depiction of P07L at all three levels (700, 850, and 925 hPa).

ECMWF: ECMWF now looks more like UKMET, intensifying P07L.

GFS: Consistent story. Ignores the eastern development of an OW max, especially up at 700 hPa. However, today I tracked down at 925 hPa because the pouch is more clearly defined now at lower levels. The story for GFS remains the same, though: A large, distinct pouch at analysis gradually dissipates as it moves toward the Caribbean.

UKMET: UKMET remains consistent: Develops a tropical storm with a track that stays farther north than that of weakening GFS.

NOGAPS: For the past few days, NOGAPS has killed P07L. Today, NOGAPS maintains it until 120 hours.

[Ivanhater]

Looking through the 00z model suite, this will be very interesting.

It looks like this disturbance will start really coming together as it approaches the NE Islands. There is a trough but it lifts out very quickly and is replaced by a VERY strong building ridge off the East coast.

The UKMET has a stronger ridge throughout.

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[Sanibel]

The Central Atlantic wave could have a twist to it. I could also convect-out better once it gets across. However I think the Caribbean is hostile.

[Kingarabian]

Just like last year. USA dodged a lot of hurricanes because of them re curving. Seems to be the case this year.

[South Texas Storms]

It's way too early to know if the trend of recurving hurricanes will continue this season.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just like last year. USA dodged a lot of hurricanes because of them re curving. Seems to be the case this year.

Lol whatever helps you feel better. But for the record, there havent yet been any hurricanes to base that assumption on...

[Ivanhater]

Just like last year. USA dodged a lot of hurricanes because of them re curving. Seems to be the case this year.

Based on 2 named storms

Moving on to factual posting, the 12z Canadian once again on development

[Blown Away]

At 144, looks like a recurve or is that when the ridge begins to build and drive it west??

[ConvergenceZone]

Just like last year. USA dodged a lot of hurricanes because of them re curving. Seems to be the case this year.

Wow, this is a very silly statement to make when July isn't even over. Plus, recuring is "normal", but every now
and then a storm sneaks in under a strong ridge of high pressure.

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow:
At 144, looks like a recurve or is that when the ridge begins to build and drive it west??

That is about the time the Euro and others build the ridge back in very strong. Waiting on the longer range Canadian...

Edit: Longer range Canadian just barely recurves before the ridge builds in. This one is gonna be close.

[bamajammer4eva]

Whats to stop this from running into S America since most of the t-storms are below 10N?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET at 72 hours. Yes,I will be seeing plenty of rain,or more than that?

[HURAKAN]

TWD 2:05 pm

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 38W-45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 38W-45W.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow:
At 144, looks like a recurve or is that when the ridge begins to build and drive it west??

That is about the time the Euro and others build the ridge back in very strong. Waiting on the longer range Canadian...

Edit: Longer range Canadian just barely recurves before the ridge builds in. This one is gonna be close.

Fortunately it's long range/fantasy at this point, but what a classic track, rake the NE Caribbean and plow through the Bahamas/SFL into the GOM and likely make a NGOM landfall. Classic!!

[BigA]

I don't expect development for 3 days at least, but it is telling that the percentages are increasing on the probability formation map



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[Vortex]

As is often the case will it make the full connection???? Or do we get a slowdown and a turn NNW in the SE bahamas followed buy a stall as strong ridging builds back in to the N(ECM 00z) and pushed back to the west and into the gulf.....12 Z ECM out within the hour...

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps looks reasonable...makes the turn around hispanolia then slow down just north of the bahamas as strong ridging builds in....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[cycloneye]

Michael,whole 12 CMC run recurves out to sea.



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[Blown Away]

As usual, it's close with the trough connection and ridge building back in. Models that move quicker likely recruve whereas slower models get caught under ridge. Hopefully we get an invest so we can see more model runs.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF at 96 hours.



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