Normal season is what CSU has in the July outlook.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/748879037871841280
Expert forecasts for 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 for N Atlantic Hurricane Season
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cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 Season: CSU July forecast is up
TWC updates it's forecast.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 Season: CSU July forecast is up
cycloneye wrote:TWC updates it's forecast.
They raised their forecast and CSU lowered theirs am I reading that correctly?
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cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 Season: CSU July forecast is up
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
They raised their forecast and CSU lowered theirs am I reading that correctly?
Both up with one more.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 Season: CSU July forecast is up
cycloneye wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:
They raised their forecast and CSU lowered theirs am I reading that correctly?
Both up with one more.
Okay thanks.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
TSR lowers forecast numbers for the Atlantic Hurricane Season
http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ul2016.pdf
http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ul2016.pdf
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WPBWeather
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
tarheelprogrammer wrote:TSR lowers forecast numbers for the Atlantic Hurricane Season
http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ul2016.pdf
Not sure what they are really saying. They do say most active season since 2012. They missed Joaquin last year completely FWIW.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
WPBWeather wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:TSR lowers forecast numbers for the Atlantic Hurricane Season
http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ul2016.pdf
Not sure what they are really saying. They do say most active season since 2012. They missed Joaquin last year completely FWIW.
Just posting what Philip Klotzbach posted on twitter.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
tarheelprogrammer wrote:WPBWeather wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:TSR lowers forecast numbers for the Atlantic Hurricane Season
http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ul2016.pdf
Not sure what they are really saying. They do say most active season since 2012. They missed Joaquin last year completely FWIW.
Just posting what Philip Klotzbach posted on twitter.
They slightly lowered their forecast but they still remain more aggressive than CSU's forecast.
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Blown Away
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR lowers forecast
CSU's analog years (1959,1960,1966,1977,1992,2003).
High impact analog years...
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tolakram
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
WPBWeather wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:TSR lowers forecast numbers for the Atlantic Hurricane Season
http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ul2016.pdf
Not sure what they are really saying. They do say most active season since 2012. They missed Joaquin last year completely FWIW.
They aren't saying anything are they? They have indicators for different regions, they run the algorithms, add up the numbers, post the forecast and then see how well they do. Do some folks think these forecasters are putting personal bias into the numbers? I don't see that from either TSR or CSU.
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WPBWeather
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
tolakram wrote:WPBWeather wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:TSR lowers forecast numbers for the Atlantic Hurricane Season
http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... ul2016.pdf
Not sure what they are really saying. They do say most active season since 2012. They missed Joaquin last year completely FWIW.
They aren't saying anything are they? They have indicators for different regions, they run the algorithms, add up the numbers, post the forecast and then see how well they do. Do some folks think these forecasters are putting personal bias into the numbers? I don't see that from either TSR or CSU.
I wouldn't think for a minute that anyone puts their biases into their published products... well maybe sometimes I would. But no one can really know what other people have on their minds, can they.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
The CSU team releases their August forecast update on Thursday, and Dr Phil should begin with his biweekly forecast next week. I wonder what he has to say about the signs of a busy August if the GFS and CFSv2 are correct.
BTW, no mention at all from him regarding 97L on his tweeter account. Everything has been about the EPAC.
Here is the new link to their tropical page if a mod wants to replace the ones on the first page.
http://tropical.colostate.edu/
BTW, no mention at all from him regarding 97L on his tweeter account. Everything has been about the EPAC.
Here is the new link to their tropical page if a mod wants to replace the ones on the first page.
http://tropical.colostate.edu/
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weathaguyry
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
Stupid question, but when does NOAA's august forecast come out?
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cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
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tolakram
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
weathaguyry wrote:Stupid question, but when does NOAA's august forecast come out?
That's not a stupid question. Comes out tomorrow, I think.
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weathaguyry
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
Ok, thanks! Looking forward to seeing it! 
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cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2016 N Atlantic Season:CSU rest of season=11/5/2 Near normal
Luis,
Are the forecasting an additional 11 named storms for a total of 16 or are they forecasting 11 overal for the entire season??
Are the forecasting an additional 11 named storms for a total of 16 or are they forecasting 11 overal for the entire season??
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