2015 Global model runs discussion

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensemble Control run has a 1004mb Low a little south of the operational run during the 240hr time frame....the individual 12zECMWF Ensemble Members are not that aggressive as the operational run but a few do have 1005mb or lower Lows in the same general area. There is one outlier ensemble member that has a 997mb low just South of LA in 10 days..

[Alyono]

Models are in excellent agreement that an area of disturbed weather near 65E, will become a significant cyclone.

Could see a landfall in either Pakistan or Iran. May be MUCH stronger than Yemyin in 2007. This is one area that was shown in Yemyin cannot handle cyclones at all. A strong cyclone there could be as bad or worse than a Bangladesh cyclone

[floridasun78]

lasterst Genesis Probabilities map show area in boc

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF still hanging with the crossover. At 192 hours.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS on the aggressive side with regards to TC development in the GOM!

0zGFS 10 day forecast

[Alyono]

seems like a very broad general area of low pressure. However, that may not be a closed low as we do not have a closed isobar

regardless, more rain and flooding for Texas may occur next week

[Hammy]

Low looks closed on the higher resolution GFS; done a bit of track and satellite research, and the setup is almost reminding me of Arlene in 1993.


http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/1993/gom/ir_sat_gom_6_140.png
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/1993/gom/ir_sat_gom_6_150.png

Edit: EC appears to be up to it's usual 7-8 day disappearing act.

[Alyono]

ec seems to have had it, just weaker

[Dean4Storms]

Well I see the GEM went off the wall in the 00z run with a near Hurricane into P'Cola by next Friday.

[stormlover2013]

You have to look at pattern the high pressure ridge will block it from florida, this will be Mexico to la storm......if something forms

[NDG]

Since the American Media is still not talking about the raging El Niño getting going I guess the models have not gotten the memo yet, hard for anything to get going with so much shear across the Atlantic basin, IMO.
Nothing but EPAC moisture coming across C.A. and MX.

[Alyono]

18Z MU dropped this idea.

I continue to think this idea of Gulf development is a long shot at best. No more than a 1 in 4 chance

[gatorcane]

ECMWF dropped the idea of an EPAC crossover BOC system too...

[BigA]

I think it is unlikely, and likely always was, that an organized tropical cyclone would cross over Mexico into the GOM, or dissipate over Mexico and redevelop in the GOM. A more likely development scenario is that some of the energy/vorticity from the EPAC crosses over Mexico or Central America and develops in the GOM. This is what most GEFS (GFS ensembles) that show development have been showing. I'm not sure about the probabilities of this scenario, but I think it's more likely than an organized TC crossing Mexico into the GOM.

For what it's worth, it looks like the vorticity origin of the CMC development is near the north coast of South America

It's rather hard to know vertical shear 7-9 days out, and at least the GEFS (GFS ensemble) have been showing favorable conditions in the western and central GOM. The GEPS (Canadian ensemble) has higher shear.

[stormlover2013]

Lol Canadian model didn't even know that model exist, jk..... Seems like we will have at least some good tropical moisture come next weekend

[Hammy]

ECMWF dropped the idea of an EPAC crossover BOC system too...

I recall hearing (probably on this forum) that the Euro was upgraded, so let's see if it sticks to it's medium range uncertainty that was prevalent last year. I agree with a few others that whatever develops in the Pacific may simply pull something up out of the Caribbean, and the models could be in the process of trying to resolve this scenario from having had an actual crossover system initially, almost like a back to the drawing board for the runs to figure out how that end result (possible development) would occur.

[Alyono]

0Z MU only has a very weak low

I'd say development chances remain in the 10-20% range, and that may be on the high side. Seems the EPAC convection is producing too much shear over the system, preventing it from really getting going

[Alyono]

EC has also totally dropped the Gulf storm idea. Even CMC trended much weaker.

I'd give this at most a 1 in 5 shot now. May be closer to 1 in 10

[WPBWeather]

EC has also totally dropped the Gulf storm idea. Even CMC trended much weaker.

I'd give this at most a 1 in 5 shot now. May be closer to 1 in 10

Maybe not quite gone yet...

[Alyono]

EC has also totally dropped the Gulf storm idea. Even CMC trended much weaker.

I'd give this at most a 1 in 5 shot now. May be closer to 1 in 10

Maybe not quite gone yet...


http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/673/SAN4R2.jpg

that's the MU ensemble