Thanks wxman. I did not notice the time stamp of 21:57(4:57 pm) so you're right, yesterday afternoon.(Not sure why they show 12 July @ 13:42 UTC though?
Bvigal,
I couldn't get the darn thing to load until just a bit ago either?
Ex-96L Invest,Comments
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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mvtrucking
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wxman57
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mvtrucking wrote:Thanks wxman. I did not notice the time stamp of 21:57(4:57 pm) so you're right, yesterday afternoon.(Not sure why they show 12 July @ 13:42 UTC though?
Bvigal,
I couldn't get the darn thing to load until just a bit ago either?
The time at the top of the page is when the web page, itself, was updated. Image times are in purple at the bottom of each image. Can be confusing.
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wxman57
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Here's a new plot. Barbados winds up near 20 kts, but still from due east:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Lb.gif
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594
WHXX01 KWBC 121452
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060712 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060712 1200 060713 0000 060713 1200 060714 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 57.5W 13.0N 59.6W 13.8N 61.7W 14.7N 63.6W
BAMM 12.3N 57.5W 13.2N 60.3W 14.1N 63.1W 15.0N 65.8W
A98E 12.3N 57.5W 12.4N 60.5W 13.0N 63.3W 13.9N 65.7W
LBAR 12.3N 57.5W 12.7N 60.5W 13.5N 63.5W 14.3N 66.4W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060714 1200 060715 1200 060716 1200 060717 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 65.3W 17.3N 68.3W 17.8N 71.8W 17.7N 76.4W
BAMM 15.9N 68.5W 17.5N 73.6W 18.6N 78.8W 19.5N 83.8W
A98E 14.8N 67.8W 16.9N 72.0W 18.9N 75.9W 21.3N 79.8W
LBAR 15.0N 69.2W 17.2N 74.0W 19.3N 78.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 41KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 57.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 54.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 51.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 121452
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060712 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060712 1200 060713 0000 060713 1200 060714 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 57.5W 13.0N 59.6W 13.8N 61.7W 14.7N 63.6W
BAMM 12.3N 57.5W 13.2N 60.3W 14.1N 63.1W 15.0N 65.8W
A98E 12.3N 57.5W 12.4N 60.5W 13.0N 63.3W 13.9N 65.7W
LBAR 12.3N 57.5W 12.7N 60.5W 13.5N 63.5W 14.3N 66.4W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060714 1200 060715 1200 060716 1200 060717 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 65.3W 17.3N 68.3W 17.8N 71.8W 17.7N 76.4W
BAMM 15.9N 68.5W 17.5N 73.6W 18.6N 78.8W 19.5N 83.8W
A98E 14.8N 67.8W 16.9N 72.0W 18.9N 75.9W 21.3N 79.8W
LBAR 15.0N 69.2W 17.2N 74.0W 19.3N 78.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 41KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 57.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 54.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 51.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Extremeweatherguy
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Stormcenter
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drezee wrote:594
WHXX01 KWBC 121452
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060712 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060712 1200 060713 0000 060713 1200 060714 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 57.5W 13.0N 59.6W 13.8N 61.7W 14.7N 63.6W
BAMM 12.3N 57.5W 13.2N 60.3W 14.1N 63.1W 15.0N 65.8W
A98E 12.3N 57.5W 12.4N 60.5W 13.0N 63.3W 13.9N 65.7W
LBAR 12.3N 57.5W 12.7N 60.5W 13.5N 63.5W 14.3N 66.4W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060714 1200 060715 1200 060716 1200 060717 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 65.3W 17.3N 68.3W 17.8N 71.8W 17.7N 76.4W
BAMM 15.9N 68.5W 17.5N 73.6W 18.6N 78.8W 19.5N 83.8W
A98E 14.8N 67.8W 16.9N 72.0W 18.9N 75.9W 21.3N 79.8W
LBAR 15.0N 69.2W 17.2N 74.0W 19.3N 78.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 41KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 57.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 54.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 51.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Can someone please plot this on a tracking map?
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Scorpion
278
ABNT20 KNHC 121501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
ABNT20 KNHC 121501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Stormcenter
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skysummit
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 121500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 12 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-042
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL INVEST NEAR 15N AND 69W
FOR 14/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW
NOUS42 KNHC 121500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 12 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-042
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL INVEST NEAR 15N AND 69W
FOR 14/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW
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HurricaneHunter914
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
Looking Good! I think when the NHC say Upper level Winds are only marginal for development and pressures are falling slowly that means chances for development are growing?
Looking Good! I think when the NHC say Upper level Winds are only marginal for development and pressures are falling slowly that means chances for development are growing?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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brunota2003
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Like this, from Dr. Jeff Masters:
A tropical wave about 150 miles east of Barbados has become better organized this morning. A sudden burst of intense thunderstorms developed between 6am and 10am EDT, and a surface circulation is now apparent near 12.5N 57W on visible satellite imagery. The center is exposed on the west side due to strong upper-level winds from the west, and the latest 8am EDT winds shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin showed wind shear of 10-20 knots over the disturbance. Weaker upper-level winds just to the disturbance's south have pushed northwards, creating an opportunity for the system to develop. (The University of Wisconsin wind shear product is updated every three hours, and the 11am EDT analysis is due out around 1 pm EDT).
The system is moving west at 15 mph, and should bring heavy rain and wind gusts of 30-40 mph to Barbados this afternoon and St. Vincent and St. Lucia tonight. It will be very interesting to see what the wind and pressure readings look like from these islands today. It's possible that this system will become a tropical depression later today, but I doubt that it will make it to tropical storm status, despite its healthier appearance on satellite imagery this morning. The area covered by intense thunderstorms is very small, and it would take only a modest increase in wind shear to tear the system apart. There's plenty of wind shear to the system's north and west, and the chances of it surviving beyond Thursday are low.
Source: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200607
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