Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

[Cyclenall]

My estimated chance:

Tropical Depression - 90%
Tropical Storm - 80%
Hurricane - 70%
Category 2 Hurricane - 60%
Category 3 Hurricane - 55%
Category 4 Hurricane - 35%
Category 5 Hurricane - 25%

Some of those % are too high. 25% of becoming a CAT5 is way off IMO.

Here's mine:

First % chance of Invest 97L becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 88%
Tropical Storm: 79%
Hurricane: 60%
Category 2 Hurricane: 40% (could go higher)
Category 3 Hurricane: 15%
Category 4 Hurricane: 5% (could go much higher if this goes into the GOM)
Category 5 Hurricane: 1% (could go much higher if this goes into the GOM)

[Beam]

My estimated chance:

Tropical Depression - 90%
Tropical Storm - 80%
Hurricane - 70%
Category 2 Hurricane - 60%
Category 3 Hurricane - 55%
Category 4 Hurricane - 35%
Category 5 Hurricane - 25%

Some of those % are too high. 25% of becoming a CAT5 is way off IMO.

Here's mine:

First % chance of Invest 97L becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 88%
Tropical Storm: 79%
Hurricane: 60%
Category 2 Hurricane: 40% (could go higher)
Category 3 Hurricane: 15%
Category 4 Hurricane: 5% (could go much higher if this goes into the GOM)
Category 5 Hurricane: 1% (could go much higher if this goes into the GOM)

That's much more reasonable.

[Derek Ortt]

much better chanc eof a strong hurricane in the NW Caribbean than the GOM

[cycloneye]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41101

Some pressure falls at this bouy 41101 located east of Martinique but maybe is the usual afternoon cycle.

[ROCK]

much better chanc eof a strong hurricane in the NW Caribbean than the GOM

is that b/c of heat content or upper level winds in the GOM?

[Damar91]

Looking at latest sat, it looks like it is starting to tighten up.

[tropicsPR]

much better chanc eof a strong hurricane in the NW Caribbean than the GOM

Mr. Ortt, do you expect Invest 97 to develop into a tropical storm in the eastern caribbean? south of Puerto Rico?

[skysummit]

yea, new t-storms forming right around the center....or supposedly where a center could be.

[Trugunzn]

much better chanc eof a strong hurricane in the NW Caribbean than the GOM

is that b/c of heat content or upper level winds in the GOM?

Heat content is define better then GOM but not sure about upper level winds

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Sorry, I haven't been able to keep up to date on this system.. I've had school and yada yada.

Where is it exactly?

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Sorry, I haven't been able to keep up to date on this system.. I've had school and yada yada.

Where is it exactly?

Nevermind!

[ROCK]

much better chanc eof a strong hurricane in the NW Caribbean than the GOM

is that b/c of heat content or upper level winds in the GOM?

both

I can believe the shear part of it..but heat content?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Derek Ortt]

its the heat content

[Trugunzn]

Heat content better in carribean:

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blogs/weather/

I am somewhat concerned about this system, especially given the 18Z intensity guidance which was calling for a cat 2, and not just the ordinary SHIPS

[jasons2k]

There's still plenty of heat content on the Gulf to maintain a strong system.

[LAwxrgal]

The waters near Cuba and Jamaica are some of the hottest and deepest in the entire basin. These are the waters where Ivan and Wilma exploded....

[cajungal]

Just read the the blog that Derek put out. And it said early indications are that it well pass well west of Pensacola. But, a lot can change between now and then. Gulf Coast will have to monitor this possible developing system.

[Trugunzn]

The waters near Cuba and Jamaica are some of the hottest and deepest in the entire basin. These are the waters where Ivan and Wilma exploded....

yep it was amazon wilma did! tropical storm to category 5 in one day!!

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blogs/weather/

I am somewhat concerned about this system, especially given the 18Z intensity guidance which was calling for a cat 2, and not just the ordinary SHIPS

Derek I do not believe I have yet to see you be concerned at anything so far this season.