Possible development in the Caribbean

[blp]

12z Euro has it until 192hr but looks like it slams it into Central America after that.

[gatorcane]

The operational GFS doesn't show much developing but the ensembles do in a strong way. By the way,the 2013 syndrome has taken over the wave as it looks far worse than 24 hours ago.

Here is the upper-level pattern at 240 hours from the 12Z GFS, similar to the CMC around that time with a large anticyclone over the Western Caribbean with a 1007MB low underneath it. Not sure why the operational is not developing this low there on this run.

[blp]

The evolution of this will be complicated due to land interaction and it may take several days to figure out. Alonso makes a good point the catalyst may come from another area. Looking at the vorticity maps of the wave we have been watching the mid level vort is well below 10n and low level vort is almost 3/4 below 10n. This needs to organize north of 10 to have any chance. It may make it to 10n which would cause it to brush the coast but below 10 forget about it.

[Hurricanehink]

An analogy for this storm could be Hurricane Noel in 2007. It was the first tropical storm to form in a month (after everyone said season over), and initially had some hostile conditions while forming near Puerto Rico. When shear relaxed, it was able to cause serious destruction in Hispaniola, later becoming a hurricane near the Bahamas. Not saying it will happen again, but it formed right around this time of year six years ago.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane4867]

18Z GFS 336HR

[cycloneye]

Where is the model consistency on this? Maybe they are not seeing right how the MJO pulse in terms of strengh will affect the Caribbean?

[gatorcane]

Here is the 18Z NAVGEM at 144 hours. I wonder if the GFS is suffering some feedback issues since the other global models are taking this towards the Western Caribbean?

[hurricanes1234]

18Z GFS 336HR

http://i.imgur.com/Gc5HHTB.png

In my opinion, it'll be almost impossible to spawn a 975 mbar hurricane in this season, in the month of November. Maybe it will form, yes, but it might end up like most other storms this year, weak and situated in hostile conditions.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My Opinion and Analysis on the Possible Development Next Week : http://goo.gl/Dri2Xq

Synopsis

A strong tropical wave has limited model support at this time. It will eventually enter the Caribbean Sea by Tuesday. MTWB is tracking this wave.

This post in this forum is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Blown Away]

There are huge differences in timing between some of these models... GFS is in E Caribbean at 336 hours and Navgem in W Caribbean in 144 hours...

[BigB0882]

There are huge differences in timing between some of these models... GFS is in E Caribbean at 336 hours and Navgem in W Caribbean in 144 hours...

I assumed the GFS was showing a different wave that develops. I can't imagine such a huge difference in timing of the same wave.

[gatorcane]

Climate Forecast System (CFS) showing pressure drops in the NW Caribbean in the 6-10 day timeframe:


and even more so in the 11-15 day timeframe:

[blp]

:uarrow: Where is the model consistency on this? Maybe they are not seeing right how the MJO pulse in terms of strengh will affect the Caribbean?

Good point I am also wondering if this predicted strong mjo is wreaking havoc on the GFS. It seems to be the most erratic of all the models. Just two days ago it was showing for several runs a hurricane in W.Carribean and lost it then showed weak development close to Hispaniola and now back to hurricane in the C. Caribbean. I don't remember such wild swings on the GFS before. At least the other models are focusing in consistently on the wave approaching the islands and are only changing with regards to its strength.

[Alyono]

Here is the 18Z NAVGEM at 144 hours. I wonder if the GFS is suffering some feedback issues since the other global models are taking this towards the Western Caribbean?

different system perhaps? The other models are developing something this week. The GFS cane is 2 weeks away

[blp]

If you look at the FIM it agrees with the 18z GFS but also with the other model camp. So the FIM has both possible scenarios depicted now. Quite interesting. Looks like September not November.

[ROCK]

Interesting....and I gave up on another TS in the carb this year...not over til it's over..

[SFLcane]

Favorable mjo now moving into our basin..

[Hammy]

Presently I am going to discount the possibility of development, even with the favorable MJO, as we saw at the peak of hurricane season it was only able to deliver two very minimal hurricanes and one moderate tropical storm. Given that we are getting near the end of the season, and this season (as well as the models) have underperformed quite significantly, and with the increasing shear, the season is effectively over at this point. The models are almost trying to behave as if it is the peak of the season.

[beoumont]

Favorable mjo now moving into our basin..

Maybe it will rain.

[boca]

This season has been over stick a fork in it bring on cooler temps and next hurricane season.The mjo is playing havoc on the gfs model.