Hurricane Ileana in EPAC Thread

[miamicanes177]

didnt the NHC say that if it were strong enough it would move north?

[Cyclenall]

Ok I'm lossing it that was for LOKE. This has a 74 knots...I believe its up to around 80 knots now. In this should be a major in 24 hours.

Oh thanks! . And you must be losing it since there is no tropical cyclone named "Loke" in any basin currently. You must mean Ioke. 80 knots is still impressive though.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ILEANA (EP102006) ON 20060823 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060823 0000 060823 1200 060824 0000 060824 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 108.6W 17.6N 110.9W 18.8N 113.4W 19.7N 115.7W
BAMM 16.2N 108.6W 17.6N 111.1W 19.0N 113.7W 20.0N 116.1W
LBAR 16.2N 108.6W 17.6N 111.2W 19.3N 113.9W 20.8N 116.5W
SHIP 75KTS 90KTS 99KTS 102KTS
DSHP 75KTS 90KTS 99KTS 102KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060825 0000 060826 0000 060827 0000 060828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.4N 117.8W 21.2N 121.7W 22.1N 125.3W 22.3N 128.4W
BAMM 20.8N 118.1W 21.7N 121.4W 22.6N 124.1W 22.9N 126.2W
LBAR 22.1N 118.6W 24.9N 120.8W 27.6N 119.5W 31.4N 117.8W
SHIP 98KTS 80KTS 62KTS 48KTS
DSHP 98KTS 80KTS 62KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 108.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 106.1W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 103.9W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 130NM RD34SW = 110NM RD34NW = 110NM


Ship goes up to 102 kts.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LBAR track is interesting....

[Cyclenall]

Is this hurricane really 75 knots now?

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t8/avn-l.jpg

Tiny eye forming which means a powerful hurricane brewing. The red is almost totally around and some black in there too .

EDIT: Next frame shows a little bigger eye then the other frame. Things change too fast!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say about 90 knots now...This sucker is going to become a cat3 by 2am. I think it will become a cat4 with 125 knot winds by 36 hours. The lbar shows it going up that stipe of less stratocu. I'v named it the heat zone. Which means the most faverable zone to hold a cyclone together into califorina. If this can go at least 15 to 20 mph up it. In fellow the Lbar then this might be something for Califorina to watch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

[Scorpion]

Wow this thing really just blew up. Looks amazing. Could it surpass Daniel?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe...If it fellows the Lbar track in doe's so then southern California might get a something worth speaking of for years to come.

[whereverwx]

Wow, this is an excellent shot of her.

[NetZeroZeus]

Meh, in that shot my house is being covered by the outer circulation of the hurricane, no wonder I got a thunderstorm here that just stopped raining, Puerto Vallarta here by the way,

[LAwxrgal]

She is getting her act together quickly. The forming eye is definitely visible on that pic. Outflow is good in all quadrants.

[bombarderoazul]

She looks good on satellite.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This had a chance for greatness but the new forecast shows this cane going more westward. I wented it to head up the zone...In give me some stormy weather.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Gfdl 18z shows some promise.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

If it becomes a cat4 in can move ast 12 to 15 mph to the north...Then It might make farther north then this with 50 to 55 knot winds.

[cycloneye]

490
WTPZ45 KNHC 230255
TCDEP5
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006

VISIBLE AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT ILEANA HAS
DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED 30 NMI EYE THIS EVENING...WITH THE EYE WALL
NOW COMPLETELY CLOSED OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA...77
KT FROM TAFB...AND A 77 KT 6 HOUR AVG FROM THE CIMSS ADT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNTOUCHED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR
AN INCREASE TO 90 KT IN 12 HOURS BASED OFF OF A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND THE GFDL MODELS...AND THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE
CORE STRUCTURE AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...AS ILEANA MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/14. THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ILEANA...WITH A MOTION
MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE SHALLOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM MEXICO. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOLUTION
SUGGESTING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...TOWARD A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.
AFTERWARD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...WHICH CONTINUES TO
SHOW A TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS...LARGE SCALE MODELS
INDICATE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A REDUCTION
IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 16.6N 109.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 17.6N 110.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 19.0N 113.1W 100 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 20.7N 116.4W 90 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 22.0N 118.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 122.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Come one weakness form big time!

[Stratosphere747]

Maybe...If it fellows the Lbar track in doe's so then southern California might get a something worth speaking of for years to come.

You do realize that any significant tropical storm hitting Southern California would possibly exceed Allison not only in monetary damages, but would most certainly do so with regards to loss of life, caused by flooding, leading to major mudslides.

Nowhere close to Central America and the Caribbean, but devasting enough...

Or do you even care?

[whereverwx]

Wow! Very impressive!

[wxmann_91]

Maybe...If it fellows the Lbar track in doe's so then southern California might get a something worth speaking of for years to come.

You do realize that any significant tropical storm hitting Southern California would possibly exceed Allison not only in monetary damages, but would most certainly do so with regards to loss of life, caused by flooding, leading to major mudslides.

Nowhere close to Central America and the Caribbean, but devasting enough...

Or do you even care?

First of all Matt, the LBAR is on crack as usual. There's a better chance of me winning the lottery.

Good thing is though, the likelihood (even if LBAR turns out to be true) of it making landfall at hurricane strength are nearly zero. However, given we SoCalians aren't use to the wind, even TS force winds can and will do quite a bit of damage here.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You people think we don't get hit with strong storms, likes its just light rain and sun alll the time. Not really durning the winter we have 3 or 4 50 to 70 mph wind storms...With maybe 100 mph+ once a year. Inland we can get 40 to 50 2 or more times a winter. With heavy rain. 1962 we seen some winds of 130 mph on the coast(At least in a book a read about it) Over 100 to 110 where I live. 2002 in Feb we saw a storm go through the south valley that had 70+...Which blown roofs off hundreds of houses in trees down every where.

Southern Californina in 1982-1983 they got some powerful storms...Also in 1997,1998 they got some of the worst storms in over 100 plus years. If this hits Southern Califorina in moves into Oregon. I'm going to get my rain stuff on in going out side.