Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Cyclenall · #101 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:02 pm

skysummit wrote:
rockyman wrote:Dr Steve Lyons just said this "could be a tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow"...

LOL...leave it to TWC! That's probably because no one at TWC is logged onto S2K right now.

It's probably because he didn't have time to check the NRL site.

Extremeweatherguy · #102 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:04 pm

kenl01 wrote:I don't see that much excitement with this system. Besides, likely it will remain a depression for quite some time as it encounters more shear during the next 96 hours. I don't expect too much out of it. Too many factors working against it.
But I guess it's better than nothing after a quiet season so far.............

You also didn't think this had a chance yesterday and look what happened. Also, there will probably lessening shear over the next 96 hrs, not increasing shear.

Website · #103 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:05 pm

ncdowneast wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:were the oo:ooz models run with this being a depression or closed low or still as a wave! if these model runs were intialized with a wave what might the next runs look like? Would love for there to be abreak in ridge around 65W so that it would turn north and fish!

Relax man..No fish likely here..Soon as it crosses the Antillies its no longer a fish...Besides that Looks like this will be a Mountain Storm..Live or die?

die if it goes over the mountains but my point is that if the models were intialized as a wave then there may be a more northward model run next time thus missing the islands and hopefully it would then go fishing..

No, it was initialized as a TD. The 0z models called it that... It's not going to be a fish.

Josephine96 · #104 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:06 pm

Bring on #3 to the tracking tropics scene.. :lol:

After 2005, I felt like I was spoiled so now I feel like I'm not getting enough tropical activity

BTW: When I saw the S2k infrared satellite on the homepage.. I took 1 look at it and couldn't believe it wasn't #3/Chris yet.

greels · #105 Postby **greels** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:06 pm

caribepr wrote:
benny wrote:
caribepr wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I think that these hollers are not a big problem to these threads. Its not like we are saying we want this to hit anybody, we're just celebrating the fact that this wave has finally become a TD.

It will save a hell of a lot of hurt and grow you up some. Two not so bad things...YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

It is the whole censorship versus free speech concept. YAHOOOO doesn't say much to me. It doesn't say anything. Why is anyone reading this board if they hate storms? I haven't seen anyone make an offensive statement like "Oh I want this to cream so and so". That is bad. FINALLLLY is... nothing. We all need to lighten up IMHO.

Laughing here...pick a debate with merit. This is NOT about free speech versus censorship. This is about awareness outside of one's own chosen area of interest, to the reality of the consequences of that interest in full development and impact. It might be termed *mature thoughtfulness*.
1. I read this board and have done so for three years.
2. I do not hate storms, they are one of Nature's most glorious shows.
3. I have seen and experienced major damage from storms/hurricanes (include death) both personally, as well as for loved ones, as well as for complete strangers that rips me up.
4. I read this board as I live in on a very small island that storms can affect severely even if minor, for good information from well-informed sources, because the information can impact my life and the lives of many I care about, where I live, as well as in the other islands and in the states.
5. I'll lighten up when no storm hurts anybody anywhere. In other words, as to severe weather, I'll never lighten up. Even though in every day life, I am Life Lite.
6. Grow up. Deal with ALL of the realities of your interest.
7. I don't have a humble opinion on this subject. I'm right. PHHHHTTTTTT

ack! sorry snrpepper! ok, I sure hope this system goes fish! I'm back on track now!

I am not about to beat a dead horse, but please have some respect for folks who live in the islands. I am currently a newbie to this site, but come here to find current weather information that we are unable to receive here.

We are a small island of 14 or so miles, so naturally, any weather event at this time of year is bound to concern us.

Thank you.

shaggy · #106 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:06 pm

well if its not going to be a fish lets hope accuweathers highest risk areas are left alone!!!!

wxmann_91 · #107 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:08 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:
Where are all the naysayers now? And you know who I mean....

And I don't believe this will attain anything beyond TS status, if it even makes it that far.

I'm surprised you can this with so much confidence. I haven't looked at the models or conditions yet myself, but there's plenty of time for the bad conditions to improve and thus improve the chances of this potential storm intensifying...I can't even count how many times last year many of us didn't think a particular depression or wave would develop, only to wake up the next morning and realize how wrong we were.

I'm not saying it will develop into anything other than a storm, just saying that there's always that chance this time of year.

That's my opinion and I should've put at least one type of disclaimer. There are two MAJOR variables...

1) LAND
2) TUTT

The land will no doubt kill the system. The TUTT can too, or it can make #3 a major. IMO, the TUTT and/or land will kill #3, as many of the Globals were showing. However, I will give another scenario, which is the TUTT moves away and lands in a favorable position to enhance outflow, which will spell trouble. But, this scenario, IMO, is pretty unlikely.

#108 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:10 pm

Right now I don't see all that much shear, at least not enough to keep it from steadily deepening. I remember a very sheared Hurricane Earl in the Gulf in 98 that was in alot worse conditions than this and reached 110mph. I think the dry air was its problem and it has overcome that hindrance.

#109 Postby **btangy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:11 pm

I can't even count how many times last year many of us didn't think a particular depression or wave would develop, only to wake up the next morning and realize how wrong we were.

Well, that was last year where pretty much everything developed. But, you can say the opposite as well... how many times have we thought something would develop, and it didn't (in previous years). I'm certainly guilty of this. Tropical cyclogenesis is a very tricky subject. The best of researchers and forecasters don't understand the fundamentals of this process, so more often than not, forecasting it is a roll of the dice.

Extremeweatherguy · #110 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:12 pm

NHC forecast #1 should be out within the next 45 minutes.

duris · #111 Postby **duris** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:13 pm

I'm a little sensitive after our damage from Katrina but understand the gist of people's interest, as insensitive as some posts DO appear, but what are you gonna do? I'm just glad that I can sift through the debris (pun intended) to get real info.

Grease Monkey · #112 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:13 pm

That's what makes tracking these storms more exciting. It's unpredictable. It's not stuck in the matrix. :cheesy:

Josephine96 · #113 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:13 pm

Is the Bermuda high going to keep #3 south or slowly pushing towards the Southeast? I know it's WAY TOO EARLY to tell but I'm kinda curious.

Just no ts/hurricanes on 8/6 or 8/7 please lol.. I'll be in Tampa to see the American Idols in concert this weekend lol..

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #114 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:13 pm

Could anyone tell my untrained eye where the center of TD3 is?

Is it under to convection?

Website · #115 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:14 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:Could anyone tell my untrained eye where the center of TD3 is?

Is it under to convection?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir2.jpg

It's near the NW edge of it... near that curl.

Regit · #116 Postby **Regit** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:15 pm

I don't want to bother drawing on the image, but I'd say on the left of the convection, about a tenth of the way across.

Does that make sense? :lol:

#117 Postby **Bailey1777** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:16 pm

When they officially classify it they will have to put out their 5 day projection right?

#118 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:16 pm

Brent wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:Could anyone tell my untrained eye where the center of TD3 is?

Is it under to convection?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir2.jpg

It's near the NW edge of it... near that curl.

Could that curl possibly mean that *gulp* thunderstorms could be wrapping around the center? I.E. the system is getting better organized, or is this just temporary?

-Andrew92

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #119 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:16 pm

Brent wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:Could anyone tell my untrained eye where the center of TD3 is?

Is it under to convection?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir2.jpg

It's near the NW edge of it... near that curl.

Ah, okay. Thanks!!!

Website · #120 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:17 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:When they officially classify it they will have to put out their 5 day projection right?

Yes. Advisories at 11pm, 5am, 11am, 5pm will have those.

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