90L Invest SW Caribbean

[cycloneye]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A 1010
MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 9.5N81W NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY
STATIONARY FRONT. PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA
AND SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING
BETTER-DEFINED... ALL HALLMARKS OF DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD DRIFT NW WITH LIGHT STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 79W-83W S OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND.



2 PM Discussion.

[lalvarado]

I realize the topography of Nicaragua is very mountainous with dirt and clay roads leading to most villages along the slopes of hills and in vulnerable valleys prone to flood. That is why the Nicaraguan government needs to begin helping people move out now (and our government needs to begin offering resources, especially helicopter airlift, now). It will take a couple of days to get SOUTHCOM (the US Southern Command of our military, whose area of responsibility includes Central America) assets positioned and ready to begin evacuation flights. I am very concerned that in about 72 hours they will be looking at their version of New Orleans. We all heard the discussions of how long it takes a society with modern transportation infrastructure, like ours, to evacuate dense urban areas like Houston and New Orleans. 72 hours seems to be a magic number. It would seem to me that while the government in Nicaragua faces a much different type of problem (transporting large numbers of evacuees out of rural highland villages using unpaved roads)....the net result is the same.....that it would take at least 72 hours. If anyone on this list has access to emergency management officials down there, they need to get moving now to avoid a massive loss of life. I realize that residents there will view this as being a disruption to their livelihood and many will not feel it necessary to leave their homes now, but when the rains come it will be too late. The analogy of rural inland highland flooding in Central America to the storm surge threat along coastal American population centers is clear. We have learned again, the hard way in 2005, that being proactive in dealing with this threat it is essential in saving lives.



Over the last couple of hours that visible imagery has been available, the disturbance southeast of Nicaragua has begun to look more like a developing depression. I see nothing that would stop it from becoming Hurricane Beta. The GFDL run, which has Beta intensifying into a 950 millibar storm and then drifting westward across Nicaragua toward the Pacific....would be a disaster if it verifies. For my part, I am calling the 25th Operational Weather Squadron at Davis-Monthan AFB in Arizona, the command responsible for briefing SOUTHCOM's leadership on weather threats in their area of interest. All I can do is pass along my concerns in an unofficial capacity as a concerned citizen (I am not in that chain of command), but I hope someone at least begins to make contingency plans to help and leans forward better prepared to act.



Very Respectfully,

Lt Colonel Richard G. Henning, USAF Reserve

53rd WRS. Keesler AFB, MS


Meteorologist GS-12
46th WS/WST 601 W. Choctawhatchee Ave, Suite 60
Eglin AFB, FL 32542-5719
(850) 882-6798

Cell: (850) 499-0151
email: richard.henning@eglin.af.mil

[cycloneye]

26/1745 UTC 10.1N 81.3W T1.5/1.5 90 -- Atlantic Ocean

[El Nino]

26/1745 UTC 10.1N 81.3W T1.5/1.5 90 -- Atlantic Ocean

Hmmm approaching TD status ...

NHC has pointed out this thing to become a tropical cyclone in 36 hours ... 65% of chance to become something interesting IMO.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20051026 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051026 1800 051027 0600 051027 1800 051028 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.2N 81.1W 10.9N 82.1W 11.8N 83.1W 12.8N 84.3W
BAMM 10.2N 81.1W 11.0N 82.1W 11.8N 83.0W 12.6N 84.0W
A98E 10.2N 81.1W 10.3N 82.3W 10.4N 83.6W 10.4N 85.2W
LBAR 10.2N 81.1W 10.9N 81.9W 12.3N 82.8W 14.1N 84.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051028 1800 051029 1800 051030 1800 051031 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.7N 85.6W 14.3N 88.2W 13.7N 91.5W 13.1N 95.4W
BAMM 13.2N 85.0W 13.1N 87.5W 11.9N 91.1W 10.7N 95.6W
A98E 10.2N 86.9W 9.6N 90.9W 9.1N 95.4W 8.1N 99.8W
LBAR 16.4N 85.0W 20.5N 84.6W 24.5N 80.6W 29.1N 73.7W
SHIP 50KTS 53KTS 49KTS 41KTS
DSHP 29KTS 27KTS 26KTS 18KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.2N LONCUR = 81.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 79.8W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 78.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Models.

