Weak remnant low southwest of Nate

[NDG]

Tides along Brevard County are way up, flooding some low laying coastal areas already.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the NHC might be eating their words.... circ appears to have developed .... plenty favorable for a sheared system to strengthen some. this of course will complicate soon to be nate..

[northjaxpro]

Well, I have been doing this too long to think I was losing my mind Aric Lol..

I do not know what is going on down at NHC today with this system. This system has been been gradually organizing since last night for Pete's sake.

[SFLcane]

Cant agree more Aric odds aren't great for development but clearly not at 0. CMC has this developing tonight we shall see.

[Aric Dunn]

Cant agree more Aric odds aren't great for development but clearly not at 0. CMC has this developing tonight we shall see.

at this point with the circ already there... odds are very high lol.. above 50%

[Aric Dunn]

Well, I have been doing this too long to think I was losing my mind Aric Lol..

I do not know what is going on down at NHC today with this system. This system has been been gradually organizing since last night for Pete's sake.

yeah, I mean the low levels were not organizing much yesterday as they were screaming east to west.. was not till late last night and this morning that the curvature in the low levels started... and now it closed off near cuba..

[chaser1]

Tides along Brevard County are way up, flooding some low laying coastal areas already.

That's insane?! Simply from the Kings' Tides in conjunction with the tighter gradient up there???

[tgenius]

Well, I have been doing this too long to think I was losing my mind Aric Lol..

I do not know what is going on down at NHC today with this system. This system has been been gradually organizing since last night for Pete's sake.

yeah, I mean the low levels were not organizing much yesterday as they were screaming east to west.. was not till late last night and this morning that the curvature in the low levels started... and now it closed off near cuba..

Aric what would you think the motion would be on that? Go through the straights or clip SFL peninsula?

[Aric Dunn]

Well, I have been doing this too long to think I was losing my mind Aric Lol..

I do not know what is going on down at NHC today with this system. This system has been been gradually organizing since last night for Pete's sake.

yeah, I mean the low levels were not organizing much yesterday as they were screaming east to west.. was not till late last night and this morning that the curvature in the low levels started... and now it closed off near cuba..

Aric what would you think the motion would be on that? Go through the straights or clip SFL peninsula?

yeah most likely. the affect will be the same... rain rain rain..

[gatorcane]

looks like it is developing. NHC might have no choice but to significantly increase changes at 8pm EST.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I have been doing this too long to think I was losing my mind Aric Lol..

I do not know what is going on down at NHC today with this system. This system has been been gradually organizing since last night for Pete's sake.

yeah, I mean the low levels were not organizing much yesterday as they were screaming east to west.. was not till late last night and this morning that the curvature in the low levels started... and now it closed off near cuba..

Right. I said last night I meant overnight (pre-dawn hours) that the system began organizing. I agree with you Aric. But, it does not excuse NHC's poor handling of this system today. I know they are busy with TD 16, but still, you got to get the details right about this disturbance in the Florida Straits currently. They should tag it an invest asap imo.

[LarryWx]

Looks like the NHC might be eating their words.... circ appears to have developed .... plenty favorable for a sheared system to strengthen some. this of course will complicate soon to be nate..

IF this develops a surface circulation, that would match the GFS, which has this, and not the Euro, which doesn't. Therefore, this would seem to mean that the GFS track for TD #16 has a better chance of being closer to reality than the Euro track. Also, with this feature competing for energy with TD 16, I'd think that would mean TD 16 probably doesn't get as strong as it otherwise would have had it been more isolated. Do others agree with these two ideas?

[SFLcane]

Not exactly sure what the NHC is looking at bet they increase those odds at 8pm

[NDG]

Looks like the NHC might be eating their words.... circ appears to have developed .... plenty favorable for a sheared system to strengthen some. this of course will complicate soon to be nate..

IF this develops a surface circulation, that would match the GFS, which has this, and not the Euro, which doesn't. Therefore, this would seem to mean that the GFS track for TD #16 has a better chance of being closer to reality than the Euro track. Also, with this feature competing for energy with TD 16, I'd think that would mean TD 16 probably doesn't get as strong as it otherwise would have had it been more isolated. Do others agree with these two ideas?

Surface reports from Cuba supports my idea that the circulation is still in the mid levels, is trying but not quite yet to the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the NHC might be eating their words.... circ appears to have developed .... plenty favorable for a sheared system to strengthen some. this of course will complicate soon to be nate..

[img]https://image.ibb.co/eDSoiw/GOES18302017277_JWs_ANX.jpg[/ig]

IF this develops a surface circulation, that would match the GFS, which has this, and not the Euro, which doesn't. Therefore, this would seem to mean that the GFS track for TD #16 has a better chance of being closer to reality than the Euro track. Also, with this feature competing for energy with TD 16, I'd think that would mean TD 16 probably doesn't get as strong as it otherwise would have had it been more isolated. Do others agree with these two ideas?

Surface reports from Cuba supports my idea that the circulation is still in the mid levels, is trying but not quite yet to the surface.

Surface obs from cuba are almost always suspect with various mountains and terrian... regardless that they are not very well maintianed. Also no reporting station is close enough to the circ as it is not very expansive on the sw side..

[Evil Jeremy]

I've been eyeballing this for the past few days, since the GFS started spinning this up. Also surprised with the NHC's treatment of the area. Yesterday's squally weather in Broward was unpleasant, and it looks like the rest of the week will be intense. I haven't taken a close look at the system since this morning, but I did notice the NHC's TWO glitch at 2pm. That threw me for a loop!

[NDG]

IF this develops a surface circulation, that would match the GFS, which has this, and not the Euro, which doesn't. Therefore, this would seem to mean that the GFS track for TD #16 has a better chance of being closer to reality than the Euro track. Also, with this feature competing for energy with TD 16, I'd think that would mean TD 16 probably doesn't get as strong as it otherwise would have had it been more isolated. Do others agree with these two ideas?

Surface reports from Cuba supports my idea that the circulation is still in the mid levels, is trying but not quite yet to the surface.

Surface obs from cuba are almost always suspect with various mountains and terrian... regardless that they are not very well maintianed. Also no reporting station is close enough to the circ as it is not very expansive on the sw side..

I disagree, central section of the Island is not that mountainous.

[Aric Dunn]

Surface reports from Cuba supports my idea that the circulation is still in the mid levels, is trying but not quite yet to the surface.

Surface obs from cuba are almost always suspect with various mountains and terrian... regardless that they are not very well maintianed. Also no reporting station is close enough to the circ as it is not very expansive on the sw side..

I disagree, central section of the Island is not that mountainous.

again... nothing is close enough ( besides the various other issues) to use obs from cuba...

[NDG]

Surface obs from cuba are almost always suspect with various mountains and terrian... regardless that they are not very well maintianed. Also no reporting station is close enough to the circ as it is not very expansive on the sw side..

I disagree, central section of the Island is not that mountainous.

again... nothing is close enough ( besides the various other issues) to use obs from cuba...

http://www.sailwx.info/tmp/59d5399c_2119_15e.png

On hr vis satellite loop is very clear that there are no west to east moving low level clouds south of the vorticity.
But the surface trough has become sharper in the past few hours. With the high shear all I see is a surface broad closed circulation forming later on, IMO.

[Patrick99]

Last couple of days, our weather has been unsettled to say the least. Squally.....with an increasing breeze and increasing squall frequency now too.