Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[cycloneye]

Look at this. The UKMET (12Z), which was the first model to develop this exactly one week ago, just brought this back after four runs without it. It has it as a TS moving WNW in the E Caribbean at the end of the run after forming east of the Lesser Antilles at hour 90:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2022

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.7N 53.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2022 96 17.0N 55.1W 1009 36
0000UTC 16.09.2022 108 16.3N 57.9W 1008 37
1200UTC 16.09.2022 120 16.9N 60.0W 1008 38
0000UTC 17.09.2022 132 16.9N 62.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 17.09.2022 144 17.6N 64.4W 1006 37

Do you have the link of the text plots?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1568987232383410181

[LarryWx]

Look at this. The UKMET (12Z), which was the first model to develop this exactly one week ago, just brought this back after four runs without it. It has it as a TS moving WNW in the E Caribbean at the end of the run after forming east of the Lesser Antilles at hour 90:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2022

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.7N 53.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2022 96 17.0N 55.1W 1009 36
0000UTC 16.09.2022 108 16.3N 57.9W 1008 37
1200UTC 16.09.2022 120 16.9N 60.0W 1008 38
0000UTC 17.09.2022 132 16.9N 62.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 17.09.2022 144 17.6N 64.4W 1006 37

Do you have the link of the text plots?

https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt

[LarryWx]

 IF this AEW near 40W were to turn out to be a sleeper and actually become a TC in the MDR on September 15th near 54W as the 12Z UKMET has, it would be very similar in terms of location and date to the geneses of what turned out to be big impact storms in three of the eight 3rd year cold ENSO analogs fwiw:

- 1975: Eloise formed 9/13 near 54W, was the first TS in the MDR that season, and had the biggest impact of any TC that year:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1975.png


- 1917: #4 formed 9/20 near 57W and was the first MDR storm in 3 weeks. This also had the biggest impact of any TC that season:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1917.png


- 1894: #4 formed 9/18 near 51W and was the first MDR storm in nearly 3 weeks. This was among the highest impact storms of the season:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1894.png

[cycloneye]

2 PM discussion:

[crownweather]

 IF this AEW near 40W were to turn out to be a sleeper and actually become a TC in the MDR on September 15th near 54W as the 12Z UKMET has, it would be very similar in terms of location and date to the geneses of what turned out to be big impact storms in three of the eight 3rd year cold ENSO analogs fwiw:

- 1975: Eloise formed 9/13 near 54W, was the first TS in the MDR that season, and had the biggest impact of any TC that year:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1975.png


- 1917: #4 formed 9/20 near 57W and was the first MDR storm in 3 weeks. This also had the biggest impact of any TC that season:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1917.png


- 1894: #4 formed 9/18 near 51W and was the first MDR storm in nearly 3 weeks. This was among the highest impact storms of the season:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1894.png

Also, check out Inez in 1966. Strongest & most impactful hurricane of that season and formed after a quiet spell across the MDR.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1966.png

[LarryWx]

Look at this. The UKMET (12Z), which was the first model to develop this exactly one week ago, just brought this back after four runs without it. It has it as a TS moving WNW in the E Caribbean at the end of the run after forming east of the Lesser Antilles at hour 90:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2022

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.7N 53.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2022 96 17.0N 55.1W 1009 36
0000UTC 16.09.2022 108 16.3N 57.9W 1008 37
1200UTC 16.09.2022 120 16.9N 60.0W 1008 38
0000UTC 17.09.2022 132 16.9N 62.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 17.09.2022 144 17.6N 64.4W 1006 37

Do you have the link of the text plots?

Luis or anyone, can you post the 12Z UKMET 144 map in the Caribbean?

[cycloneye]

Look at this. The UKMET (12Z), which was the first model to develop this exactly one week ago, just brought this back after four runs without it. It has it as a TS moving WNW in the E Caribbean at the end of the run after forming east of the Lesser Antilles at hour 90:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2022

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.7N 53.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2022 96 17.0N 55.1W 1009 36
0000UTC 16.09.2022 108 16.3N 57.9W 1008 37
1200UTC 16.09.2022 120 16.9N 60.0W 1008 38
0000UTC 17.09.2022 132 16.9N 62.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 17.09.2022 144 17.6N 64.4W 1006 37

Do you have the link of the text plots?

Yes, thank you.

[LarryWx]

Look at this. The UKMET (12Z), which was the first model to develop this exactly one week ago, just brought this back after four runs without it. It has it as a TS moving WNW in the E Caribbean at the end of the run after forming east of the Lesser Antilles at hour 90:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2022

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.7N 53.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2022 96 17.0N 55.1W 1009 36
0000UTC 16.09.2022 108 16.3N 57.9W 1008 37
1200UTC 16.09.2022 120 16.9N 60.0W 1008 38
0000UTC 17.09.2022 132 16.9N 62.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 17.09.2022 144 17.6N 64.4W 1006 37

Do you have the link of the text plots?

Yes, thank you.

You're welcome. Are you able to post the 12Z UKMET 144 map in the Caribbean?

[cycloneye]

Do you have the link of the text plots?

Yes, thank you.

You're welcome. Are you able to post the 12Z UKMET 144 map in the Caribbean?

Dont have the link to graphic.

