Where will Chris go?

[dwg71]

there is no region of the Gulf Coast that can assume Chris will miss them.

I disagree. The central Florida west coast is safe. This would have to take a hard right hand turn to hit us. The only thing that is possible is if it were to cross the state and come out in the GOM. The way the models have been behaving with the weakness, This is possible. Not likely though.

Technically All of Fl penisula is Atlantic Coast. I believe Gulf Coast refers to area around the bend in FL all the way to Brownsville.

[Rainband]

there is no region of the Gulf Coast that can assume Chris will miss them.

I disagree. The central Florida west coast is safe. This would have to take a hard right hand turn to hit us. The only thing that is possible is if it were to cross the state and come out in the GOM. The way the models have been behaving with the weakness, This is possible. Not likely though.

Technically All of Fl penisula is Atlantic Coast. I believe Gulf Coast refers to area around the bend in FL all the way to Brownsville.

when I go to the beach I step into the Gulf. I think that makes no sense Yes the east side should be called the atlantic coast but we are on the GOM

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

[Extremeweatherguy]

this looks really bad for TX. I just hope this storm does not grow in size to become as large as Rita or Katrina or Wilma. That kind of storm would likely devastate the entire TX coast.

[dwg71]

"entire texas coast" - that would be the worlds largest hurricane to devastate a coast line of that size.

[Extremeweatherguy]

"entire texas coast" - that would be the worlds largest hurricane to devastate a coast line of that size.

Ok, may be I should have said "most" of the TX coast. Still though, I doubt this storm will reach the size of those hurricanes (but still you never know..)

[x-y-no]

12Z run of the GFS is still completely on crack.


My advice to everyone is ignore the models and go with synoptic reasoning. No model based on the GFS grid is going to be worth anything.

[HouTXmetro]

Based on that track it's going through the heart of the loop current...


Not time to panic yet but I'm close to it.

[MiamiensisWx]

This loop may shed some light. The ULL appears to be retrograding west-southwestward a bit quicker now on the loop. The ULL is now also more shallow and with less influence on the surrounding environment. This could gradually allow for shear ahead of Chris to slowly decrease.

[Air Force Met]

12Z run of the GFS is still completely on crack.


My advice to everyone is ignore the models and go with synoptic reasoning. No model based on the GFS grid is going to be worth anything.

That's exactly what you have to do. Throwing out the models because they don't pick up on the system is foolsih. They have a good handle on what is happening synoptically and on that scale they are all going for a big ridge over the SE US.

Chris could pull a Gilbert (as far as track) and once it gets around 22/70...it might take a 280 heading and ride the ridge the rest of the way to land like Gilbert did.

Talk amongst yourslves.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

12Z run of the GFS is still completely on crack.


My advice to everyone is ignore the models and go with synoptic reasoning. No model based on the GFS grid is going to be worth anything.

That's exactly what you have to do. Throwing out the models because they don't pick up on the system is foolsih. They have a good handle on what is happening synoptically and on that scale they are all going for a big ridge over the SE US.

Chris could pull a Gilbert (as far as track) and once it gets around 22/70...it might take a 280 heading and ride the ridge the rest of the way to land like Gilbert did.

Talk amongst yourslves.

And Gilbert went into Mexico.

[LSU2001]

12Z run of the GFS is still completely on crack.


My advice to everyone is ignore the models and go with synoptic reasoning. No model based on the GFS grid is going to be worth anything.

That's exactly what you have to do. Throwing out the models because they don't pick up on the system is foolsih. They have a good handle on what is happening synoptically and on that scale they are all going for a big ridge over the SE US.

Chris could pull a Gilbert (as far as track) and once it gets around 22/70...it might take a 280 heading and ride the ridge the rest of the way to land like Gilbert did.

Talk amongst yourslves.

THat track would be just fine for me!!!!!!!. I do find it hard to believe that it would do that but only based on history not the current set up. I have no idea how to read the current synoptics so I cant even hazard a guess
Tim

[Rainband]

Well based on history only one storm made it into the GOM, so anything is possible.

[Air Force Met]

And Gilbert went into Mexico.

And Gilbert was 4 degrees further south than Chris is now.

[StormWarning1]

Here is the 12Z GFS, doesn't do much with Chris after 48 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[HouTXmetro]

12Z run of the GFS is still completely on crack.


My advice to everyone is ignore the models and go with synoptic reasoning. No model based on the GFS grid is going to be worth anything.

That's exactly what you have to do. Throwing out the models because they don't pick up on the system is foolsih. They have a good handle on what is happening synoptically and on that scale they are all going for a big ridge over the SE US.

Chris could pull a Gilbert (as far as track) and once it gets around 22/70...it might take a 280 heading and ride the ridge the rest of the way to land like Gilbert did.

Talk amongst yourslves.

AFM what is your thinking today on the track? I'm sure Gilbert like track is possible but what do you feel is most likely to happen?

[floridahurricaneguy]

i started studying and reading the models last summer. GFS and NAM. What are the best upper level maps to be looking at for the strength of the ridge and what again i am looking for. I know generally what to look at but definitely not an expert here

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I'll throw my 2 cents in. After looking at all the new model data (upper air and all) i say the middle to lower Texas coast.

[Steve]

Almost none of the globals have handled Chris that well. I'm sure the experts will fill us in after they have reviewed the data if Chris doesn't dissipate as so many of the big boy models are calling for. It's kind of weird, almost like Chris isn't supposed to be where he is right now. I think the NHC's take is pretty good at 11am, so I'm sticking with their call for now. Prior to maturity, I find it pretty tough to forecast a track because you have reorganizations and such that can mean a world of difference 5-7 days out. I've got an eye peeled on Chris, but there ain't nothing I or anyone else can do about it now. If necessary, I'll buy a few gallons of water on Saturday and dust off the MRE's we have left over from last year.

As for Masters, it's kind of ironic (well maybe not technically ironic but...) that he just posted that writeup yesterday calling for a "below average" hurricane risk in the Gulf of Mexico this year.

As for Bastardi, he's on record with Texas action (potentially an IH) "later this year" as it is, so he's gonna stick with that for the next few days I'm sure. As Greg pointed out yesterday, his initial focus is on Galveston - but that obviously is subject to change eventually if he learned his lesson from Hurricane Rita last year.

Steve

[dwg71]

I'll throw my 2 cents in. After looking at all the new model data (upper air and all) i say the middle to lower Texas coast.

Thats a long throw I will wait to pass judgement on long term (5+ days) until we see what he does in the next 48 hours. IMO it appears to be more north of WNW still. Wont know for sure until we get recon though. I would no rule out a SE FL to panhandle track. CLimo for what its worth says east coast, but climo is climo...