Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

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stormhunter7
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#101 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:41 pm

btw, if you look at radar loop, you can see a mid level spin on KEVX around 530-600 pm due south of port st joe.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=EVX-N0Q-1-96 - look above the word AUG in that link at the bottom.
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#102 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:51 pm

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure is located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible while it meanders
near the coasts of the eastern Florida panhandle and the northern
Florida peninsula during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#103 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:56 pm

Percentages now up to 20 percent in 48 hours and 30 percent in 120 hours.
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#104 Postby ouragans » Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:09 pm

We should have an invest soon
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#105 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:12 pm

Also, I would be inclined to think that NHC, now that the percentages have increased just a bit this evening, may possibly designate Invest 98 sometime within the next 12-24 hours.
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#106 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:13 pm

I think that buoy dropped due to that massive thunderstorm coming through though. My kid was walking his dog in Pensacola a bit before that and showed me the dark looking thunderstorm above. You could the see those thickening clouds on that loop for sure. It probably will lower over time either way.

What it looks like is the surface trof/depressed area is acting as a focusing mechanism for storms during the day and at night. Every night lines are coming down from south GA and AL and pushing into the Gulf as they are doing now (also through South Mississippi particularly tonight.) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/jsl-animated.gif

I caught a storm in Hancock County already today that was a complete deluge.

Also note in the loop above the blowup off Panama City Beach all the way up toward Ft. Walton. In addition, you can see a deep pulse with Earl's eastern eyewall. You know that's insane.
--------------------------
I think that unless something spins up more quickly and be/get offshore which I would give a < 50% chance of happening, the instability is just going to hang around and rain and rain and rain for the next couple of days. It doesn't really have to do anything, and it's not going to go anywhere for a while. There is strong ridging off the SE Coast and after that next push comes up toward the East coast, it should build back in again. If you live in Florida and basically anywhere east of here (we will still be unstable regardless) in the Southeast, there will be tons of rain. I think the QPF is understated in some respects as there will likely be much higher rainfall totals than 13.4" in the 7 day run. You'd have to think the rain bulls-eye is from the northern Tampa counties up and over to SW Alabama. Long term, I think the Gulf will probably spin up a low in the depression/lower-end/rainy tropical storm range. It could even form over S GA or NE FL and drift or pulse. I don't have a good feel on the timing, though best guess would be if something did get classified, sometime between late Sunday and maybe Wed morning? It could still be hanging around as just an area of low pressure too. Since the Gulf is hot, the surface air above it is unstable and the energy is strong, those would be favorables. It's early August which isn't usually all that active otherwise. This is generally a transitional period for the summer.

Obviously if something forms farther out to sea or gets offshore enough, there could be a bigger problem than just flooding rains.
Last edited by Steve on Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#107 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:20 pm

FWIW, some of the mesoscale models (namely the HRRR and one of the WRF variants) spin this into a tropical cyclone before moving ashore over the Big Bend in the next two days. This isn't unbelievable considering the vigorous 850mb circulation the Euro and GFS develop (although neither of them develops an actual tropical cyclone). It's good to be wary of using mesoscale models for any sort of tropical development, but their increased resolution can pickup on small circulations that global models can miss.
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#108 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:25 pm

Early next week is when we really need to be concerned. The environment looks favorable given that the EC develops a healthy TS over ventral Georgia
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#109 Postby USTropics » Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:26 pm

Two new genesis areas (tagged Invest 73L and 74L) were added by the NHC:

Code: Select all

GENESIS011, AL, L, , , , , 73, 2016, DB, O, 2016080500, 9999999999, , 011, , , , GENESIS, , AL732016
GENESIS012, AL, L, , , , , 74, 2016, DB, O, 2016080600, 9999999999, , 012, , , , GENESIS, , AL742016
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#110 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:28 pm

Siker wrote:FWIW, some of the mesoscale models (namely the HRRR and one of the WRF variants) spin this into a tropical cyclone before moving ashore over the Big Bend in the next two days. This isn't unbelievable considering the vigorous 850mb circulation the Euro and GFS develop (although neither of them develops an actual tropical cyclone). It's good to be wary of using mesoscale models for any sort of tropical development, but their increased resolution can pickup on small circulations that global models can miss.


That could happen, and certainly there could be multiple rotations over the next few days. No doubt the mesoscale models are at least onto rotation. But if it moves into the Big Bend, it's still probably just going to hang around. I don't see a way out for at least a few days. Definitely gotta watch out down there no matter what happens for flooding, displaced wildlife, etc.
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#111 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:46 pm

Alyono wrote:Early next week is when we really need to be concerned. The environment looks favorable given that the EC develops a healthy TS over ventral Georgia


Agree with this; this is the timeframe that the Euro has been showing development on and off. A cluster of GFS and Euro ensemble members show this lobe moving offshore, developing and tracking west a la Edouard '08.

Image
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#112 Postby JtSmarts » Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:09 pm

Do you all foresee a lot of this rain making its way towards SC? I still have road closings in my area from the big flood last October.
Last edited by JtSmarts on Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#113 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:10 pm

Certainly seems an upper high is building over the northeastern Gulf coast area, look at the nice anti cyclonic (clockwise) outflow with cloud tops fanning out. So conditions look to be becoming quite conducive for development

Image
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#114 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:47 pm

We sure have had a lot of rain the last couple days here in the Panhandle of Florida. Tree roots are saturated, wouldn't take much wind after another few days of rain to knock over a few trees. Hearing thunder as I type this. More on the way tomorrow apparently. Everybody take care and get ready now if you aren't prepared already.
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#115 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:37 pm

Orlando's Fox 35 TV Met just said it again: "low pressure area shown by the model developing over the big bend area is not tropical in nature, in fact is an upper level low, besides Earl the tropics remain quiet"
Does he even know that the NHC has this area highlighted for possible tropical development? lol.
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#116 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:46 pm

NDG even NWS Miami is calling it an upper trough / low with associated surface low(s) which develop:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#117 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 05, 2016 10:06 pm

gatorcane wrote:NDG even NWS Miami is calling it an upper trough / low with associated surface low(s) which develop:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


At least Melbourne has it right.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#118 Postby Big_Stevo29 » Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:21 pm

USTropics wrote:Also, #lesscrinks

Image
Now that's more like it; easier to view. 8-)
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#119 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:23 pm

for the first time, the Canadian is developing this

UKMET has dropped it in favor of development east of Florida. Of course, Canadian develops BOTH
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Re: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

#120 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:48 pm

Big_Stevo29 wrote:
USTropics wrote:Also, #lesscrinks

Image
Now that's more like it; easier to view. 8-)

stormy day their i see
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