Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[Highteeld]

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/WxxPCns.png

1. To clarify, those systems coming into the SE US and into the Gulf are all from the wave now N of the LAs, being watched in its own thread.
2. The most threatening of the members at 240 to FL and the US Gulf coast are those near Hispaniola and south. Most of those to the north of the Greater Antilles recurve and miss the SE US because the ridge breaks down except for maybe one member. Some threaten the NC to NE Us corridor.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/WxxPCns.png

That’s the wrong noodle graph. That is for the wave that’s by the Lesser Antilles.

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/WxxPCns.png

That’s the wrong noodle graph. That is for the wave that’s by the Lesser Antilles.

No, it isn't the wrong graph as it actually is for all systems through 240. The ones from north of the Antilles down into the Caribbean are for the wave over W Africa and these are the ones with a L marked in that region. Only the ones near/in the SE US are from the one near the LAs and these show we shouldn't go to sleep on that LA system.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/WxxPCns.png

That’s the wrong noodle graph. That is for the wave that’s by the Lesser Antilles.

No, it isn't the wrong graph as it actually is for all systems through 240. The ones from north of the Antilles down into the Caribbean are for the wave over W Africa and these are the ones with a L marked in that region. Only the ones near/in the SE US are from the one near the LAs and these show we shouldn't go to sleep on that LA system.

Oh okay, that’s confused me for a second.

[SFLcane]

There is a lot of volatility in the D10 pattern. I will say though the EPS mean is quite dangerous.

[LarryWx]

There is a lot of volatility in the D10 pattern. I will say though the EPS mean is quite dangerous.

https://i.imgur.com/Ix8Vtbe.jpg

I had thought the same and figured a lot of landfalling members by day 15, but it turns out that it isn’t as dangerous as this day 10 map suggested to me as that strong E US ridging completely breaks down within only 3 days. This shows how fluid longwave troughs/ridges can be, especially with the approach of a TC. So, almost all of the members that aren’t far enough south (i.e., Hispaniola south) to make it into the Gulf recurve away from the SE US though a couple do graze far E NC. Now, those few members in the Gulf would potentially be dangerous.

Now had there been members further west within a couple of hundred miles of the SE coast at day 10 with that same H5 setup as opposed to the actual members then being 750-1000 miles off the coast, if would have been a much more dangerous situation for the SE US coast.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS goes over Hispaniola as a hurricane this run, would be a big problem for them but the thing that doesn’t make sense is it maintaining being a hurricane going through those mountains, it would be lucky to have any sort of LLC

[Hurricaneman]

Near The Carolinas at hr 312 but most likely that’s going to change but one thing I noticed this run is the trough lifts faster bringing just enough ridging back to get this to the Outer banks and after that the Mid Atlantic states and the Northeastern US

The main things to take away from this is the ridge is stronger on this run and the trough lifts out quicker

[LarryWx]

1. 0Z GEFS says main areas at risk are Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes.
2. 0Z Legacy: At 240 hours, it is only crawling NW E of the Bahamas due to an E US/WAR strong blocking ridge holding it up at least for then. Impossible to tell if it would have later hit any of the US east coast.
3. 0Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 16.6N 43.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 120 16.6N 43.8W 1010 30
1200UTC 14.09.2019 132 17.8N 46.7W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 144 18.9N 49.6W 1004 36

Next up: the King.

[LarryWx]

1. 0Z GEFS says main areas at risk are Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes.
2. 0Z Legacy: At 240 hours, it is only crawling NW E of the Bahamas due to an E US/WAR strong blocking ridge holding it up at least for then. Impossible to tell if it would have later hit any of the US east coast.
3. 0Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 16.6N 43.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 120 16.6N 43.8W 1010 30
1200UTC 14.09.2019 132 17.8N 46.7W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 144 18.9N 49.6W 1004 36

Next up: the King.

The King says going to recurve OTS.

[Kazmit]

The GFS has been very consistent with developing this into a hurricane and the 0z Euro jumped on board as well.

[N2FSU]

6z GFS +240 hr

[cycloneye]

No please to PR.This is a almost Maria redux on the track some 20 miles west of the 20th of September track.

[N2FSU]

0z Euro +240 hr

[Kazmit]

No please to PR.This is a almost Maria redux on the track some 20 miles west of the 20th of September track.

https://i.imgur.com/PVW1jAW.gif

Scary run. It then proceeds to make landfall in Bermuda as a major hurricane.

[SFLcane]

December like trof recurving this cyclone into Bermuda after impacting the islands.

[NDG]

December like trof recurving this cyclone into Bermuda after impacting the islands.

https://i.imgur.com/izBrY5Q.png

Its ensembles paint a different picture like the Euro ensembles.

[toad strangler]

Ensembles are a much more useful tool in the mid to long range over single operational runs.

[Frank2]

It seems any development later this week will be from this system yet to emerge from Africa - the 06z GFS now has it westward towards Florida and the US EC. Since the system appears earlier on every run it's becoming more of a concern. Glad I didn't unpack my Dorian evacuation trip luggage...

Frank