2021 Tropical Waves Thread

[Aric Dunn]

If this keeps up there will be a center reformation slightly to ene with that convection.. and.. wellllll you know..

[cycloneye]

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of
Africa over the next day or so. Some gradual development of this
system is possible by early next week while moving generally
westward over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[CyclonicFury]

Usually we don't see waves marked on the TWO before they exit Africa until late August or September.

[AnnularCane]

Usually we don't see waves marked on the TWO before they exit Africa until late August or September.

Yep. I was just thinking we don't see that in June very often.

[toad strangler]

Spooky

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF has a moderate TS by 72 hours.

[Stormybajan]

Anyone getting 2004-2005 back to back hyperactive season vibes?

[cycloneye]

Already looks impressive.

[Aric Dunn]

Too much more of this and they will have to give it an invest finally.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF has a moderate TS by 72 hours.

Depends to 1002mb and makes it all the way to the islands before weakening, likely due to more hostile conditions in the Eastern Caribbean. It's late June, not September lol.

[MarioProtVI]

If this becomes Danny I’m gonna have serious 2017 flashbacks since the MDR could be primed for its worst season since that year. (June MDR storm followed by extremely strong MDR with the likes of Harvey part 1/Irma/Jose/Maria/Lee part 1).

[Deshaunrob17]

Euro has a reasonable outcome IMO- a weak system.. However, what bothers me is that the Euro is known for being the conservative model in the MDR and the fact it has a lon tracked cyclone makes me wonder

[AutoPenalti]

I'm probably going to be in the minority here but I don't see much in the way of favorability that would make this wave go further than an Invest. The blow-up is likely the amplification of the MJO crossing over which will help it in the short-term but beyond 3-4 days it's going to encounter a wall of unfavorable upper-level winds.

[Stormybajan]

Too much more of this and they will have to give it an invest finally.

Certainly the best its looked but another interesting aspect of this wave is the fact it's never been racing towards the west like they usually do this time of year. If it keeps this up until tonight lets say 8 pm maybe they tag it as an invest although once again chances of that is low

[Aric Dunn]

Too much more of this and they will have to give it an invest finally.

Certainly the best its looked but another interesting aspect of this wave is the fact it's never been racing towards the west like they usually do this time of year. If it keeps this up until tonight lets say 8 pm maybe they tag it as an invest although once again chances of that is low

Well it has come to a near dead stop today...

and they cant ignore it much longer.. Convection is now building near the center.. large curved inflow band is setting up..

this is far better developed than many Td/TS and its not even an invest. lol

[aspen]

The 12z CMC doesn’t show any development, but seeing how it barely even develops 95E, I’m going to exclude this run.

The 12z ICON develops this into a weak TD/TS that makes landfall in the Lesser Antilles at 177 hours out.

I’m shocked that the Euro of all models is showing a bona-fide TC developing in only a few days and surviving all the way across the MDR. I would’ve expected such a solution from the GFS, but it’s also having difficulty turning the wave into a TC.

[tolakram]

I don't think they are ignoring it Aric.

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14798&y=8070&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[HurricaneFrances04]

Quite a few of the 12Z Euro ensemble members are pretty bullish

[weeniepatrol]

Fasten your seatbelts.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1407787273769345024

[EquusStorm]

Just as a frame of reference, we've only had two named storms since we've been naming them in 1950 develop in the MDR east of the Lesser Antilles in June - Ana in 1979 and Bret in 2017. Ensemble guidance strongly suggests we may get a third with this, and it would be much further east than either of those two. Not that it would be long lived, but if entering the Atlantic doesn't make it immediately pause there's little reason it couldn't briefly make the cut.