Tropical Wave at Caribbean

CHRISTY · #101 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:36 pm

any info on maybe when this may become an invest?

#102 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:40 pm

No troughs to pull this possible invest out to sea:

Here is the setup 144 hours from now as predicted by the GFS:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005102912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

#103 Postby **Ground_Zero_92** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:41 pm

CHRISTY wrote:is there model runs on this wave yet? interesting setup with a high to the north of it .... lets see how far west this thing gets before another trough comes and turns it north. florida maybe??

Please don't say Florida. I am writing this on generator and a cell phone connection. Six days and counting without power. I can't imagine another system coming our way while we still have no power from Wilma. This has been one hell of a season.

If anyone has any early model runs for this potential invest, please post them.

CHRISTY · #104 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:42 pm

so this wave is a threat to what area? if it even developes?

#105 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 4:42 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

it's way too early to call Florida at this point. In fact, we don't even have an invest yet.

I speculate it will move on a W to WNW track and it may find the weakness in the ridge that exists around 60W, although that is unlikely because there will only be a small window for it to do so. A stronger system at this point would find this weakness. That weakness will be replaced by rising heights by 48 hours.

The more plausible scenario is for it to track W through the Lesser Antilles and just south of the Greater Antilles at this point. After that, current global models show ridging at 144 hours over the Eastern U.S that could possibly move this wave into the Southeastern U.S. but again it's very premature to speculate on FL impacts.

#106 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 5:13 pm

it's looking very strong this evening, I imagine we'll have an invest very soon on it.

#107 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 5:58 pm

Not going to be a fish, unfortunately :eek:

#108 Postby **fci** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:49 pm

boca_chris wrote:Not going to be a fish, unfortunately

Why not a fish?
I thought I heard TWC say this morning that it would move north and bring rain to Puerto Rico and the Bahamas.

Beyond that , it would be a fish wouldn't it? :?:

Website · #109 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:52 pm

I think it would be nearly impossible for it to make it to Florida.

#110 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:54 pm

From the 5:30 PM TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

In addition the GFS is showing ridging all the way to FL over the next week with the only chance of this turning northward would be in the next 48 hours as it encounters a small weakness at 60W, however, I don't think it will turn there:

Here is the GFS 144 hour. It doesn't pick up on this wave quite yet but it shows why a turn out to sea is not likely :eek:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005102918&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

#111 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:56 pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think it would be nearly impossible for it to make it to Florida.

Why because it's almost November? I've been burned by following climatology this season so I've thrown it out the door on this one.

#112 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:06 pm

Current wind shear for our wave looks favorable for development:

#113 Postby **canetracker** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:35 pm

Now Invest 92L!

lilbump3000 · #114 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:44 pm

Here are the first model runs

Thunder44 · #115 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:48 pm

372
WHXX01 KWBC 300018
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20051030 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051030 0000 051030 1200 051031 0000 051031 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 52.0W 13.9N 55.6W 14.7N 59.1W 15.8N 62.2W
BAMM 13.5N 52.0W 13.7N 55.6W 14.2N 59.2W 15.0N 62.6W
A98E 13.5N 52.0W 13.6N 54.3W 14.0N 57.0W 14.5N 59.8W
LBAR 13.5N 52.0W 13.9N 55.2W 14.6N 58.2W 15.2N 61.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051101 0000 051102 0000 051103 0000 051104 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 65.1W 20.1N 70.5W 24.5N 72.4W 28.3N 65.2W
BAMM 16.1N 65.9W 18.9N 72.4W 22.7N 76.3W 27.3N 73.7W
A98E 15.0N 62.9W 16.9N 69.0W 18.7N 74.6W 21.9N 77.6W
LBAR 15.3N 64.0W 15.5N 69.8W 16.7N 75.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 61KTS 60KTS 51KTS
DSHP 51KTS 45KTS 47KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 52.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 50.2W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 47.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

#116 Postby **WxGuy1** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:49 pm

Too bad there isn't a BAMS run yet. For those who don't know, the BAM has three variations -- BAMS, BAMM, and BAMD. The BAMS is best suited for shallow storms, as it uses the average 850-700mb wind. The BAMM uses the 850-500mb mean wind, while the BAMD variety uses the 850-250mb mean wind. Typically, TDs and weak TSs are best suited by the BAMS and BAMM, with stronger TSs and hurricanes tend to be forecast better by the BAMD.

#117 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 7:55 pm

Why is it showing Florida on the track map?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

#118 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:00 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Why is it showing Florida on the track map?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

That is an old track dixie.

#119 Postby **canetracker** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:02 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Why is it showing Florida on the track map?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

???? Maybe just a default screen til they get an advisory track???

Website · #120 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 29, 2005 8:02 pm

Interesting...

Tropical Wave at Caribbean

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