2021 TCRs

[Yellow Evan]

They should have lowered the intensity to 80 knots based on the CKZ equation for 975.

[zzh]

Elsa is up

[Iceresistance]

Elsa is up

85 mph (75 Knots) & 991 MB at it's peak.

Here's the PDF for Hurricane Elsa for Cycloneye to put up.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052021_Elsa.pdf

[Shell Mound]

Elsa is up

85 mph (75 Knots) & 991 MB at it's peak.

Here's the PDF for Hurricane Elsa for Cycloneye to put up.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052021_Elsa.pdf

Elsa should not have been classified as a hurricane while off the west coast of Florida—surface-based observations (from buoys) only supported ~55 kt at best.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is up

85 mph (75 Knots) & 991 MB at it's peak.

Here's the PDF for Hurricane Elsa for Cycloneye to put up.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052021_Elsa.pdf

Elsa should not have been classified as a hurricane while off the west coast of Florida—surface-based observations (from buoys) only supported ~55 kt at best.

Those are not reliable in determining the peak intensity of a storm. Remember, the area of hurricane force winds were likely over a small area for a brief amount of time. Besides, while some may be located at 10 meters above surface of the water, when waves are heavy those buoys are likely surrounded by waves and are rarely right side up with rough seas. Therefore they aren’t getting the most accurate winds that they could be.

[zzh]

Grace is up. 105/967

[galaxy401]

Hurricane Grace has been released. Peak intensity lowered slightly to 105 kts.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072021_Grace.pdf

It also appears they changed the time when Grace weakened to a TD early in its life. It weakened to a TD as it entered the Caribbean but regained TS strength when it hit Haiti. Originally, Grace became a Tropical Storm again after passing Haiti.

[CrazyC83]

As for the peak intensity, there was an assumption that it strengthened a bit more in the last couple hours before landfall. That does have some value with the satellite intensities, but is not supported by any explicit observations. The fact the pressure did not drop from 2344Z to 0333Z means, if anything, it only dropped a millibar or two (something like 965 mb). That is already quite a high pressure for its intensity (the KZC for 105 kt is about 958 mb). Hence, 105 kt seems reasonable with the main reasoning being the lack of any pressure drop.

[Hurricanehink]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL212021_Wanda.pdf

Wanda is out

[ncforecaster89]

Although it will likely be at least another few weeks before the “Ida” TCR is released, I thought this particular article might be interesting to others here, as well:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.houmat ... 6916379001

In it, the NHC forecasters suggest that they will likely retain the operational 130 kt/150 mph landfall intensity…which I feel is appropriate.

[Category5Kaiju]

I am so looking forward to Sam's TCR.

[Hurricane2021]

I am so looking forward to Sam's TCR.

I'm just waiting to see whether or not the NHC meteorologists will upgrade Sam to Category 5. Keeping Sam at Category 4, in my opinion, wouldn't be the best option.
However, if they find good reasons to keep you in Category 4, that's fine.

[AlphaToOmega]

I am so looking forward to Sam's TCR.

I'm just waiting to see whether or not the NHC meteorologists will upgrade Sam to Category 5. Keeping Sam at Category 4, in my opinion, wouldn't be the best option.
However, if they find good reasons to keep you in Category 4, that's fine.

The NHC will probably keep it at Category IV. I have never seen the NHC change the peak intensity of a storm by more than 5 knots.

Edit: Sam was 135 knots (I thought it was 130 knots). It might very well be upgraded to 140 knots.

[CrazyC83]

I am so looking forward to Sam's TCR.

I'm just waiting to see whether or not the NHC meteorologists will upgrade Sam to Category 5. Keeping Sam at Category 4, in my opinion, wouldn't be the best option.
However, if they find good reasons to keep you in Category 4, that's fine.

The NHC will probably keep it at Category IV. I have never seen the NHC change the peak intensity of a storm by more than 5 knots.

It's rare, and usually only happens when hard data finds something unavailable in real time that clearly suggested a higher intensity.

[Sciencerocks]

I'm just waiting to see whether or not the NHC meteorologists will upgrade Sam to Category 5. Keeping Sam at Category 4, in my opinion, wouldn't be the best option.
However, if they find good reasons to keep you in Category 4, that's fine.

The NHC will probably keep it at Category IV. I have never seen the NHC change the peak intensity of a storm by more than 5 knots.

It's rare, and usually only happens when hard data finds something unavailable in real time that clearly suggested a higher intensity.

Hurricane Andrew want up quite a bit

[Hurricane2021]

I am so looking forward to Sam's TCR.

I'm just waiting to see whether or not the NHC meteorologists will upgrade Sam to Category 5. Keeping Sam at Category 4, in my opinion, wouldn't be the best option.
However, if they find good reasons to keep you in Category 4, that's fine.

The NHC will probably keep it at Category IV. I have never seen the NHC change the peak intensity of a storm by more than 5 knots.

135 to 140 kt is an upgrade of only 5 kt

I believe that if Hurricane Sam is not updated to C5 in the TCR, maybe in the future we will be able to have more detailed analysis and with more evidence found saying that Sam was a C5, along with other hurricanes that came close to Category 5, like Igor, Opal ...

[aspen]

I'm just waiting to see whether or not the NHC meteorologists will upgrade Sam to Category 5. Keeping Sam at Category 4, in my opinion, wouldn't be the best option.
However, if they find good reasons to keep you in Category 4, that's fine.

The NHC will probably keep it at Category IV. I have never seen the NHC change the peak intensity of a storm by more than 5 knots.

It's rare, and usually only happens when hard data finds something unavailable in real time that clearly suggested a higher intensity.

The significant degradation observed by both satellite and recon suggests Sam was stronger earlier in the day. KCZ already supports 140 kt; just a few mbar lower and they might as well upgrade it.

[Hurricane2021]

I think Sam's peak intensity was around 145 kt/922 mb. so maybe 140 kt would still be a bit conservative estimate... in my opinion.

[weeniepatrol]

Nicholas is out;

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142021_Nicholas.pdf

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1498759422088302596

[CrazyC83]

I would have gone with 70 kt for the peak intensity for Nicholas even if the radar data was transient, based on the surface observation (66 kt at 6 m - below standard elevation) on Matagorda Island.