00z NAM

#101 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:51 pm

here it is

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... loop.shtml

boca · #102 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:54 pm

SouthFloridawx did youu see the last 2 frames of that.

#103 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:58 pm

boca wrote:SouthFloridawx did youu see the last 2 frames of that.

Ya know I was trying to not notice... but, yeah I did. I want to see a consensus before making any rash decisions. Yes I did see it and yes I'm going to wait for the other 00Z models to come out and see what is really out there.

#104 Postby **feederband** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:59 pm

is the NAM the only one showing this...?

#105 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:59 pm

feederband wrote:is the NAM the only one showing this...?

The canadian model was also show development but, further west into the central gulf.

#106 Postby **feederband** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:00 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
feederband wrote:is the NAM the only one showing this...?

The canadian model was also show development but, further west into the central gulf.

Hmmmmmm.... :idea:

#107 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:05 pm

i'll be back in a little while.. so far the GFS is showing low pressure but, in the EPAC but moving into the yuchatan penn. I am going to wait up for the cmc/nogaps/ukmet and see if they are picking anything up.

#108 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:09 pm

I'm very very surprised to see the rate of development the Nam is indicating...I just can't see this happening but anything is possible these days considering the last 2 yrs

boca · #109 Postby **boca** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:11 pm

I'll guess I'll wait until tomorrow I can't stay awake anymore.

#110 Postby **WxGuy1** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:20 pm

feederband wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
feederband wrote:is the NAM the only one showing this...?

The canadian model was also show development but, further west into the central gulf.

Hmmmmmm....

Don't feel too "hmmm"... The CMC and NAM are probably the two WORST models for forecasting tropical storm genesis and development. I guess I'd take the CMC over the NAM most of the time, but the CMC tends to bomb out tropical storms much too much much of the time it seems. Geez, I might as well post a NGM forecast on here the way some people take a forecast and run with it :lol:

I won't feel much until the GFS, NOGAPS, or UKMET pick up on something.

#111 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:30 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:
feederband wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
feederband wrote:is the NAM the only one showing this...?

The canadian model was also show development but, further west into the central gulf.

Hmmmmmm....

Don't feel too "hmmm"... The CMC and NAM are probably the two WORST models for forecasting tropical storm genesis and development. I guess I'd take the CMC over the NAM most of the time, but the CMC tends to bomb out tropical storms much too much much of the time it seems. Geez, I might as well post a NGM forecast on here the way some people take a forecast and run with it

I won't feel much until the GFS, NOGAPS, or UKMET pick up on something.

You probably weren't around on thursday and friday when GFS was bringing a Tropical Storm/Hurricane through cuba Today and Tomorrow.

spinfan4eva · #112 Postby **spinfan4eva** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:33 pm

OK, I found it!! Here is the NGM forecast for 48 hours out................. Drumroll please!................
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif
From what I cane tell, it appears much as a cold front in the NW caribbean but if that hangs out there as we all know, it needs to be watched! I will continue to monitor the NGM model for the next few days and as always keep ya updated on the storm and how it may affect your AC comfort level--it could get hot in some areas. stay cool! 8-)

CHRISTY · #113 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:45 pm

Hey southfloridawx i just the 00z NAM...still showing a pretty intence system in the caribbean apparently heading NNE towards cuba or florida.Iam sitting just wondering were is the NAM getting all these ideas from?when shear is high all across this area.

Shear loop.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006060518&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

wxmann_91 · #114 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:47 pm

spinfan4eva wrote:OK, I found it!! Here is the NGM forecast for 48 hours out................. Drumroll please!................
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048s.gif
From what I cane tell, it appears much as a cold front in the NW caribbean but if that hangs out there as we all know, it needs to be watched! I will continue to monitor the NGM model for the next few days and as always keep ya updated on the storm and how it may affect your AC comfort level--it could get hot in some areas. stay cool!

You do realize WxGuy1 was joking? :lol:

#115 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:47 pm

CHRISTY wrote:Hey southfloridawx i just the 00z NAM...still showing a pretty intence system in the caribbean apparently heading NNE towards cuba or florida.Iam sitting just wondering were is the NAM getting all these ideas from?when shear is high all across this area.

Shear loop.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006060518&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

Christy as I was checking the upper level winds in the GFS forecast it seems as though as the front moves south east the subtropical jet will pull out with it. But, I'm not 100% certain. I would like to take a look at the rest of the upper levels in the rest of the models.

CHRISTY · #116 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:51 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:Hey southfloridawx i just the 00z NAM...still showing a pretty intence system in the caribbean apparently heading NNE towards cuba or florida.Iam sitting just wondering were is the NAM getting all these ideas from?when shear is high all across this area.

Shear loop.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006060518&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

Christy as I was checking the upper level winds in the GFS forecast it seems as though as the front moves south east the subtropical jet will pull out with it. But, I'm not 100% certain. I would like to take a look at the rest of the upper levels in the rest of the models.

Here's the AVN shear forcast threw thursday...2 words very unfavorable.atleast in the gulf.the caribbean may be a different story.

Link
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

#117 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:01 am

NAM is a terrible model on tropics. May do ok showing development but as far as showing movement, it's a joke. Last year it had Rita hitting south Texas, where all the other models were alot more in line on about where it was heading.

CHRISTY · #118 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:07 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:NAM is a terrible model on tropics. May do ok showing development but as far as showing movement, it's a joke. Last year it had Rita hitting south Texas, where all the other models were alot more in line on about where it was heading.

Thanks for that input...now iam going to bed.The GFS is one of my favorites models.More Fantasy stuff guys get use to it thats all i can say. :wink:

Scorpion · #119 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:13 am

The WRF/NAM has been showing this scenario the past 10 runs easily, and has been trending stronger every run.

Scorpion · #120 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:34 am

The Canadian...just for kicks and giggles.

00z NAM

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