[LarryWx]

Now we can add the 12Z JMA to the 12Z UKMET with a TC from this. I know it isn't a good model, but fwiw the 12Z JMA is the first JMA run to ever have a TC from this AEW. This is the 168, which shows a strengthening TD moving slowly NW in the NE Caribbean. This leads to as much 4" of rainfall in the far NE Caribbean..so this isn't just a weak low:

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS is suddenly MUCH more active with this! This is the most active EPS with this is days and is one of the most active with it yet! I count about 12 hurricanes amongst the 51 members. So, that means that at 12Z that the UKMET, JMA, and the EPS are much more active with this and the strongest with this in days (and ever for the JMA).

Maybe this is going to be a sleeper after all?

Edit: Fwiw, add the 12Z CFS to the list as it has a TD moving from near the Leewards to the Bahamas next week before it recurves between NC and Bermuda.

[LarryWx]

A new convection tower is popping as the sun sets (so still not far after DMIN) near 11N, 40.5W, which may be near the strongest vorticity/weak surface low. Lets see whether or not this expands into DMAX later tonight.

[skyline385]

Lots of activity on the 12Z EPS from this with up to 75% probability of a TD within the 6-day period, could be another Earl repeat

[LarryWx]

Lots of activity on the 12Z EPS from this with up to 75% probability of a TD within the 6-day period, could be another Earl repeat

https://i.imgur.com/3Sbrvr4.png

https://i.imgur.com/RVpcrU5.png

I count nearly 20 hurricanes among the 51 12Z EPS members (~40%) later in the run (has to be one of the most yet this season for this part of the basin) with some really scary runs for the Bahamas (9/18-24) as well as for Bermuda and the CONUS (9/22-26). This has to be one of the most threatening EPS runs for the SE this season to date! I count 7 hurricane hits on the SE (1 FL, 1 GA, 2 SC, 3 NC). In addition, I see 2 direct hits on New England. Yikes, hoping this is just a scary tease!

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge doesn’t fill for a SEFL impact but looks scary for the east coast

[skyline385]

Lots of activity on the 12Z EPS from this with up to 75% probability of a TD within the 6-day period, could be another Earl repeat

https://i.imgur.com/3Sbrvr4.png

https://i.imgur.com/RVpcrU5.png

I count nearly 20 hurricanes among the 51 12Z EPS members (~40%) later in the run (has to be one of the most yet this season for this part of the basin) with some really scary runs for the Bahamas (9/18-24) as well as for Bermuda and the CONUS (9/22-26). This has to be one of the most threatening EPS runs for the SE this season to date! I count 7 hurricane hits on the SE (1 FL, 1 GA, 2 SC, 3 NC). In addition, I see 2 direct hits on New England. Yikes, hoping this is just a scary tease!

I think it’s still too early. Models (particularly the EPS) have overdone the TCG in the MDR and like we saw with Earl, it might not see any development until it’s near the LA.


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[LarryWx]

Lots of activity on the 12Z EPS from this with up to 75% probability of a TD within the 6-day period, could be another Earl repeat

https://i.imgur.com/3Sbrvr4.png

https://i.imgur.com/RVpcrU5.png

I count nearly 20 hurricanes among the 51 12Z EPS members (~40%) later in the run (has to be one of the most yet this season for this part of the basin) with some really scary runs for the Bahamas (9/18-24) as well as for Bermuda and the CONUS (9/22-26). This has to be one of the most threatening EPS runs for the SE this season to date! I count 7 hurricane hits on the SE (1 FL, 1 GA, 2 SC, 3 NC). In addition, I see 2 direct hits on New England. Yikes, hoping this is just a scary tease!

I think it’s still too early. Models (particularly the EPS) have overdone the TCG in the MDR and like we saw with Earl, it might not see any development until it’s near the LA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Isn't that what the 12Z EPS does? Looking at your image and those from Tidbits and Wxnerds, most don't really start to get going til 55-60W or later.

[skyline385]

I count nearly 20 hurricanes among the 51 12Z EPS members (~40%) later in the run (has to be one of the most yet this season for this part of the basin) with some really scary runs for the Bahamas (9/18-24) as well as for Bermuda and the CONUS (9/22-26). This has to be one of the most threatening EPS runs for the SE this season to date! I count 7 hurricane hits on the SE (1 FL, 1 GA, 2 SC, 3 NC). In addition, I see 2 direct hits on New England. Yikes, hoping this is just a scary tease!

I think it’s still too early. Models (particularly the EPS) have overdone the TCG in the MDR and like we saw with Earl, it might not see any development until it’s near the LA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Isn't that what the 12Z EPS does? Looking at your image and those from Tidbits and Wxnerds, most don't really start to get going til 55-60W or later.

You are right, i checked Earl and it developed around 58W. For some reason i thought it’s development was more westwards…


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[LarryWx]

I think it’s still too early. Models (particularly the EPS) have overdone the TCG in the MDR and like we saw with Earl, it might not see any development until it’s near the LA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Isn't that what the 12Z EPS does? Looking at your image and those from Tidbits and Wxnerds, most don't really start to get going til 55-60W or later.

You are right, i checked Earl and it developed around 58W. For some reason i thought it’s development was more westwards…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Tonight's 0Z model consensus along with DMAX satellite images will be interesting. Third year cold ENSO analogs for mid Sept. tell me that this could be trouble.