Tropical wave in the NW Caribbean (Is INVEST 92L)

[stormlover2013]

GFS 18 run still shows tx/la bybrid looking system

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=255

[Hammy]

Chances of development are dropping steadily, each run is slightly to the west of the previous run, similar to the system in September that never formed, if the front is even 12 hours later than what's shown it could mean the system ends up over Mexico.

[stormlover2013]

yep no doubt, I just don't see it happening.......I do think texas and la will get pretty good moisture though next week

[ronjon]

Chances of development are dropping steadily, each run is slightly to the west of the previous run, similar to the system in September that never formed, if the front is even 12 hours later than what's shown it could mean the system ends up over Mexico.

Yeah but it's not August either. The third week of October I suspect anything gets going it'll eventually shift east on future tracks.

[Hammy]

Chances of development are dropping steadily, each run is slightly to the west of the previous run, similar to the system in September that never formed, if the front is even 12 hours later than what's shown it could mean the system ends up over Mexico.

Yeah but it's not August either. The third week of October I suspect anything gets going it'll eventually shift east on future tracks.

Pressures have been significantly higher than normal during much of October so there's still a chance this may be over land during the time the low would have otherwise formed. Either way a good amount of rain is likely to come out of it.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

A little off topic so from what I can see and reading all these post. No tropical development through the weekend. Be it BOC or western CARIB. So why does my weekend planned for fishing in the Keys have to be so screwed up, windy and rain. Not a happy camper right now. Back to talking tropics.

[Steve]

Pseudo Matthew 2004? Not quite but still. He was the last one since Opal to pull that track.

[LarryWx]

0Z MU hits central TX coast with a strong TS (~996 mb) hour 228 (10/25).

Edit: Any others like it? Not easy to find but Jerry of 1989, which was earlier in the month, might be one to consider somewhat:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[1900hurricane]

After Jerry, the only other storm I can think of off the top of my head was an October 1949 hurricane. Tropical cyclones affecting the NW Gulf after September are pretty rare.

[Alyono]

Juan in 1985

Looking at the simulated IR, this is most certainly more tropical in the models this evening

[LarryWx]

0Z CMC: hit on west central LA hour 210 (10/24) at 993 mb. Could be close to a H.

[Hammy]

Track further west once again, and straight north rather than northeast. Development chances dropping even further--tomorrow's runs will probably just have a lot of rain inland over Mexico moving north.

[LarryWx]

Track further west once again, and straight north rather than northeast. Development chances dropping even further--tomorrow's runs will probably just have a lot of rain inland over Mexico moving north.

Hammy, you staying up for the Euro?

The 0Z GEFS has a whole heck of a lot of TX and LA landfalls 10/23-5.

[Alyono]

Track further west once again, and straight north rather than northeast. Development chances dropping even further--tomorrow's runs will probably just have a lot of rain inland over Mexico moving north.

what in the world are you talking about by saying development chances decreasing? How can one come to that conclusion when the models trend more aggressive and more tropical?

[Hammy]

Track further west once again, and straight north rather than northeast. Development chances dropping even further--tomorrow's runs will probably just have a lot of rain inland over Mexico moving north.

what in the world are you talking about by saying development chances decreasing? How can one come to that conclusion when the models trend more aggressive and more tropical?

Model trend has been further west each time, and the movement has been more northward--it just seems like eventually the starting point is going to end up over land and not make it over water to start with if the trend continues.

Hammy, you staying up for the Euro?

Always do.

[LarryWx]

Hammy, you staying up for the Euro?

Always do.[/quote]

It is hard to go to sleep before the Euro in these potentially dramatic situations.

0Z Euro hour 192: 150 miles E of Brownsville moving NE for now 999 mb

Edit: 216: 993 mb H? 150 miles S of LA moving NE but maybe turning more NNE...headed for LA as stronger high in SE US?

Edit: Major flooding TX/LA coasts from very heavy rain (6-10") with it being a slow mover would be a problem if it were to take this track. Just offshore LA at 240.

Bedtime calling lol.

[Alyono]

EC trended stronger

[Hammy]

Euro is almost identical to last run track-wise, so the westward trend seems to be with the GFS.

EC trended stronger

Is it showing up as more tropical as well this run as the GFS went?

[caneman]

Hammy, you can't trust any model some 8 days out in terms of a location it will hit. I do see a trend for development and at this point that seems more important, in my opinion.

[NDG]

Detailed SSTs over the GOM, still very warm over the BOC, warm enough over the rest of GOM, the only sub 80 degs area are the immediate coastal waters of the north central gulf coast.