Disturbed Weather in North-NorthWestern GOM (Is Invest 90L)

[wxman57]

Well, the 12Z GFS indicates some rain for Louisiana & Florida late next week. No storm in the Gulf.

[NDG]

Well, the 12Z GFS indicates some rain for Louisiana & Florida late next week. No storm in the Gulf.

I am sure the crazy 18z run will bring back it as hurricane as it has during the past couple of days

[LarryWx]

Per the 12Z GEFS, the very weak operational looks more like a fluke (as in the operational was a weak member so to speak) because it is just about as active as the prior 2 GEFS. So, game far from over as of now.

[wxman57]

Well, the 12Z GFS indicates some rain for Louisiana & Florida late next week. No storm in the Gulf.

I am sure the crazy 18z run will bring back it as hurricane as it has during the past couple of days

I'd bet on it! I see that the 12Z Euro moves a very weak low into the TX coast next Friday. Some rain, perhaps, if we're lucky.

[stormlover2013]

12z isn't finished up yet

[floridasun78]

is wave the one by 35-40 w and below 10 n?

[Aric Dunn]

Gfs is just having a hard time dealing with the system in east pac and wants to develop in carrib. Just have to wait until the wave gets closer to the islands and convection starts to build.

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, the 12Z Euro is not only a bit stronger than its 0Z run in the Gulf (at hour 192), but it is now stronger than the 12Z GFS (which we know had almost nothing).

[Aric Dunn]

And the euro is on board now..

[cycloneye]

Dang. 12z Euro has it in a fist in GOM.

[Aric Dunn]

Interestingly, the 12Z Euro is not only a bit stronger than its 0Z run in the Gulf (at hour 192), but it is now stronger than the 12Z GFS (which we know had almost nothing).

And also to the right very similar to the gfs.. just the gfs is having vorticity issues

[Hammy]

Gfs is just having a hard time dealing with the system in east pac and wants to develop in carrib. Just have to wait until the wave gets closer to the islands and convection starts to build.

Convective feedback?

[NDG]

Gfs is just having a hard time dealing with the system in east pac and wants to develop in carrib. Just have to wait until the wave gets closer to the islands and convection starts to build.

Convective feedback?

Probably just its progressive poleward bias as always.

[cycloneye]

[mcheer23]

EURO in NOLA

[NDG]

I don't know which 12z Euro run wxman57 was looking at, this is 200 miles east of SE TX

[northjaxpro]

12Z EURO has the system a bit more west of the 06Z GFS, which showed a MS /AL landfall on 8/24.

But the general idea from both runs shows potential tropical cyclone moving north/northwest into the GOM within the next 10 days.

[Aric Dunn]

Gfs has a great upper environment.. but it has the vorticities (plural) interacting the entire time never consolidates and thus never deepens. Its not that its not showing development its just going crazy with interactions. Otherwise given the synoptics it would likely bomb out..

[cycloneye]

Aric,and also EPAC issues.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,and also EPAC issues.

Yeah thats why i was just saying interactions.. lol all sorts of issues