Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

[Nimbus]

Its November but very strong ridging to the north and SST's are still high enough, how rare.

[chaser1]

18z GFS doubles down on a hurricane moving to the Florida Penninsula.

https://i.imgur.com/Fzbsn7l.gif

It's August, in November. I'm not sure what's more bizarre the idea of a November hurricane approaching Florida from the east.... or a deepening hurricane approaching Puerto Rico from the WSW (earlier model runs for this system).

[NDG]

18z GFS, widespread TS & hurricane force wind gusts across central FL.

[Nimbus]

18z GFS doubles down on a hurricane moving to the Florida Penninsula.

https://i.imgur.com/Fzbsn7l.gif

It's August, in November. I'm not sure what's more bizarre the idea of a November hurricane approaching Florida from the east.... or a deepening hurricane approaching Puerto Rico from the WSW (earlier model runs for this system).

You can see the swirl out in the Atlantic pretty much trapped and stationary.
UKMET has a shallower swing to the south then southwest curving the system up into Cape Canaveral.
GFS has the hurricane coming into south Florida north of Miami.
Euro has the deepest swing bringing a TS way down into the Keys or Miami area.

Not sure the GFS has a handle on intensity yet but a trapped system under the periphery of a high with favorable conditions could be trouble.

We have to wait for Luis to move the thread to active right?

[NDG]

According to the GFS plenty of moisture and low shear for this time of the year.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow this year has not been friendly toward Florida. Like, assuming whatever this thing pans out, 2022 would very well be the worst hurricane season for Florida (especially the Peninsula) since 2004.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS doubles down on a hurricane moving to the Florida Penninsula.

https://i.imgur.com/Fzbsn7l.gif

It's August, in November. I'm not sure what's more bizarre the idea of a November hurricane approaching Florida from the east.... or a deepening hurricane approaching Puerto Rico from the WSW (earlier model runs for this system).

You can see the swirl out in the Atlantic pretty much trapped and stationary.
UKMET has a shallower swing to the south then southwest curving the system up into Cape Canaveral.
GFS has the hurricane coming into south Florida north of Miami.
Euro has the deepest swing bringing a TS way down into the Keys or Miami area.

Not sure the GFS has a handle on intensity yet but a trapped system under the periphery of a high with favorable conditions could be trouble.

We have to wait for Luis to move the thread to active right?

Until invest 97L is up.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 50% in 5 days.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by
the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to
be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of
next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form
during the early to middle portion of next week while the system
moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern
Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of
coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and
beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast,
the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern
Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cane5]

https://i.imgur.com/4Bud4kr.gif

Can someone update the ICON model ????

[SFLcane]

Gfs what are you doing!!! Do you know it’s Nov 4!

[Nimbus]

Maybe the runs will be initialized further west near 21.45 N -71 E as there looks like a low level trough forming near there?

[toad strangler]

Gfs what are you doing!!! Do you know it’s Nov 4!

What? What’s going on in here? Nothing to see here.

Or IS there?

[weatherwindow]

18z GFS doubles down on a hurricane moving to the Florida Penninsula.

https://i.imgur.com/Fzbsn7l.gif

It's August, in November. I'm not sure what's more bizarre the idea of a November hurricane approaching Florida from the east.... or a deepening hurricane approaching Puerto Rico from the WSW (earlier model runs for this system).

A realistic analog that seems to apply is Kate 85….Which formed in the area under similarly unseasonable conditions…… exhibited a curiously similar analogous westerly track north of the greater Antilles and eventually through the Florida straits

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS has backed off from the hurricane idea (at least through Thursday, no sign of it).

[Category5Kaiju]

0z GFS has backed off from the hurricane idea (at least through Thursday, no sign of it).

Completely different setup. It's really a wait and see game at this point imho

[weatherwindow]

18z GFS doubles down on a hurricane moving to the Florida Penninsula.

https://i.imgur.com/Fzbsn7l.gif

It's August, in November. I'm not sure what's more bizarre the idea of a November hurricane approaching Florida from the east.... or a deepening hurricane approaching Puerto Rico from the WSW (earlier model runs for this system).

IMO ….. Kate 85 may prove to be an appropriate analog… forming just northeast of the greater Antilles in early November…Tracking Westward under an anomalous ridge over SST’s more typical of late September than November….. it ultimately passed through the straits into the Gulf and landfell on the north golf course

[Landy]

Up to 10/60.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by
the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected to
be very broad and disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part of
next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form
during the early to middle portion of next week while the system
moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern
Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of
coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and
beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast,
the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern
Bahamas during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[us89]

Whatever winds up happening with this, I hope it rains here in Tallahassee. We’ve had an extremely dry fall and are now up to D2 drought severity around these parts.

[Blown Away]

00z Ukmet

[GCANE]

Shear-induced convection firing south of Hispaniola.
Right on schedule