Area of Interest in NE Gulf: (Is Invest 93L)

[GCANE]

Convection may not look pretty but the low-level vort is deepening and shear is dropping.
Getting some well-defined rotation on MIMIC-TPW now.

Do you have the MIMIC-TPW animation? Members may want to see it.

In this link
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[ronjon]

Convection blossoming east of Florida this am. LLC appears to be just south of the northern edge of convection about 150 mi east of the Cape. Some NE shear at the moment. Let's hope we get an INVEST designated today.

[GCANE]

Operational EMC RAP has now defined a surface low of 1016mb east of JAX

[BobHarlem]

Convection may not look pretty but the low-level vort is deepening and shear is dropping.
Getting some well-defined rotation on MIMIC-TPW now.

Do you have the MIMIC-TPW animation? Members may want to see it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/mimictpw_natl_latest.gif

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1944749906645712984

[cycloneye]

Recon for tuesday afternoon.

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1010 AM EDT MON 14 JULY 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JULY 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-044

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 15/1600Z
D. 30.0N 80.0W
E. 15/1730Z TO 15/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW LEVEL INVEST
H. WRA ACTIVATION

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO SUSPECT
AREA OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29.0N 86.0W FOR 16/1800Z

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1944766982282158124



 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1944767882086269049

[BobHarlem]

Is that a low level spin on the north end?

[tropicwatch]

Is that a low level spin on the north end?
https://i.imgur.com/TfFch2x.gif

There are indications that there is a surface circulation.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-74.73,27.56,2184/loc=-78.688,29.782

[Ivanhater]

This is already stronger than what guidance was advertising

[wxman57]

I don't think recon will fly tomorrow. It should be over the Florida peninsula in the vicinity of Orlando to Daytona Beach tomorrow. It moves into the NE Gulf early Wednesday. Given that the NHC has demonstrated a willingness to upgrade any weak circulation, I'd say there is a high chance we'll have TD Four in the NE Gulf by Wednesday afternoon and a very good chance NHC will upgrade it to TS Dexter before it moves into SE LA by Thursday evening. Every model except the ICON indicates a rather weak low. ICON is just looking ridiculous now, with it having 65-70 kt winds east of the center as it passes near Monroe Louisiana on Friday morning. ICON did well last year, but I'm not trusting it with this system. No run-to run consistency with it. NE shear may be an issue.

[MGC]

Certainly looks like a circulation there on the north side of the convection. Shear should keep it in check. Perhaps the ICON is on to something......MGC

[BobHarlem]

12z Icon slightly stronger than the 6z

[wxman57]

It already looks as organized as Chantal was. I think it's a safe bet that the NHC will be increasing development chances very significantly in future outlooks today and tonight. Heck, if recon flew out there this afternoon then the NHC may classify it as a TS. Recon is scheduled for tomorrow, but it will be over the FL Peninsula then. Recon on Wednesday should confirm an LLC in the Gulf and it'll be upgraded to TD Four. I have a very hard time believing the ICON's intensity.

[WaveBreaking]

The ICON has consistently shown the AOI rapidly improving its structure right before landfall for the past couple of runs. That’s something to keep in mind imo due to the high SSTs, relatively low shear, and the AOI seemingly being ahead of schedule in terms of structure atm.

[cycloneye]

What all are waiting for this when it will be tagged as invest 93L. My gut tells me that in the next 2-4 hours or earlier, it will be up.

[jaguars_22]

One thing I'm noticing is that the high pressure builds in after "Dexter" makes landfall in Louisiana. This is what is keeping it away from Texas and giving it more time over water... if it was slower with development then it would possibly get pushed further west correct?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1944781136380526815

[BobHarlem]

The 12z GFS is still struggling with this system, may be partly why we don't have an invest yet. Globals really don't handle these smaller weak/sheared things well.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1944785146294452683

[Pas_Bon]

The 12z GFS is still struggling with this system, may be partly why we don't have an invest yet.

Honestly, the GFS has struggled with life this year.