Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

[ROCK]

I think it might be invest worthy, might be tomorrow or Sunday IMO.....

[CrazyC83]

If this wave was bigger it could be an effective SAL-eater. While it would not likely strengthen much in that situation, it could open the door for the next one to be big.

[beoumont]

"Center" of cloud circulation around 14 N. is over 78.5F degree water; but in about 36 hrs. will be over 81 degree ocean. Maybe convection will increase then.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 280614 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

AMENDED IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N40W 14N41W 10N41W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. MOVING W AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
TRPCL ATLC FROM 20N39W TO 10N39W. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLEARING
IS IN THE WIDESPREAD SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN MUCH OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE.

[ronjon]

00z CMC makes this system a caribbean runner.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggemtropical850mbVortSLPGGEMLoop.html

[Nimbus]

Should have been portrayed as a Caribbean runner a long time ago based on the dry air and climo. This morning there is convection down near 10N. Looks like a rock lobster Aric you were right.

[cycloneye]

Popcorn convection occuring at this time.

[wxman57]

It still doesn't look like this system has much of a chance of developing.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 10N TO
20N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO
18N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOWS
UP IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLEARING IS IN
THE WIDESPREAD SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN MUCH OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 27/1148 UTC
SHOWED SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE WAVE.

[Sanibel]

No convection no storm.

[SFLcane]

It still doesn't look like this system has much of a chance of developing.

No chance in the term with stable air just about everywere. Should be watched once near sw atlantic for slight possiblity of development.

[cycloneye]

What this wave will do is this= to clear the path for the ones that will follow.

[GCANE]

What this wave will do is this= to clear the path for the ones that will follow.

Love it

[GCANE]

OW intact thru forecast period on all globals.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2012/P07L.html

Maybe something in Bahamas or west Carib down the road?

LL circulation hanging in there despite lack of convection.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

Nice PV structure at 700mb

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[GCANE]

CMC runs it thru W Carib

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Euro & GFS into Hispaniola

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

NGP over PR into Bahamas with something behind it

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[GCANE]

Amazing it is holding circulation with all the mid-level dry air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

Could have convection fire up when it passes south of the ULL currently at 23N 60W.

Not too much shear associated with it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[tailgater]

Popcorn convection occuring at this time.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... n_loop.gif

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... b_loop.gif

The popcorn is popping very slow right now, might need to add more heat(THCP) and oil(TPW).

[floridasun78]

so models is wrong ? or it expect later in weekend to look better

[Nimbus]

so models is wrong ? or it expect later in weekend to look better

Depends on how far west the low level center travels west before picking up convection and developing.

Often times these dry systems show convection bursts prior to reaching the Caribbean. When that happens they tend to track more poleward. The stronger northern quadrant of the system would become a threat to the big islands in that scenario.

Another favorite spot for development is over near Jamaica, the shear blowing off of South America usually hinders development if the storm doesn't already have a well established circulation before reaching the Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

The structure looks pretty good and might force a convection burst.