Area of disturbed weather in NW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[gatorcane]

Around 120 hours it has a 1003mb closed low pushing into north of Tampa, with an extremely fast ejection out to sea - southeast of Cape Hatteras at 144 hours heading ENE.

[RL3AO]

Thats a lot of low level shear south of Tampa. 20 to 30kt at the surface and 50 to 60kt at 850. Lots of tornadoes?

[AdamFirst]

[gatorcane]

The 12Z UKMET has a 1005MB low at 120 hours in the Eastern-Central Gulf moving NE pretty quickkly near the Tampa area and out into the Atlantic at 144 hours at 1003MB

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The difference with this run and prior GFS runs is that the GFS is keeping the small anticyclone (i.e. the clockwise windflow in the image around the storm) right over the low as it pulls north out of the Caribbean into the Eastern Gulf. Do note the GFS has always shown this anticyclone only that the low was not right underneath it. Looks like as the storm approaches the west coast of Florida shear increases and it weakens a little.

Another thing to keep in mind is that SSTs are quite warm along the path of this system quite capable of supporting a hurricane. I was checking buoys in the NW Caribbean and Eastern Gulf. SSTs are in the 82-84F range in the Eastern Gulf and around 84F-85F in the NW Caribbean. If the upper-level winds cooperate and there is not a lot of land interaction with the Yucatan, no reason we couldn't see a hurricane though that is not what I am expecting at this time.

Nice input and yes I agree with everything you said. Shear will not be terrible until getting close with land or at least it looks like that.

Shear at the 200mb level doesn't mean that much for a weaker storm? I thought low and mid-level shear were more important at that intensity.

[gatorcane]

I know we are looking a lot at the models but take a look at the latest SAT loop:

[tarheelprogrammer]

I know we are looking a lot at the models but take a look at the latest SAT loop:

Will it continue to fire off down there or is it going to fizzel? The Models showed that area fizzling out or at least the GFS did.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The difference with this run and prior GFS runs is that the GFS is keeping the small anticyclone (i.e. the clockwise windflow in the image around the storm) right over the low as it pulls north out of the Caribbean into the Eastern Gulf. Do note the GFS has always shown this anticyclone only that the low was not right underneath it. Looks like as the storm approaches the west coast of Florida shear increases and it weakens a little.

Another thing to keep in mind is that SSTs are quite warm along the path of this system quite capable of supporting a hurricane. I was checking buoys in the NW Caribbean and Eastern Gulf. SSTs are in the 82-84F range in the Eastern Gulf and around 84F-85F in the NW Caribbean. If the upper-level winds cooperate and there is not a lot of land interaction with the Yucatan, no reason we couldn't see a hurricane though that is not what I am expecting at this time.

Nice input and yes I agree with everything you said. Shear will not be terrible until getting close with land or at least it looks like that.

Shear at the 200mb level doesn't mean that much for a weaker storm? I thought low and mid-level shear were more important at that intensity.

Something about an anti-cyclone. I am not a MET though lol.

[gatorcane]

I know we are looking a lot at the models but take a look at the latest SAT loop:

http://i.imgur.com/pCoLFMU.gif

Will it continue to fire off down there or is it going to fizzel? The Models showed that area fizzling out or at least the GFS did.

I think it will fizzle as it looks shear induced but the point is there is a lot of energy and moisture building up (lots of rising area across the SW Caribbean) that eventually will help develop the broad low in the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

[nativefloridian]

Accuweather talks about that cluster of convection Gatorcane is referring to.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... iAs.mailto



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SFLcane]

Guess we can post the FIM..

[WPBWeather]

Guess we can post the FIM..

I was missing this guy --- the FIM.

[tarheelprogrammer]

LLC? No MET but wind map shows a circulation and satellite looks the same as well. Does this have any connection to possible storm in Gulf of Mexico?

[psyclone]

the marine forecasts provide a clue as to what the forecasters are thinking and the nearshore waters forecast for the Tampa bay leg is sufficient to raise an eyebrow:


Monday Night

South winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet building to 10 to 14 feet after midnight. Bay and inland waters choppy. Widespread thunderstorms in the evening...then numerous thunderstorms after midnight.


Tuesday

Southwest winds around 20 knots then becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 16 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Numerous thunderstorms.

reading between the lines....we don't get seas of that magnitude with 20 knot winds. while there are lots of moving parts to keep an eye on in the coming days... don't overlook basic products like the marine forecasts...they provide insight into what the WFOs are thinking before they can be so overt.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Miami disco from this afternoon

This low, which NHC has given a 40 percent chance of developing
into a tropical system as it moves across the eastern Gulf. The
models are in fair agreement at this point, with the low headed to
the north northeast on Monday. There is still uncertainty as to
how much the low will deepen, and the actual track of the system,
especially since it has not even began to develop as of yet. The
current thoughts are that it will cross the Florida peninsula
somewhere over Central Florida sometime between late Monday
through Tuesday. This system looks to spread abundant showers and
thunderstorms. Models are indicating the system will interact with
a frontal system moving across the southeastern US. This
interaction may allow the system to develop fronts with it. This
is supported with the GFS showing some decent isentropic lift
over the southern half of the Florida peninsula late Monday into
early Tuesday, aiding in the development of showers. This also
raise the concern for flooding over the Florida Peninsula. But
again, too early to narrow down any time frames or locations, as
this may greatly change before the weekend ends. Another
possibilityis that South Florida could have a potential for some
severe weather for Monday through Tuesday.

[Evil Jeremy]

LLC? No MET but wind map shows a circulation and satellite looks the same as well. Does this have any connection to possible storm in Gulf of Mexico?

http://i.imgur.com/jCnkrCU.jpg

Those are upper level winds.

[gatorcane]

looks to me like there is already some rotation in the clouds in the SW Caribbean - probably mid-level but interesting to say the least. If it is mid-level the blob won't sustain and will fizzle.

[tarheelprogrammer]

LLC? No MET but wind map shows a circulation and satellite looks the same as well. Does this have any connection to possible storm in Gulf of Mexico?

http://i.imgur.com/jCnkrCU.jpg

Those are upper level winds.

Okay sorry finally I have found that out after looking at that map thinking it was lower level. Oops

[tarheelprogrammer]

looks to me like there is already some rotation in the clouds in the SW Caribbean - probably mid-level but interesting to say the least. If it is mid-level the blob won't sustain and will fizzle.

When I saw it rotating a little earlier that is what I was thinking as well. There is a spin to it but IDK what level it is at. It could be the way the convection is dying off it makes it look that way? IDK I am a programmer not a MET.

[robbielyn]

was looking at nws tampa and they are not being wordy about possible tropical development just making light mention of it saying the models are flipping here and there with each run. so no alarms yet but what was real funny is that the forecaster called bonnie debbie instead. I looked at the date and it said 6/2/2016. im like wait did I sleep through colin already lol?