Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

cajungal · #101 Postby **cajungal** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:02 am

Typhoon_Willie wrote:You mean Fred I think, not Barney!

Sorry, you are right! I need to brush up on my cartoons. LOL!

#102 Postby **dcuevas** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:05 am

Good Morning All! Just got online to check it out..... HOLLY CRAP HERE WE GO AGAIN! I'm in Tampa and I don't like it... Waiting to here from Boca and Floydbuster.

#103 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:06 am

11 AM NHC track.

cajungal · #104 Postby **cajungal** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:10 am

And very large circle of error this far out.

x-y-no · #105 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:11 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:maybe it will run into central america before it gets too organized.... I know that they would have flooding rains but, it would be the least amount of destruction before it gets any stronger.

I think it's a little late to hope for it not to organize at this point. This flareup is impressive as can be, and I don't think this is just another flare-and-die-down cycle.

DESTRUCTION5 · #106 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:18 am

x-y-no wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:maybe it will run into central america before it gets too organized.... I know that they would have flooding rains but, it would be the least amount of destruction before it gets any stronger.

I think it's a little late to hope for it not to organize at this point. This flareup is impressive as can be, and I don't think this is just another flare-and-die-down cycle.

Heck no..Some of the nastiest for a TS i have ever seen

El Nino · #107 Postby **El Nino** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:19 am

Some convection starting to fire up on the Western side ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

floridahurricaneguy · #108 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:20 am

She is nasty. I am nervous models are shifting back to me. I find it scary that two models I think remained the same on hitting Tampa from the start. Then the two that when crazy still came back to west coast. I still think its going that way I like I thought earlier.

When will it start moving more westnorthwest or nw.

matt

#109 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:25 am

I'm basing this on climatology! I'm going w/ a path between Fl Straits and Ft. Myers. The Big Bend to Panhandle path, I think the troughs won't allow Wilma that far N, and for Tampa hurricanes don't like Tampa. Scientific data is always better for tracking, but these storms more times than not take common paths. IMHO

DESTRUCTION5 · #110 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:28 am

When does the Ukie come out again?

Derek Ortt · #111 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:33 am

convective burst is not going to last much longer. Nice large outflow boundary on the nroth side

this has about 24 more hours before it really gets going

DESTRUCTION5 · #112 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:34 am

Derek Ortt wrote:convective burst is not going to last much longer. Nice large outflow boundary on the nroth side

this has about 24 more hours before it really gets going

New Forecast Ortt?

bobbutts · #113 Postby **bobbutts** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:35 am

They're going to have to reposition the floater to the south if this motion keeps up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

For me the models are out the window for now and it's wait and see. I don't see any indication of NW motion as the dry air just pours in over cuba and the yucatan.

Between the recon at 20:30z last night and today's nhc 1500z the storm has moved 100mi ssw..

x-y-no · #114 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:36 am

12Z GFS run is starting. Initialization looks reasonable - has the center at bout 17N 80W or so, with what looks like a good representation of the mid and upper air setup.

Forecast frames should start rolling out in a little bit.

#115 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:40 am

Blown_away wrote:I'm basing this on climatology! I'm going w/ a path between Fl Straits and Ft. Myers. The Big Bend to Panhandle path, I think the troughs won't allow Wilma that far N, and for Tampa hurricanes don't like Tampa. Scientific data is always better for tracking, but these storms more times than not take common paths. IMHO

Grrrrrrrr.. :lol:

I don't see landfall that far South. Wilma would have to make some sharp turn. Hey, anything is possible.

Weatherfreak14 · #116 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:41 am

I don't think that there won't be much change in the models may be a little to the left.

x-y-no · #117 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:51 am

Slightly south of the 6Z run's position at 12Z tomorrow:

It's a little slower breaking down the mid-level ridge in the western Gulf, though ...

#118 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 10:58 am

Would this current SW movement change the endgame or does it just change the angle of the forecasted "turn"?

x-y-no · #119 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:01 am

Out to 54 hours now:

Still ever so slightly SW of the 6Z track. Also, a little weaker.

artist · #120 Postby **artist** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:01 am

from what I have been reading - just the angle.

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