2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like per every run, the Bermuda ridge keeps retreating back towards the east. I wonder if it will whip back west the closer we get to it actually forming in the carribean.

[OuterBanker]

Interesting model runs on previous page. I assume the model runs have stopped on the Matthew type storm. I'm in the turks and Caicos on vacation. Never been here before, but I can assure you that I will return. Perfect weather, azure warm water, great food. I don't want to go home. And I live on the outer Banks. The only problem is that it's quite pricey. Anyway, the model runs were interesting, but pure fiction.

[Kazmit]

Interesting model runs on previous page. I assume the model runs have stopped on the Matthew type storm. I'm in the turks and Caicos on vacation. Never been here before, but I can assure you that I will return. Perfect weather, azure warm water, great food. I don't want to go home. And I live on the outer Banks. The only problem is that it's quite pricey. Anyway, the model runs were interesting, but pure fiction.

Long range models are bullish a lot of the time. I went to Turks and Caicos a few years ago and we stayed in Providenciales. It's a beautiful place, and like you I wish to return some day.

[AutoPenalti]

This day has been so boring that I've been staring at model renders and this site for about 3 hours and napping in between waiting for something to happen.

[TheStormExpert]

Hard to believe with all those low pressure areas developing and hanging out around the Greater Antilles nothing gets going during the next 15 days, then again wind shear and land interaction are the inhibitors.

[northjaxpro]

W'ell, I have not followed too closely recently, but looking here in this thread there seemed to be some buzz on here somewhat on the models possibly developing something coming out of the Carribean over the next 10-14 days. Apparently, appears now that the models have backed off from those earlier runs right?

[Nimbus]

Climatology favors Panama for early season development.
If it were later in the season the tail end of the cold front east of Florida would be worth watching for surface development.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS @ 384hrs, what is going on!?

[TheAustinMan]

18z GFS @ 384hrs, what is going on!?

384 hour GFS hijinks. Looks like that is the result of a strong trough dropping through the region and spawning a few lows along a frontal boundary. If that happens to verify I wouldn't be very optimistic as that 1003mb system there is being propelled northeast at around 45 mph.

[AutoPenalti]

18z GFS @ 384hrs, what is going on!?

A lot of fantasy is what's going on here.

[AJC3]

Well before the fantasyland period, the 00Z global model guidance has trended wetter for Florida, showing a surface to 850MB inverted trough axis of varying strength (ECM/GFS = weak; Canuck = LOLtastically ridiculous) moving NW across the Bahamas and into Florida at varying speeds (ECM/Canuck = faster; GFS = slower) during the latter half of the upcoming week (WED-FRI, possibly straggling into SAT on the GFS). Didn't get a chance to look at the 00Z UKM yet.

TC development looks very unlikely, however, I know a lot of Floridians wouldn't mind seeing a decent shot of rain out of this. Fingers crossed...

[ronjon]

Speaking of wetter, in hernando beach on the fl west coast, we got 8 inches of rain saturday from training of storms over the GOM that lasted 6-7 hours. I think all the lawns and plants magically rejoiced as it had been extremely dry since last sept. On the inverted trough, I doubt any development but looks to pump in copious moisture that will prime the pump this weekend for much needed heavy rain across the peninsula.

[Hammy]

Atlantic wave train seems active for May as per GFS.

[gatorcane]

GFS shows a decent area of persistent convection associated with a surface trough / weak broad low pressure over the Western Caribbean in the long-range. Maybe something could get going there as we have seen in late May in recent seasons past.

[MississippiWx]

GFS is showing some mischief in the NW Caribbean in a more believable timeframe (~180 hours out). It seems that a trough to the north over the USA digs far enough south to pick up a monsoonal gyre over Central America and brings it out over the open waters of the NW Caribbean. The GFS even shows it consolidating into an area of low pressure (1005mb or so) before being lifted north into the Atlantic and then getting sheared out by yet another trough. This is interesting because it has been consistent with this the last several runs and it's not in GFS la-la-land. Just something to keep an eye on.

[cycloneye]

Maybe? 12z GFS has this this less than 10 days when it begins.

[gatorcane]

upper-level winds look quite favorable for development actually with a huge upper anti-cyclone over top the low, I think some mid-level dry air over the NW Caribbean/Gulf might be the inhibitor for the GFS deepening this even more on this run:

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS parallel showing something more significant compared to its prior 00Z run, but eventually gets sheared out in the SE Gulf:

[TheStormExpert]

Where are you looking at to see Mid-Level Dry Air in this part of the Atlantic?

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: Where are you looking at to see Mid-Level Dry Air in this part of the Atlantic?

I use this image from Tropical Tidbits: