Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[TheStormExpert]

This can easily be ignored.

https://i.postimg.cc/mrL9ysq3/5-FE9-BE00-0792-4-EEA-A381-C301-D9-B077-C4.png

This far out I wouldn't write off a track through the Caribbean and into Central America or Mexico. I think the CFS is hinting at that.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[USTropics]

The 12zGFS shows this heading to the southern Lesser Antilles, way SW of the 6z run

Energy splits into two after splashdown with one half doing a Texas Two Step with Rene. Bizarre.

tropicaltidbits conked out at hr 228, but it looks like the remnants of Rene and Paulette are both still in the central Atlantic when future Sandy/Teddy enters the picture.

NCEP servers are having issues.

Sep 8: The NOAA data center is having problems and some NCEP models (including GFS) are currently delayed

[TheStormExpert]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Gradual development is expected once the system moves
over water, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week or over the weekend while the system moves generally westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Now that the 48hr. chances are there it should be quickly deemed an Invest on Thursday when it emerges, if not sooner?

[TheStormExpert]

Energy splits into two after splashdown with one half doing a Texas Two Step with Rene. Bizarre.

tropicaltidbits conked out at hr 228, but it looks like the remnants of Rene and Paulette are both still in the central Atlantic when future Sandy/Teddy enters the picture.

NCEP servers are having issues.

Sep 8: The NOAA data center is having problems and some NCEP models (including GFS) are currently delayed

So does this mean this afternoons 12z Euro will run on Tropical Tidbits?

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS: 73% Probability with 16 members showing genesis (out of 22)

[USTropics]

tropicaltidbits conked out at hr 228, but it looks like the remnants of Rene and Paulette are both still in the central Atlantic when future Sandy/Teddy enters the picture.

NCEP servers are having issues.

Sep 8: The NOAA data center is having problems and some NCEP models (including GFS) are currently delayed

So does this mean this afternoons 12z Euro will run on Tropical Tidbits?

Shouldn't be a problem for ECMWF or UKMET models as they are hosted at their own facilities. CMC/GFDL/HWRF could be affected.

[us89]

Energy splits into two after splashdown with one half doing a Texas Two Step with Rene. Bizarre.

tropicaltidbits conked out at hr 228, but it looks like the remnants of Rene and Paulette are both still in the central Atlantic when future Sandy/Teddy enters the picture.

NCEP servers are having issues.

Sep 8: The NOAA data center is having problems and some NCEP models (including GFS) are currently delayed

So that's why the MOS site has been giving me products from September 3rd for the last few days...

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro MUCH weaker.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro MUCH weaker.

Horrendous consistency. 00z yesterday was a major hurricane, 12z yesterday was a weak tropical storm, 00z run was a major hurricane, 12z run back to a tropical storm.

Frustrating how poorly this model has performed this season in terms of intensity.

[CyclonicFury]

12z Euro MUCH weaker.

Horrendous consistency. 00z yesterday was a major hurricane, 12z yesterday was a weak tropical storm, 00z run was a major hurricane, 12z run back to a tropical storm.

Frustrating how poorly this model has performed this season in terms of intensity.

Indeed. The ECMWF had many runs where it showed Laura opening up into a wave near the Bahamas and never redeveloping, but this obviously did not pan out. It also never really developed Marco or Nana at all until they actually developed.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro MUCH weaker.

Horrendous consistency. 00z yesterday was a major hurricane, 12z yesterday was a weak tropical storm, 00z run was a major hurricane, 12z run back to a tropical storm.

Frustrating how poorly this model has performed this season in terms of intensity.

Indeed. The ECMWF had many runs where it showed Laura opening up into a wave near the Bahamas and never redeveloping, but this obviously did not pan out. It also never really developed Marco or Nana at all until they actually developed.

12z GFS run was also garbage IMO. Randomly splits vorticity off from this wave emerging off Africa and makes it into a major hurricane.

[aspen]

Horrendous consistency. 00z yesterday was a major hurricane, 12z yesterday was a weak tropical storm, 00z run was a major hurricane, 12z run back to a tropical storm.

Frustrating how poorly this model has performed this season in terms of intensity.

Indeed. The ECMWF had many runs where it showed Laura opening up into a wave near the Bahamas and never redeveloping, but this obviously did not pan out. It also never really developed Marco or Nana at all until they actually developed.

12z GFS run was also garbage IMO. Randomly splits vorticity off from this wave emerging off Africa and makes it into a major hurricane.

It splits the wave into a Rene copycat and a Charlie ‘04 analogue. Maybe it’s trying to hone in on two separate waves developing?

[HurricaneAndre2008]

You guys know the Euro is a track model right?

[MJGarrison]

It might be more accurate to say that the Euro is a Global Model. Other hurricane models are specifically programmed to better model the lower level processes of the hurricanes, giving a more accurate look at intensity. The Euro is not programmed specifically for hurricane tracks.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[AutoPenalti]

You guys know the Euro is a track model right?

It does handle intensity as well, albeit at a lower resolution.

[SFLcane]

Holy EPS! This just got really interesting..

Barrage of majors near SFL...

[cycloneye]

Holy EPS! This just got really interesting..

What? Give us more.

[AutoPenalti]

Holy EPS! This just got really interesting..

Barrage of majors near SFL...

Need the sauce!

[blp]

Here is what he is talking about: