2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[DorkyMcDorkface]

GFS delayed.

https://i.imgur.com/BgPtIfz.jpg

It's working on the actual NCEP site, and it does appear to develop a system:



(this GIF was made manually btw just to save y'all the time)

[SFLcane]

We'll probably get 1-2 TCs out of the next upward motion impulse but whether it's EPAC or ATL or both, who knows.

[CyclonicFury]

Starting to see some members have genesis within 10 days, but the strongest signals remain past day 10. I wouldn't be surprised if the operational Euro never comes board, that model was HORRENDOUS last year having Eta and Iota as weak lows a week out.

[aspen]

Starting to see some members have genesis within 10 days, but the strongest signals remain past day 10. I wouldn't be surprised if the operational Euro never comes board, that model was HORRENDOUS last year having Eta and Iota as weak lows a week out.
https://i.imgur.com/sKIJowc.png
https://i.imgur.com/newxpU4.png

It was also bad with the other WCar storms (Gamma, Delta, and Zeta), and I think maybe Laura too.

It’s just best to stick with the ensembles until the Euro proves that it can predict genesis better than last year.

[BobHarlem]

12Z GFS fantasy long range a bit east of the Ensembles.

[chaser1]

12Z GFS fantasy long range a bit east of the Ensembles.
https://i.imgur.com/F4Lep0O.gif

That would be a pretty healthy looking 'Cane for June. Not feeling to good about the operational being east of ensembles. This far out, I'd way rather see the GFS bomb-out a system and track it smack over Florida LOL. Any long range depicted landfall would be Florida's instant scratch-off "All Clear" winning ticket. Either way, let's sit back and see if there's any GFS run to run consistency.

[SouthFLTropics]

Lack of run to run consistency on location this far out is not a surprise. That is to be expected. But it does appear that we are seeing some run to run consistency in the operational as well as the ensembles for development in the Western/Central Caribbean and/or Bahamas. Whether it actually develops and where it goes from there are the big unknowns. Looks like the date range for formation seems to be somewhere between 6/12 to 6/16.

One of the biggest things I will be watching for is to see if the Euro operational gets onboard with development. After last years abysmal performance for sniffing out genesis, it has a lot to prove early on.

Lastly, It's good to be back for 2021 on Storm2k. If we include the GoPBI years I think this is my 22nd year onboard. I can't believe it has been that long. Seems like yesterday we were tracking Floyd in 99, and then the epic 04' season with Frances and Jeanne back to back direct hits for me.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wow good to be back. Can't believe it's another year. Watching the models everyone posted. Mid June and models already popping. Well not all yet. Climo says gulf but I guess GFS showing a strong trough. Could change or never happen. Have to wait and see for run to run consistency as usual. Glad be be back reading everyones posts.

[StPeteMike]

Lack of run to run consistency on location this far out is not a surprise. That is to be expected. But it does appear that we are seeing some run to run consistency in the operational as well as the ensembles for development in the Western/Central Caribbean and/or Bahamas. Whether it actually develops and where it goes from there are the big unknowns. Looks like the date range for formation seems to be somewhere between 6/12 to 6/16.

One of the biggest things I will be watching for is to see if the Euro operational gets onboard with development. After last years abysmal performance for sniffing out genesis, it has a lot to prove early on.

Lastly, It's good to be back for 2021 on Storm2k. If we include the GoPBI years I think this is my 22nd year onboard. I can't believe it has been that long. Seems like yesterday we were tracking Floyd in 99, and then the epic 04' season with Frances and Jeanne back to back direct hits for me.

I’ve come to believe long range models are better to use as conditional forecasting and shouldn’t really be viewed as a predictor on actual direction and strength, that should be left with 5-day forecasts. The long range has hinted for days now that the Western Carr. will have good conditions for genesis of a tropical system, the strength is an unknown.

Hopefully people are at least prepared. Not saying anything with transpire but, as last year shown, we don’t know why Mother Nature has planned.

[Dean4Storms]

A good number of ECM ENS on the 00z today picking up possible TC development over mostly in the western GOM come mid month. That 500mb pattern over NA and the MJO helping facilitate this chance.

[robbielyn]

Starting to see some members have genesis within 10 days, but the strongest signals remain past day 10. I wouldn't be surprised if the operational Euro never comes board, that model was HORRENDOUS last year having Eta and Iota as weak lows a week out.
https://i.imgur.com/sKIJowc.png
https://i.imgur.com/newxpU4.png

It was also bad with the other WCar storms (Gamma, Delta, and Zeta), and I think maybe Laura too.

It’s just best to stick with the ensembles until the Euro proves that it can predict genesis better than last year.

it has been updated for this year so maybe it will do better but last year it went south because no planes were flying

[eastcoastFL]

Some pretty strongly signals from the ensembles from Mexico to Bermuda

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the GFS dropped development. Pretty complex right now.

[OuterBanker]

Looks like the GFS dropped development. Pretty complex right now.

Yes and no. Although it dropped the coast rider it still has a weaker system into NC on the 17th as well as a system approaching the TX coast.on the 20th. Long range and a long shot but I think it's seeing the affects of the mjo.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1400910483243347969

[Ubuntwo]

0z EPS has a strong signal for a crossover into the BoC. The operational Euro, CMC, and GFS all support this solution. A couple models still show independent Atlantic development, or nothing at all.

[Ivanhater]

Both the 12Z Canadian and 12Z Euro in very good agreement on a system lifting north into the Gulf from the CAG




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[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS with the same idea as the CMC and Euro



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[toad strangler]

18Z GFS with the same idea as the CMC and Eurohttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210605/14a21fd9a7f8644fc4bfda3b8d723bba.jpg

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That's a classic early season track. Andrea circa 2013 very similar. #climo
We'll see!

[Nimbus]

South Florida has been in a drought so we could use the tropical moisture to get the summer afternoon showers popping.