Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[SFLcane]

12z Euro with hurricane into Tampa Bay. Of course 14 days away so fantasy at this point. Increasing signals however for something to develop in the central or western Caribbean from the globals.

Its ok tonight the gfs and euro drop everything.

[Fancy1002]

AI Deep Mind at 12z is Gulf of Honduras heavy.

https://i.imgur.com/xGhpqc6.jpeg

Some of those ensembles are very concerning if they start drifting to the northeast, or don’t weaken before the drift.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I’m sorry, but based on what i’ve seen this season, the GFS cannot be trusted or even used to make decisions.

[Kazmit]

I’m sorry, but based on what i’ve seen this season, the GFS cannot be trusted or even used to make decisions.

It was one of the first to sniff this one out. But yeah, for the most part it has been pretty useless this season.

[psyclone]

We just ended the rainy season but it's actually dry here. we need some rain. I'm pessimistic it actually happens. Nevertheless...I would happily accept a late season slop fest with some good party squalls.

[LarryWx]

Happy Hour GFS: forms again in S Car but never goes W of 70W; goes NNE between Hisp and PR

12Z UKMET: still has no TCG but map for 168 shows a well organized surface low/vorticity in S Car moving W S of Jamaica and well E of Nicaragua

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 16 2025


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 27.5W, from 06N to 15N just WSW of
the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at around 15 kt. Nearby
convection is described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ below.

[Nuno]

We just ended the rainy season but it's actually dry here. we need some rain. I'm pessimistic it actually happens. Nevertheless...I would happily accept a late season slop fest with some good party squalls.

One of the driest wet seasons ive seen. We will be back in drought by December. So disappointing

[Stormlover70]

We just ended the rainy season but it's actually dry here. we need some rain. I'm pessimistic it actually happens. Nevertheless...I would happily accept a late season slop fest with some good party squalls.

One of the driest wet seasons ive seen. We will be back in drought by December. So disappointing

I prefer dry over last year's storms

[AutoPenalti]

It took a whole 24 hrs for Derek Ortt to recognize the high chances of development in the Caribbean from global models agreeing after saying yesterday that most likely this was going to be a ghost storm.

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1978523872958783525

He’s extremely biased, but hasn’t been that wrong so far this season.

[chaser1]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Oct 16 2025


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 27.5W, from 06N to 15N just WSW of
the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at around 15 kt. Nearby
convection is described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ below.

Well, that explains their ignoring the present feature. In contrast however, NHC will pop a lemon on a disturbance while still over Africa provided strong model support for development. Go figure

[zzzh]

It took a whole 24 hrs for Derek Ortt to recognize the high chances of development in the Caribbean from global models agreeing after saying yesterday that most likely this was going to be a ghost storm.

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1978523872958783525

It seems like he only cares about ECAI when it shows nothing See the tweets below when ECAI shows strong hurricanes back in August.
 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1952798935744905456


 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1955415113839845459

[LarryWx]

0Z
Icon: big change from prior runs with virtually no sfc low and the main part of its H5 vorticity recurves sharply into Haiti

It almost looks like a split with something else weak going into SW Caribbean headed for Nicaragua/Costa Rica.

Edit: UKMET still has yet to have a run with a TCG in the Caribbean from this.

CMC: has yet to have a TCG in the Caribbean as it once again has TCG E of the Car that heads through the Lesser Antilles; ends in W Caribbean as a weakening low

GFS: TCG S of Dom. Republic; moves slowly N to E tip of Dom. Republic and then accelerates NNE OTS

[chaser1]

Oh no Larry, you may have just let the remaining tropical wave air, out of the bag LOL. Might this now trigger the first "rest of the season cancel posts"

[LarryWx]

Oh no Larry, you may have just let the remaining tropical wave air, out of the bag LOL. Might this now trigger the first "rest of the season cancel posts"

Chaser, I just report what the models say, especially with nobody else doing so…it’s like a library in here this evening.

0Z Euro: no season cancel for it as it again pretty similarly takes its time with a TCG ~10/23-4 in SW Caribbean with a N move to W. Jamaica and C. Cuba followed by NNE recurve to C. Bahamas. Cat 2 H C Cuba to C Bahamas.

At 2AM, it still didn’t make the TWO.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Oct 16 2025


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands near 30W from 15N southward, and moving west around
15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
from 04N to 12N between 27W and 36W.

[Cachondo23]

What’s the main reason of why some tracks suddenly heading N to NE?

[cycloneye]

06z GFS continues with the Haiti/DR route.

[cycloneye]

8:15 AM TWD:

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Oct 16 2025

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W/32W S of
18N, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 30W and 34W.

[Zonacane]

What’s the main reason of why some tracks suddenly heading N to NE?

This time of year troughs really start to dig down into the Caribbean and pull tropical storms north to the detriment of everybody around the storm