TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#101 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:09 pm

thunderchief wrote:The westerlies are getting further south and the north gulf is cooling... the 'second coming of ivan' is pushing it a bit I think. All possibilities further south are on the table however.



wow, i guess you missed to humor in the post.....relax
0 likes   

User avatar
thunderchief
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 306
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:03 pm

#102 Postby thunderchief » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:09 pm

that trough could definetly bypass the storm, causing a similar track to mitch. too early to tell.
0 likes   

CHRISTY

#103 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:12 pm

Image your right its just a td but when you see this i think this something to watch carefully..
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145677
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#104 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:12 pm

WHXX04 KWBC 152319
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.6 78.8 260./ 2.9
6 17.7 79.0 309./ 1.9
12 17.7 79.3 264./ 2.9
18 17.4 80.3 254./10.2
24 17.1 80.5 208./ 3.8
30 16.9 80.3 130./ 2.9
36 16.7 80.2 161./ 2.1
42 16.7 80.1 99./ .6
48 16.9 80.1 9./ 1.9
54 17.3 80.2 350./ 5.0
60 17.5 80.6 300./ 4.0
66 17.8 80.9 300./ 3.9
72 18.0 81.2 302./ 4.0
78 18.1 81.5 295./ 3.0
84 18.0 81.9 258./ 3.6
90 18.2 82.0 328./ 2.2
96 18.5 82.2 336./ 3.4
102 19.0 82.2 350./ 4.6
108 19.4 82.4 337./ 4.6
114 20.0 82.7 338./ 6.6
120 20.6 82.9 341./ 5.9
126 21.2 82.8 6./ 6.6



18z GFDL.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

MiamiensisWx

#105 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:14 pm

How strong does the latest GFDL run you showed above take TD 24 now, cycloneye?
0 likes   

CHRISTY

#106 Postby CHRISTY » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:16 pm

i think that is the lastest gfdl run....
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145677
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#107 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:17 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:How strong does the latest GFDL run you showed above take TD 24 now, cycloneye?


I dont have the link to the GFDL graphics but I am sure that very soon someone will post this 18z run.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

truballer#1

#108 Postby truballer#1 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:18 pm

Image
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#109 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:18 pm

The Gfdl was taking it to 898 millibars with 151 knots. I don't see what the Gfdl is seeing...All I see is a disorganized depression having a hard time becoming a tropical storm. We will see in short order what this wents to do.
0 likes   

fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#110 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:19 pm

It's not having a hard time, the pressure's down and the recon found higher winds.
0 likes   

tracyswfla
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 792
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
Location: Rochester, NY

#111 Postby tracyswfla » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:20 pm

what the? The spaghetti model runs shows a southwest movement. What is up with all the concern/speculation for south Florida?
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#112 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:21 pm

truballer#1, is that the latest GFDL run? If it is, interesting that it is now developing it much less than before...
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#113 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:21 pm

Image
0 likes   

truballer#1

#114 Postby truballer#1 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:21 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:truballer#1, is that the latest GFDL run? If it is, interesting that it is now developing it much less than before...


yea thats the latest run. not as strong as last time
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
0 likes   

Scorpion

#115 Postby Scorpion » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:22 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:truballer#1, is that the latest GFDL run? If it is, interesting that it is now developing it much less than before...


GFDL tends to do this. It went from forecasting a 916 mb Cat 5 Rita to a Cat 1 Rita when it was still an invest.
0 likes   

fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#116 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:22 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:truballer#1, is that the latest GFDL run? If it is, interesting that it is now developing it much less than before...


Not really, they always make their intensity forecasts much lower than they are originally.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#117 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:22 pm

it is the latest run, only brings it down to 950mb....however it has been back and forth on intensity...so take it with a grain of salt
0 likes   

fasterdisaster
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1868
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 4:41 pm
Location: Miami, Florida

#118 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:24 pm

The winds will likely be 35 mph in the next advisory.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145677
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#119 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:26 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:The winds will likely be 35 mph in the next advisory.


We will know in a few minutes when the 00:00z BAM models come out.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38100
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#120 Postby Brent » Sat Oct 15, 2005 7:29 pm

CHRISTY wrote:uh no.. not mitch this is suppose to move north.


Mitch was supposed to move north...
0 likes   
#neversummer


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Blown Away, Cpv17, Google Adsense [Bot], HurricaneFan, TomballEd and 64 guests