[Brent]

It's very close to being a TD... I think it will be one by tomorrow morning at 11am at the latest.

[no advance]

Looks like a TD to me. Look at NHC closeup of the system. Look at the top page of the picture. There is Florida. ?

[El Nino]

Could this system dissipate before reaching land ? I don't think so ... Looks like we could hear in the near future "Beta has killed a few hundred people in Nicaragua" ...

[f5]

Interesting, situation looks similar to Katrina 1999 where it ran out of time before hitting Central America.

well she came back this year and caused alot of destruction

[Sanibel]

This is absolutely amazing. Someone should check this out. I think this is possibly the southern-most developing system ever in the West Caribbean. I've visited Boca Del Toro, Panama. The storm is just offshore to the NE over the Gulf of Panama. Cyclones almost never form there.



It looks so far south that it will get caught in the EPAC cross-over easterlies and go into the Pacific...

[El Nino]

I saw it too. I don't remember such thing. This is latitude 10.1N I think and we all know that a hurricane should form better N of 10°N.

[gatorcane]

NHC says she's drifting NW.

Here we go again.

Beta to enter the NW Caribbean possibly....

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I can bring up two that formed down there, Sanibel

Date: 22 OCT-05 NOV 1998
Hurricane MITCH
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 12.80 -77.90 10/22/03Z 30 1001 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2 12.70 -78.50 10/22/09Z 30 1001 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
3 12.00 -78.00 10/22/15Z 30 1001 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
4 11.50 -77.60 10/22/21Z 40 1000 TROPICAL STORM
5 12.30 -77.60 10/23/03Z 45 999 TROPICAL STORM
6 13.00 -77.50 10/23/09Z 50 997 TROPICAL STORM
7 12.70 -77.90 10/23/15Z 50 999 TROPICAL STORM



Date: 21-25 NOV 1969
Hurricane MARTHA
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 10.30 -81.00 11/21/12Z 45 - TROPICAL STORM
2 10.30 -81.00 11/21/18Z 55 - TROPICAL STORM
3 10.30 -81.00 11/22/00Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
4 10.30 -81.00 11/22/06Z 70 - HURRICANE-1
5 10.30 -81.00 11/22/12Z 80 979 HURRICANE-1
6 10.20 -81.00 11/22/18Z 75 - HURRICANE-1
7 10.10 -81.00 11/23/00Z 70 986 HURRICANE-1
8 10.00 -81.00 11/23/06Z 65 - HURRICANE-1
9 9.80 -81.00 11/23/12Z 60 999 TROPICAL STORM
10 9.60 -81.00 11/23/18Z 60 - TROPICAL STORM
11 9.40 -81.00 11/24/00Z 60 1000 TROPICAL STORM
12 9.20 -81.00 11/24/06Z 60 - TROPICAL STORM
13 9.00 -81.00 11/24/12Z 60 1000 TROPICAL STORM
14 8.80 -81.10 11/24/18Z 40 - TROPICAL STORM
15 8.70 -81.30 11/25/00Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
16 8.60 -81.60 11/25/06Z 30 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
17 8.50 -82.00 11/25/12Z 25 - TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[gtalum]

NHC says she's drifting NW.

Here we go again.

Beta to enter the NW Caribbean possibly....

This storm has to go due N to get past Central America. It's drifting NW, which will cause it to hit Nicaragua and rain out. Bad for Nicaragua, but there's no chance of this storm getting into the NW Caribbean.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

but there's no chance of this storm getting into the NW Caribbean

You should know better than to say that this year.

[TS Zack]

What do we use once through the Greek Alphabet?

[rockyman]

1906 Hurricane:


1996 Cesar (southern tracker):


1988 Joan (historic Cat 4):
[/img]

1969 Martha (wow!):

[gtalum]

You should know better than to say that this year.

Despite the mythical status of this hurricane season, storm systems still follow basic rules of physics.

[no advance]

Hopefully they have a plane ready for tomorrow. The system does not look as if it is any hurry to go somewhere.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

gtalum, things change. Also, even if it continues going NW and only clips E Nicaragua, there have been systems that have survived just clipping Nicaragua. Things change, and usually early model runs are incorrect.