Tropical Wave near Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 94L)

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jonj2040
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#101 Postby jonj2040 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:02 pm

Hope my verbage is correct, inform me if I am wrong, but you can follow the reflection of the energy from the coast of Africa all the way until it crosses Central America. Last night the 0z GFS showed this guy over the Bahamas with a 950mb at ~300hr nearly stalled with a high pressure parked over it. That was a but worrisome hopefully this idea of keeping it week remains... at least until the highs roll out and we can see some fish.
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ :D

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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#102 Postby Abdullah » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:07 pm

ronjon wrote:
Abdullah wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
The NAO looks like it will be mostly positive in the next 10+ days so maybe that will influence more ridging pattern?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/d3c536e3a7f9acf36a8f65651f5cb577.gif


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Can you explain what the NAO is or link me to a page that explains it, please, right from the beginning? I have no idea what it is at all or how it affects anything that happens, but it seems pretty important.


North Atlantic Oscillation...basically acts as such regarding trofs and high pressure...

A case of positive NAO in the atmosphere. Lower than normal pressures over Greenland and higher than normal pressures over the Atlantic ocean. Bermuda high strong in the SW Atlantic which would tend to steer cyclones toward the US from those forming in the east Atlantic.

The NAO is in a negative phase when both the sub-polar low and the subtropical high are weaker than average. This means more east coast trofs and would tend to steer storms out into the open atlantic before reaching the US.


Thank you for the concise and easy-to-understand explanation! Helps a lot!
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Re: Tropical Wave inside Africa

#103 Postby Abdullah » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:10 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Abdullah wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
The NAO looks like it will be mostly positive in the next 10+ days so maybe that will influence more ridging pattern?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/d3c536e3a7f9acf36a8f65651f5cb577.gif


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Can you explain what the NAO is or link me to a page that explains it, please, right from the beginning? I have no idea what it is at all or how it affects anything that happens, but it seems pretty important.


No problem at all. In a very general sense a positive NAO tends to have more high pressure ridging near the US east coast which could steer hurricanes closer to the US whereas a negative NAO tends to have a weaker high and more troughing near the US east coast which could act to deflect hurricanes away from the US. This is just a general sense of what it does and there are more intricate issues with it. You can check this link below for some good info on NAO though:

https://www.britannica.com/science/Nort ... scillation


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Thank you as well! That was a good read.
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#104 Postby Abdullah » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:16 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:NHC likes it regardless of the models, environment looks favorable, models will probably come back in the next 24 hours, they have a habit of developing/dropping at long range..islands have to be on the lookout, tough to get one all the way across to the USA but its that time of the year..im taking shutters down today and leaving them stacked up by each window, long way to go in southern florida, October is prime time and we just had a major scare


Time to get accordian shutters jlauderdal. Roland Steadham would be so dissappointed that you still dont have them yet.


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panels until i go to my grave or just can't install them anymore :D

roland steadham was back in sofla a few years ago on channel 10 then disappeared again. THe good old days 2004 during hyperactivity..steadham, kamal, don noe...no kamal comments please, thanks


Why though? Just wondering... We've got panels on our bottom floor but accordion shutters on the top floor of our house. It's far easier now.
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#105 Postby underthwx » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:18 pm

This wave will unfortunately be watched by our friends in the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere, yall must be worn out from Dorian. I hope all of you in Dorian's impacted areas, are okay...is there any sense of where this wave will track?
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#106 Postby Abdullah » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:47 pm

Can anyone tell me the criteria for a disturbed area to be declared an invest and who is tasked with the job? I think it should be an invest... But I know nothing of that.
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#107 Postby Orlandocane » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:29 pm

We are beyond exhausted with watching Dorian for over a week here in north Orlando ! The one track had it literally coming straight over our house, boarded up everything and now we’re in the clear obviously but waiting to take the boards down now
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#108 Postby USTropics » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:35 pm

Abdullah wrote:Can anyone tell me the criteria for a disturbed area to be declared an invest and who is tasked with the job? I think it should be an invest... But I know nothing of that.


There is no formal protocol to declare an invest, it's technically an internal method to track systems between the NHC and other branches under NOAA. Starting a few years ago, they've now used GENESIS tags before declaring a system an invest (as they have done for this wave).
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#109 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:09 pm

Nothing on the GFS or the ECMWF.. :na:

NHC will probably decrease development chances further this evening.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#110 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:13 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Even though they lowered the percentages, the wording on the outlook doesn't really seem to be changing so far. Maybe it's just a temporary lowering?
Avila write it?


Nope. Blake and Hagen (whoever that is).
Hagens first write up for nhc
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Re: RE: Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#111 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:13 pm

Orlandocane wrote:We are beyond exhausted with watching Dorian for over a week here in north Orlando ! The one track had it literally coming straight over our house, boarded up everything and now we’re in the clear obviously but waiting to take the boards down now
Rest up, tropics are cookin
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#112 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:53 pm

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#113 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:10 pm

:uarrow: Blowing up as it exits Africa. We shall see what it does in a few days but not much model support as of yet.
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#114 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:20 pm

The 8 PM TWO is unusually late. The NHC has a lot to deal with!
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#115 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:27 pm

abajan wrote:The 8 PM TWO is unusually late. The NHC has a lot to deal with!


It was out since 7:30. They have not updated the graphic. Who is Latto?

A tropical wave along the coast of Africa will begin to move over
the eastern Atlantic tonight. Environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for some slow development late this week, and this system
has the potential to become a tropical depression early next week
while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#116 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:31 pm

gatorcane wrote:
abajan wrote:The 8 PM TWO is unusually late. The NHC has a lot to deal with!


It was out since 7:30. They have not updated the graphic. Who is Latto?

A tropical wave along the coast of Africa will begin to move over
the eastern Atlantic tonight. Environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for some slow development late this week, and this system
has the potential to become a tropical depression early next week
while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

I haven't a clue who Latto is!
But thanks for sharing.
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#117 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:34 pm

Not sure why models are not as enthusiastic on development with this wave. Conditions do appear favorable.
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#118 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:37 pm

gatorcane wrote:Not sure why models are not as enthusiastic on development with this wave. Conditions do appear favorable.

I really want it to develop quickly. The quicker it does, the earlier it turns WNW. Well, that's what normally happens anyway.
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#119 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:07 pm

gatorcane wrote:Not sure why models are not as enthusiastic on development with this wave. Conditions do appear favorable.


Not sure either, as it seems on again, off again. I wonder if it has to do with how the atlantic ridge resolves itself after the departure of Gabrielle. Maybe, depending on timing, it might impart easterly shear on the wave
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#120 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:08 pm

A tropical wave along the coast of Africa will begin to move over
the eastern Atlantic tonight. Environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for some slow development late this week, and this system
has the potential to become a tropical depression early next week
while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Image
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