2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

18z GFS with the happy hour hurricane near the bahamas lol, gotta love it

Funny thing is there is a 947mb 12z EPS member taking nearly the exact same path as happy hour GFS

C'mon in EPS! We welcome all to Happy Hour! Well, the drinks are flowing and It's getting a bit crowded in here. Let's save a seat for NAM in case he decides to join

[zzzh]

Watch for the west Caribbean in day 8-13. EPS, GEFS, GEPS are all on board with some sort of CAG development. Climo favors EPAC development first but in Nina years it tends to favor the Atlantic.

[Stratton23]

And the signal continues to grow on the GEPS and GEFS for some development in the caribbean in the 8-14 day window, we shall see

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1794030358109057276

[BobHarlem]

The GEFS Ensemble is perking up in the West Caribbean later in the cycle.

[Stratton23]

00z GEFS growing in support and has development window moving up into the 8-10 day range now, but it appears whatever tries to develop down in the western caribbean, it will get yanked northward through the islands and then turn NE out to the atlantic, pattern has troughing over the east coast which should turn it away from the US if anything forms down there

[Hurricane2022]

Happy hour GFS? That's not a very long-range forecast.

[Cat5James]

Happy hour GFS? That's not a very long-range forecast.
https://imageshack.com/i/pmA0Jz1rg

Happy Hour is reserved for 18z runs exclusively

[jlauderdal]

Happy hour GFS? That's not a very long-range forecast.
https://imageshack.com/i/pmA0Jz1rg

Happy Hour is reserved for 18z runs exclusively

Yes sir, we are working out the early season kinks. For now, the action is along the red river today, checkout the modeling and soundings, whoa.

[MGC]

What happened to the Bahama's hurricane the GFS was showing? So far 3 phantom storms from the GFS.........MGC

[skyline385]

What happened to the Bahama's hurricane the GFS was showing? So far 3 phantom storms from the GFS.........MGC

Wasnt just the GFS, EPS members were on it too. For both the last AOI as well as the future Caribbean system which GFS was showing. So IMO they weren't pure phantoms like we are used to seeing from the GFS.

[skyline385]

Couple of members showing activity on the EPS from the MJO arriving

[Stratton23]

Once the MJO active phase becomes established over the atlantic, I expect we will probably see alot more activity showing up in the ensembles , and that passage of the MJO will likely occur after the first week of june

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Nice lil blowup in the SW Caribbean associated with the TW we were just tracking through the Antilles a few days ago. Appears to have some ML rotation with it. GFS spins up a TS from it, but the Euro and CMC say no for now, although there is a weak EPS signal.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1795617061953216968

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Nice lil blowup in the SW Caribbean associated with the TW we were just tracking through the Antilles a few days ago. Appears to have some ML rotation with it. GFS spins up a TS from it, but the Euro and CMC say no for now, although there is a weak EPS signal.
https://i.ibb.co/JFzsqpz/94880518.gif
https://i.ibb.co/VBgD9Xx/CAR-latest-sm3-1.gif
https://i.ibb.co/3c02LvQ/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh48-102.gif
https://i.ibb.co/VqL7n73/83281869.gif

To absolutely no one's surprise, GFS caved to the other guidance in showing no development now


Still like that second week of June timeframe for things to get going.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS long range starting to see that favorable MJO passage making its mark in the atlantic with some development in the bay of campache, probably will be gone on the next run, but it is a sign that an active period is on the horizon

[kevin]

06z GFS, a depression which already consolidates around +90 hrs and travels over Hispaniola. It briefly seems to become a TC during 160 - 190 hrs while travelling north. 00z Euro also shows it, albeit even weaker at 1009 mb and for a shorter period of time.



Multiple 00z GEFS members were also hinting at this possibility. Maybe the first (sloppy) TC of the year?

[Stratton23]

Kevin unlikely, ensembles arent showing much of anything, probably will just stay a weak open wave axis

[jlauderdal]

18z GFS long range starting to see that favorable MJO passage making its mark in the atlantic with some development in the bay of campache, probably will be gone on the next run, but it is a sign that an active period is on the horizon

Not much in the cards until at least the 2nd week of June, early season activity, whether active or not, isn't a predictor of later season activity. The stars need to align to crank up the activity and remember warm water is just one ingredient to make it happen. Fortunately, there is plenty to get in the way of hurricanes. pacific waters are cooling, which isn't ideal for the Atlantic side of things. Best thing you can do is prepare and if you are on a budget, build your supplies now over time.