Tropical Depression 19,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #101 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 5:46 pm

Some convection is trying to form over the LLC. Maybe we can get another LEE!!!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #102 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 6:09 pm

The convection is still forming right over the LLC. It becoming inline with the LLC. Come on 19 become a tropical storm you deserve it you will be a nice fish.

#103 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 6:10 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #104 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 6:11 pm

Come on convection just 5 more mph!!!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #105 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 6:34 pm

The LLC is becoming better defined at every frame. In the convection is trying to form over it. I expect this maybe taking a run at tropical storm.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

#106 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 6:41 pm

Yes there is convection over the low but let's see if it persists.

#107 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 6:49 pm

T#;s at:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1006.3mb/ 47.0kt
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/odt/odt1.html

#108 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 6:49 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Come on convection just 5 more mph!!!

Ill join you on that. Come on come on come on!!!!

<RICKY>

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #109 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 6:59 pm

LLC centered at 15 north/34.5...Becoming much more defined with convection forming over it. It will not take very much for this to become a tropical storm. COME ON STAN!!!

#110 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 7:01 pm

Come on Stan. go go go go!!

<RICKY>

#111 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 7:03 pm

Not so fast guys as TD20 can be Stan later tonight.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #112 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 7:06 pm

Cycloneye do you see the increase of organizion on that satellite like I do?

#113 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 7:12 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 34.2W...OR 595
NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AT 01/2100 UTC MOVING NNW 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. AFTER MAINTAINING A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION
NEAR ITS CENTER LAST NIGHT...T.D. 19 HAS SUCCUMBED TO STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED WITH
DISORGANIZED TSTM ACTIVITY TO THE E. RECENTLY HOWEVER...A FEW
TSTM CELLS HAVE BEGUN TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER AND IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THESE CAN WITHSTAND THE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
28W-36W.

8 PM Discussion About TD19.

Hyperstorm · #114 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 7:15 pm

During the afternoon hours, the low-level vortex that I mentioned earlier near 15N has become MUCH better defined (It appears to have closed since this morning when it appeared quite open.). This will only mean that the tropical depression will probably remain as a tropical cyclone for the time being.

Convection has been building during the afternoon, which has caused the LLC to tighten up. Any further increase in deep convection over the low will cause an upgrade to tropical storm status. In any case, if it becomes a tropical storm, it should be a very weak storm due to unfavorable conditions ahead of it.

I certainly don't expect an upgrade at 11 pm. If it were to be upgraded, it would certainly be during the day tomorrow, once/IF convection persists over the low and is not pushed away due to the fairly unfavorable upper-level winds...

truballer#1 · #115 Postby **truballer#1** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 7:33 pm

what if both td 19 and 20 are upgraded on the same advisory, how does NHC decide which storm gets which name?

Coredesat · #116 Postby **Coredesat** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 7:46 pm

Flip a coin? :lol:

#117 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 7:48 pm

They go in order. Since 19 comes before 20, TD 19 would be Stan and TD 20 would be Tammy if they were to be upgraded at same time.

<RICKY>

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #118 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 8:36 pm

Big blow up of convection right over the LLC. It looks like its right on its way to becoming a tropical storm.

Scorpion · #119 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Oct 01, 2005 8:48 pm

Come on do it. Beat 1933!!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #120 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 3:19 am

Convection has become much better organized. This appears organized enough to be upgraded.

Tropical Depression 19,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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