Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[Tireman4]

Never put the NAVGEM in a corner....LOL...Still very iffy..but who knows....

[Steve]

only thoughts I have are that several models are picking up the potential, and that Super Typhoon Utor's currently progged tract telegraphs strong ridging across the SE US 6-10 days out. We know there will be a trough dipping down, but if Utor makes 2nd landfall south of Hong Kong, the US trough would likely be either transient, weaker than progged or possibly quicker. This telegraphs to a hit to Mexico or Texas from between ESE and SE which could indicate a strengthening storm at landfall. Best guess is nothing forms, but if something did, we could be looking at a N mex/S-SC Texas hit late next weekend as a mid-grade to potentially notable system.

I'm not calling for any of the above to happen. The post is speculation based on what WPAC teleconnections look like from today. The track Utor ultimately takes over the next 3-4 days will refine the potential. NOT OFFICIAL.

[ROCK]

FIM 12Z.....same as 06Z but stronger in Galveston



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[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensembles TC Genesis probability in the next 5 days.



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[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hmmm, based upon what is shown above, I wonder why the NHC doesn't mention this sort of data in their five day outlooks?

[KatDaddy]

Time for KatDaddy to chime in. Model chatter is becoming more consistent with tropical development in the GOM next weekend and add a weak August front moving into the N Central GOM this week has raised my concern. Alicia 1983 developed from a weak front and disturbance that move offshore of Alabama. Lots potential energy in the GOM next weekend as we enter into the most active portion of Hurricane Season.

[Alyono]

Time for KatDaddy to chime in. Model chatter is becoming more consistent with tropical development in the GOM next weekend and add a weak August front moving into the N Central GOM this week has raised my concern. Alicia 1983 developed from a weak front and disturbance that move offshore of Alabama. Lots potential energy in the GOM next weekend as we enter into the most active portion of Hurricane Season.

development is not from the front. It is from a wave in the caribbean

[Rgv20]

6zGFS EnKF are becoming more confident on something developing in the GOM in the next 6 to 7 days.




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Forecast for 6 days out


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[jeff]

Time for KatDaddy to chime in. Model chatter is becoming more consistent with tropical development in the GOM next weekend and add a weak August front moving into the N Central GOM this week has raised my concern. Alicia 1983 developed from a weak front and disturbance that move offshore of Alabama. Lots potential energy in the GOM next weekend as we enter into the most active portion of Hurricane Season.

development is not from the front. It is from a wave in the caribbean

Indeed it is not the same set up as 1983. Interesting though that models are latching on to more development and a stronger system. Tracks are all over the place with maybe some weak consensus in the ensemble members over the SC Gulf of Mexico on both the GFS and EURO. Not sure if the origin will be the wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea or the spin already noted on either side of Panama along/near the ITCZ. Most models really don't do much until it reaches the Gulf.

[NDG]

I think that if the next 18z & 0z GFS continue with development in the NW Caribbean/southern GOM the NHC will start highlighting the TW in their TWO if not by tonight, tomorrow morning. IMO.

[Rgv20]

If I'm reading the steering charts correct from the 0z and 12zECMWF, if something were to develop its going to be a slow mover with the general direction of the Western Gulf Coast.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET is also showing the area of disturbed weather headed for the NW Caribbean 72 hours from now. It seems to develop from the interaction of the Eastern Caribbean area combining with something moving off the Northern coast of Panama/Colombia when you animate:

Animation:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKTROPAT ... ml#picture

[floridasun78]

so this coming from area by leedwards? that models forecast to be in nw carribbean

[gatorcane]

so this coming from area by leedwards? that models forecast to be in nw carribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Here is my take below. The primary player that sparks genesis towards the end of this week is an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Caribbean which is heading west. Then over Colombia, you will notice some cyclonic turning there which is slowly moving NW. As this area interacts with the Eastern Caribbean disturbance a few days from now, we should expect a big increase in convection in the Southwest Caribbean area that spreads into the NW Caribbean. That could mark the beginning of genesis in the NW Carib.

Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[floridasun78]

so this coming from area by leedwards? that models forecast to be in nw carribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Here is my take below. The primary player that sparks genesis towards the end of this week is an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Caribbean which is heading west. Then over Colombia, you will notice some cyclonic turning there which is slowly moving NW. As this area interacts with the Eastern Caribbean disturbance a few days from now, we should expect a big increase in convection in the Southwest Caribbean area that spreads into the NW Caribbean. That could mark the beginning of genesis in the NW Carib.

Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

ty so mess over south america too move nw

[bamajammer4eva]

Canadian Ensembles look like about 11 of 22 place something SOMEWHERE in the gulf by 132 hrs

[ROCK]

speaking of the CMC...here is the run at 12Z....south Texas to mid coast..hard to tell

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[jeff]

12Z CMC around Baffin Bay

[duris]

New Orleans AFD:

THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BUT GETS INTERESTING FOR THE WEEKEND. IT IS THE ONLY
CONVENTIONAL MODEL CURRENTLY INDICATING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN THE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES NEXT SATURDAY. WHILE NOT TOTALLY BUYING OFF WHOLE-HOG...TELECONNECTIONS WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW WILL CREATE A VULNERABILITY FOR THE AREA SHOULD A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TAFB UNIT...WHO PREPARES THE WIND GRIDS FOR THE OUTER GULF WATERS...IS IN CONSENSUS OF AT LEAST INDICATING A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WIND FIELD TO SKIRT THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS NEXT SATURDAY. WILL INDICATE LIKEWISE FOR NOW
BUT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
INCIDENTLY...THAT WOULD BE THE ANNIVERSARY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969...JUST SAYING.

[bamajammer4eva]

A couple more ideas from NWS Discussions this afternoon

NWS Mobile: uninterested

.LONG TERM...THE LATEST GFS IS ADVERTISING A SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MID WEEK...THEN HEADING NORTH TOWARDS THE
FA...MAKING LANDFALL SATURDAY. WITH THIS THE ONLY RUN WHERE THIS IS
HAPPENING...PLUS THE ECMWF DISCOUNTING ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...HAVE LEFT THE
EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH AS IS ATTM. PREVIOUS SHIFTS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

NWS Birmingham: Concerned

AS THE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE TO OUR WEST A WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL LIKELY TRAVERSE THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING FOR AREAS NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY WITH MODELS
INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT RETROGRESSIVE. ALSO
THE TROPICS COULD BECOME A PLAYER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN LIKELY TO DRAW ANY TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 7 DAY AND THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED

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