NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (0603)

[whereverwx]

Here are some of the latest visibles:


and it looks like it's eye is contracting.

[Weatherfreak000]

Shear is definitely getting into it.

[whereverwx]

It has great outflow.

[NONAME]

It doesn't look sheared at all weatherfreek

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its about time the western pacific open up with a powerful storm!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The JTWC is forecasting a landfall in southwestern Japan. In maybe it might visit our friend in North Korea?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing is at least 130 knots maybe a little more.


WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.8N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.9N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.1N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.5N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.6N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 37.7N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 130.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z
AND 060300Z.//

NNNN

[Cyclenall]

It doesn't look sheared at all weatherfreek

I agree, I see no shear and if there is shear, then it's not doing anything at all.

The JTWC is forecasting a landfall in southwestern Japan. In maybe it might visit our friend in North Korea?

I was thinking that as well! Does North Korea get Typhoons very often?

This thing is at least 130 knots maybe a little more.

I would say that too. It looked like a 135 Knot typhoon this morning but without Recon we don't know for sure.

Right now it looks the same as it did 6 hours ago. The eye looks different every 2.5 hours it seems.

[CHRISTY]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 921.2mb/124.6kt

[HURAKAN]

05/0233 UTC 18.1N 130.4E T7.0/7.0 EWINIAR -- West Pacific Ocean

[whereverwx]

OK, this is something that I wondered, and it will probably be beneficial to some of you; the correct pronunciation of "Ewiniar" is "EE-win-yar."

Also... I'm not sure what source this is using, but it says it's now a super typhoon.

[dwsqos2]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 18.1N 130.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 250NM
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 19.5N 129.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
45HF 070000UTC 21.5N 129.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
69HF 080000UTC 24.3N 129.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 18.2N 130.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 250NM
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 20.0N 128.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 070600UTC 21.5N 128.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 080600UTC 24.4N 127.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT

[Cyclenall]

I'm looking at this typhoon right now and now it looks like a ERC is taking place. I'm not totally sure on that but it's eye isn't clear right now and the typhoon overall looks more circular then before. I wonder what's going to happen next.

[James]

Not looking quite so good at the moment, the inner core seems quite disrupted, and the storm seems to be taking on a somewhat "squashed" appearance. If that makes sense.

[HURAKAN]

This is an old image but look how good did it get to look!!!

[P.K.]

Down to 90kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 18.5N 129.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 250NM
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 20.2N 128.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 071200UTC 22.1N 127.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
72HF 081200UTC 25.0N 127.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT

[skysummit]

Advisory #23 Forecast Wind Swath:

[Cyclenall]

So did it go through a ERC or did it just do nothing and look worse on us?

[P.K.]

85kts

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 18.8N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 250NM
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 20.1N 128.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 071800UTC 22.8N 127.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 081800UTC 26.8N 126.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT