2022 WPAC Season

[styzeb]

Storms in that area are more promising to become intense than those in the South China Sea. So a major is indeed possible.

[aspen]

The GFS and CMC develop a TC near the Marianas either late this week or this upcoming weekend. You can probably guess what each model does with it.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS genesis looks really spontaneous to me. ECMWF doesn’t have a disturbance even.

[zzh]

EC has it sheared under tutt. GFS is just being GFS.

[zzh]

TSR forecast is out. 23/13/7 ace 217.

The June trade wind anomaly is currently -1.78 ms-1 which is the fifth most negative anomaly since 1965.

When the June trade wind anomaly is in the lowest quartile (< -1.12 ms-1), the mean NW Pacific ACE index is 216.

2022 has the 5th strongest trades since 1965 , (top 3 is 2010, 1998, 2010).

[cycloneye]

Here is the TSR PDF July forecast.

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2022.pdf

[Hayabusa]

It's been a boring first week of July, only a struggling Aere formed. The MJO passage was at its strongest 4 days ago and it spawned 99W and 90W but current model forecasts are meh. I'd rather either of them not named and become a struggling storm so that Songda's high intensity record won't be ruined.

[Category5Kaiju]

2021:


2022:


As you can see here, 2021 was much more active early on than this year. In fact, there's a chance that July could end without a NS formation there since models aren't really excited on development there it seems; either this is going to be a very backloaded typhoon season, or conditions there are genuinely just not favorable this season. Who knows

[Teban54]

2021:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/to7lrh6iq72p1lmptdv4a93v3c5la5p.png

2022:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/357am82t20ti22hpaj8ji82kr7vxref.png

As you can see here, 2021 was much more active early on than this year. In fact, there's a chance that July could end without a NS formation there since models aren't really excited on development there it seems; either this is going to be a very backloaded typhoon season, or conditions there are genuinely just not favorable this season. Who knows

Imagine if this year's EPAC is heavily frontloaded while WPAC is heavily backloaded

[Hayabusa]

A very dull July with currently only one storm formed that struggled and now GFS is developing late July storms but it doesn't get me that excited. They would form in high latitude means less chance of becoming exceptionally intense.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, does anybody have any idea on when activity in the WPAC will pick up? This dead quiet is so atypical of the basin if I am not mistaken; how many other recorded years had no July NSs?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Ok, does anybody have any idea on when activity in the WPAC will pick up? This dead quiet is so atypical of the basin if I am not mistaken; how many other recorded years had no July NSs?

2020 had no July named storms. Same pattern continues, La Nina, rising air stuck over maritime continent - dead Wpac. Might squeeze in a weak TS near Kyushu before month's end. ACE currently 33% of what it should be.

[zzh]

2020 had sinking air over WPAC in July. This year is very different. It is truly weird to see a dead WPAC when intra-seasonal forcing is favorable.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hmmm I must have been interpreting the VP anomaly charts incorrectly. Regardless a sickness has pervaded the basin since 2020, it's very interesting to watch.

[weeniepatrol]

2020 had sinking air over WPAC in July. This year is very different. It is truly weird to see a dead WPAC when intra-seasonal forcing is favorable.

yeah, I'm clueless. Not sure what is going on over there. It's been bizarre. WPAC always wakes up eventually though

[NCSUFan_WX]

GFS and ECMWF hinting at another monsoon gyre set-up similar to In-Fa last year. Doesn't look like anything too significant will come out of 93W or P75W (JTWC 2-week outlook) at this time, but the tug and pull between the 2 systems will be interesting to watch.

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh finally, a storm to track!

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1553037286505230336



 https://twitter.com/zeb199818/status/1553307493853380608

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554480217246560257

[Kingarabian]

Decent chance the WPAC gets some serious ACE courtesy of the CPAC in about 2 weeks.