TS Aletta,Sat. Images,Comments,Models,Advisories,Etc. Thread

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WindRunner
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#101 Postby WindRunner » Sun May 28, 2006 3:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006

THE SURFACE CENTER OF ALETTA IS OBSCURED AND THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY
RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE CYCLONE. THE CURRENT LOCATION AND
MOTION ARE THEREFORE SUBJECT TO SOME SPECULATION. WHAT LOW CLOUD
LINES THAT ARE VISIBLE ARE ELONGATED AND SUGGESTIVE OF A NORTHEAST/
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS...RATHER THAN A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. NEVERTHELESS...THERE HAS BEEN AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...ALTHOUGH
THE DATA T NUMBERS SUGGEST THIS ESTIMATE MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGH.
OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT LESS SO
THAN EARLIER TODAY.

THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT. THIS MORNING'S MODEL RUNS SHOW
A LITTLE MORE RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE NOGAPS
NO LONGER BRINGS ALETTA TO THE COASTLINE. THE GFDL...HOWEVER...
STILL TAKES ALETTA INLAND NEAR ACAPULCO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR
CONTINUITY AND THE GFDL. ALL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL TAKES ALETTA
WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD SOUTH OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS ABATING
SOMEWHAT...AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER...AND BY 72 HOURS THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY SHEAR MAY AGAIN IMPACT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 15.8N 101.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 16.1N 100.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 16.4N 100.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 16.6N 101.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 16.7N 102.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 16.5N 106.5W 50 KT
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#102 Postby WindRunner » Sun May 28, 2006 3:43 pm

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006

...ALETTA DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WARNING EXTENDED...

AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA
MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO.

AT 2 PM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

ALETTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. AN ERRATIC
BUT GENERALLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...15.8 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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CHRISTY

#103 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 4:28 pm

NHC track from Hurricane Alley 15z...
Image
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#104 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun May 28, 2006 5:07 pm

is it just me or is the nhc and the http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/ep012006.gif graphics not updated?
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#105 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2006 6:53 pm



WTPZ31 KNHC 282328
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006

...ALETTA BARELY MOVING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

ALETTA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. AN ERRATIC
BUT GENERALLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...15.9 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

FORECASTER PASCH




Basiclly no changes from the 2 PM PDT advisorie.
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#106 Postby whereverwx » Sun May 28, 2006 7:18 pm

The blob over Mexico looks better than Aletta right now.

Image Image
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#107 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun May 28, 2006 7:45 pm

Really cause I have to disagree. Even though the blob has more deep convection, Aletta has good banding features, evident circulation, and a nice CDO.
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#108 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2006 7:45 pm


WHXX04 KWBC 282330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA 01E

INITIAL TIME 18Z MAY 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.7 101.1 10./ 1.9
6 15.9 100.9 52./ 3.0
12 15.9 100.8 80./ 1.1
18 15.8 100.7 128./ 1.1
24 15.8 100.5 90./ 1.7
30 16.1 100.6 336./ 2.7
36 16.2 100.7 319./ 1.9
42 16.5 100.9 323./ 3.3
48 16.6 101.2 280./ 2.8
54 16.8 101.6 306./ 4.4
60 16.9 102.1 276./ 5.1
66 16.9 102.3 277./ 1.5
72 17.0 102.6 285./ 3.0
78 17.0 102.6 233./ .5
84 17.1 103.3 279./ 6.4
90 17.0 103.3 172./ .7
96 17.0 103.5 279./ 1.8
102 17.0 103.9 269./ 4.5
108 17.0 103.9 153./ .4
114 16.9 103.9 135./ .6
120 17.1 104.0 320./ 1.7
126 17.8 104.5 321./ 8.8


GFDL keeps Aletta alive for more than 120 hours now and that is a change as they had the storm dissipate in less than 96 hours in past runs.
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#109 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 28, 2006 8:01 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:Really cause I have to disagree. Even though the blob has more deep convection, Aletta has good banding features, evident circulation, and a nice CDO.


I think it was just figurative speech. Of course Aletta is more organized. After all it's a tropical storm and the blob over Mexico, just a blob!!!
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#110 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 28, 2006 8:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:[b]
GFDL keeps Aletta alive for more than 120 hours now and that is a change as they had the storm dissipate in less than 96 hours in past runs.


And continues to move little!!!
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#111 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 8:12 pm

Guys check this out...Let it loop!My guess is might become a hurricane?

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=centam_slp
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#112 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun May 28, 2006 8:15 pm

CHRISTY is that loop of the next possibly named storm?
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#113 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 8:20 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:CHRISTY is that loop of the next possibly named storm?


its crazy right it shows a pretty strong system moving north towards maybe cabo san lucas?
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#114 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 28, 2006 8:44 pm

Image

MODELS AGREE, ALETTA GOES PACIFIC!!!
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#115 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 8:55 pm

looks like she will be moving west...
Last edited by CHRISTY on Sun May 28, 2006 9:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#116 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 9:20 pm

NHC Track from hurricane Alley 21z has ALETTA moving straight west!

Image
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#117 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun May 28, 2006 9:35 pm

CHRISTY wrote:Guys check this out...Let it loop!My guess is might become a hurricane?

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=centam_slp


That's the system behind Aletta, and yes, the GFS has it a pretty potent hurricane in about a week.
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#118 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Sun May 28, 2006 9:37 pm

so is this going east, north or west? lol

if it stays out to sea it may become a hurricane, but in the long term will it curve north again or head toward Baja California?
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#119 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 28, 2006 9:41 pm

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
800 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006

AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER TODAY...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE USING GEOSYNCHRONOUS SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION AND A FAIR CENTER FIX OFF OF A RECENT...0051 UTC... SSM/I
IMAGE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 360/2. DYNAMICAL MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN THE GFDL HAS BACKED OFF FROM ITS
INSISTENT FORECAST OF A LANDFALL IN MEXICO...AND NOW SHOWS A TRACK
PARALLEL TO THE COAST. A GRADUAL LEFT TURN IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTS SHOWING THE BUILDING OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 20N LATITUDE BY 36-48 HOURS.

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS QUITE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT. THERE ARE
NO OBVIOUS BANDING FEATURES...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. I CONSIDERED
DECREASING THE CURRENT INTENSITY...BUT THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY
UNDERGOING THE USUAL DIURNAL DECREASE THAT WE OBSERVE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...HENCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
OVER THE 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALETTA IS LIKELY TO ENTER
A REGION OF STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE SHEAR
COULD INCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT IN 2-3 DAYS...WHICH WOULD INHIBIT
ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE RATHER CLOSELY...HOWEVER THERE IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE INCREASING SHEAR COULD WEAKEN ALETTA MORE THAN
EXPECTED IN 3-5 DAYS.


FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 16.2N 101.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 16.5N 101.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 16.6N 101.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 16.6N 102.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 16.5N 104.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 16.5N 105.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W 45 KT
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#120 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Sun May 28, 2006 9:42 pm

also, where is the real center of this system, inside the convection or to the east of the convection... cuz if you look at a floater loop there seems to be a secondary circulation to the east of the CDO (where presumably the center really is?)
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