Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Riptide]

This system has weakened as it exits Africa - so this may take awhile to get its act together if at all.

It's August 25th...please stop with these silly posts.

[ninel conde]

Here is how the 18Z GFS ends. This system combines with another system and creates this below recurving east of the United States:

not alot for sept 10. has it combined with a cold low or another tropical disturbnace?

[ninel conde]

This system has weakened as it exits Africa - so this may take awhile to get its act together if at all.

It's August 25th...please stop with these silly posts.

it makes sense. the wave has dried up considerably and possibly in response the 18Z is much weaker. it appears to me the environment it just entered is as dry as it has been.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

[Riptide]

There is alot of sinking air in the MDR, the MJO is coming eastward and will give this wave a boost around 50W. Convection will flare up and back down over the next few days.

[ninel conde]

There is alot of sinking air in the MDR, the MJO is coming eastward and will give this wave a boost around 50W. Convection will flare up and back down over the next few days.

i think convection will be rather sparse for awhile. its clearly drying out pretty fast. most likely the next model runs will show if these storms will materialize.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Pay no attention to the 18z GFS. It missed a majority of critical satellite data.

what in the world are you talking about? Seriously... did you just say 18Z runs do not have satellite data?

I guess we have not had any GOES and polar orbiting data since 12Z then. I just learned something

I don't need your smart remarks. You can see for yourself here.

Also, note how I said it missed a majority of the critical satellite data, not all of it.

[hurricaneCW]

There is alot of sinking air in the MDR, the MJO is coming eastward and will give this wave a boost around 50W. Convection will flare up and back down over the next few days.

Absolutely, just look at all the convection in the gulf and western Caribbean due to the MJO, it's still spreading east. In fact the longer the system waits to develop, the more likely it will get further west. Keep in mind that in 2005 most of our storms developed close to home.

[Alyono]

I did see it and I have an idea what is assimilated into models. I've also been at work for 12 hours the last couple of days and am quite cranky

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan made a video about this Wave/pouch 25L but the first part is about TS Fernand.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... september/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I did see it and I have an idea what is assimilated into models. I've also been at work for 12 hours the last couple of days and am quite cranky

Hope this week is better. Sorry for responding so harshly as well.

[tolakram]

I did see it and I have an idea what is assimilated into models. I've also been at work for 12 hours the last couple of days and am quite cranky

Hope this week is better. Sorry for responding so harshly as well.

Thanks for clearing this up.

Let's all try and post supporting evidence then making statements please, it helps everyone involved.

[cycloneye]

0% / 30%

A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

18Z GFS 165 hours. Big difference from 12Z. Weak low impacting Leewards, nowhere near as strong as the 12Z was showing during the same timeframe and significantly further west:

best to wait till 0Z run of GFS and euro. will the GFS be stronger and will the euro show a storm?

That is a big change from the 18Z from the 12Z even in the medium range. I wonder if this is a one-run thing or if it is the beginning of a trend away from developing this now?

If this one doesn't develop somehow, I can't imagine the "season cancel" posts that will spread across this board like wildfire! [/quote

Not really. Most realistic people know not to believe models 24 hrs much less 7 days when there is not even a storm to track. Actually it would be right in line with how things have gone so far. Why change now.

[Fego]

I did see it and I have an idea what is assimilated into models. I've also been at work for 12 hours the last couple of days and am quite cranky

Hope this week is better. Sorry for responding so harshly as well.

Thanks for clearing this up.

Let's all try and post supporting evidence then making statements please, it helps everyone involved.

There we have a good reason why this is the best English speaking weather forum.

[gatorcane]

Here is a loop showing the disturbance just off the coast of Africa:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/africa_disc.html

It certainly has lost alot of thunderstorms and convection as soon as it hit its new environment over water so just maybe the 18Z GFS is picking up on this and why it is less bullish on development than the previous couple of runs.

[ninel conde]

Here is a loop showing the disturbance just off the coast of Africa:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/africa_disc.html

It certainly has lost alot of thunderstorms and convection as soon as it hit its new environment over water so just maybe the 18Z GFS is picking up on this and why it is less bullish on development than the previous couple of runs.

all the convection with it is gone north of the ITCZ. NHC raise the 5 day to 30% though. looks dry ahead of it so we will see if it can regain some oisture.

[jinftl]

0% chance in next 48 hours per NHC for developing - let's see what happens beyond that period...patience!

Here is a loop showing the disturbance just off the coast of Africa:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/africa_disc.html

It certainly has lost alot of thunderstorms and convection as soon as it hit its new environment over water so just maybe the 18Z GFS is picking up on this and why it is less bullish on development than the previous couple of runs.

all the convection with it is gone north of the ITCZ. NHC raise the 5 day to 30% though. looks dry ahead of it so we will see if it can regain some oisture.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z FIM is noticeably weaker also than the 12Z FIM also:

[tolakram]

I can understand weaker, especially since this is a bit early for the MJO pulse. All depends on the timing IMO. Conditions aren't going to improve until ... they improve.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

I can understand weaker, especially since this is a bit early for the MJO pulse. All depends on the timing IMO. Conditions aren't going to improve until ... they improve.

Yeah, its only a matter of time. Conditions should gradually improve by later in the week through September as the MJO settles in.