Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[LAwxrgal]

Here's a satellite witha surface plot. No evidence of an LLC:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby17.gif

Yep and it certainly doesn't look as good as last night. Wonder if it will just be a strong wave going through the Caribbean and we'll have to wait until it gets out of the eastern caribbean graveyard.

the story of this season...

I agree, it doesn't look nearly as good as last night. What's so upsetting about this not forming? Nobody on the Gulf coast (including Mexico) needs another tropical system and nobody needs anything more in the Gulf, as was already mentioned, prices have just started to go down at the pump. I would be thrilled if this went the route of the others this year and just dissipates.

[Sanibel]

The best way to put it is 2006, South America, and the Caribbean are getting it upon arrival. There's obvious shear just out ahead of it.

Can only watch to see if it rebounds and strengthens in the Caribbean or becomes yet another 2006 ghost storm.

This one is weird because the center appears to be in between the two convective features.

[cpdaman]

well on the bright side, even if this wave doesn't develop it did set a record

were already into the 3'rd thread on an INVEST which shows just how much people are licking there chops waiting for something to develop

[ConvergenceZone]

As long it continues to move over 20 mph,it wont be a fast developer.I think developemt will wait until it reaches the Western Caribbean.

Yea, I'm starting to agree with ya, which means we may have a depression in about 3 or 4 days.

[tailgater]

The Tobago ob really throw it off, Thunder44 . . . here's a little picture with those obs plotted - click to enlarge . . .

That little pic is wrong Tabago is southeast of Grenda.
http://www.joetourist.ca/caribbean/grap ... ribmap.gif

[bvigal]

Our gasoline has been up to $4.50, and is $3.90 right now, and gasoline runs our power plant generators, so electricity is off the map! The speculators are no doubt making US gas prices higher. So, I hope today they find 97 has busted! This system may turn out to be nothing, but I don't think the GOM can avoid something this hurricane season - that would be to much to hope for!!

[Stormcenter]

Here's a satellite witha surface plot. No evidence of an LLC:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby17.gif

Yep and it certainly doesn't look as good as last night. Wonder if it will just be a strong wave going through the Caribbean and we'll have to wait until it gets out of the eastern caribbean graveyard.

the story of this season...

I agree, it doesn't look nearly as good as last night. What's so upsetting about this not forming? Nobody on the Gulf coast (including Mexico) needs another tropical system and nobody needs anything more in the Gulf, as was already mentioned, prices have just started to go down at the pump. I would be thrilled if this went the route of the others this year and just dissipates.

The post of the day so far. I hope 97L never gets it's act together. Anyway,some of the models (like with Chris) obviously see something no one else does and are not jumping on the developmental bandwagon just yet.

[ConvergenceZone]

The best way to put it is 2006, South America, and the Caribbean are getting it upon arrival. There's obvious shear just out ahead of it.

Can only watch to see if it rebounds and strengthens in the Caribbean or becomes yet another 2006 ghost storm.

This one is weird because the center appears to be in between the two convective features.

Yep, wow, what a difference a day makes. Last night at this time we were talking about a potential strong storm and today, we are doubtful if it even makes it to a depression...oh well, hopefully the strong way coming off Africa will turn into something, but I'm not even putting my hopes in that anymore or anything for that matter.

[drezee]

The best way to put it is 2006, South America, and the Caribbean are getting it upon arrival. There's obvious shear just out ahead of it.

Can only watch to see if it rebounds and strengthens in the Caribbean or becomes yet another 2006 ghost storm.

This one is weird because the center appears to be in between the two convective features.

Yep, wow, what a difference a day makes. Last night at this time we were talking about a potential strong storm and today, we are doubtful if it even makes it to a depression...oh well, hopefully the strong way coming off Africa will turn into something, but I'm not even putting my hopes in that anymore or anything for that matter.

Let's not be mistaken, I feel that when Recon reaches this system it will be classified this afternoon. It has improved in organization each day and is ready to go. I honestly believe this has the chance to be a hurricane in the coming days.

[miamicanes177]

Yep, wow, what a difference a day makes. Last night at this time we were talking about a potential strong storm and today, we are doubtful if it even makes it to a depression...oh well, hopefully the strong way coming off Africa will turn into something, but I'm not even putting my hopes in that anymore or anything for that matter.

who is doubtful it will be a depression? Listen to Dr. Steve Lyons and the NHC. Both are very concerned. Recon will see if it has a LLC. That is all that matters right now. Proof.

[Sanibel]

20 mph storms sometimes suspend their energy until they reach further west in the Caribbean. However 2006 is not showing any special development quality to the west Caribbean.

Our gasoline has been up to $4.50, and is $3.90 right now, and gasoline runs our power plant generators, so electricity is off the map! The speculators are no doubt making US gas prices higher.

Sounds like you are in cost-efficiency range for photovoltaic solar panels. (If you can keep them from blowing away) Your power plants more likely run off of South American oil or diesel.

[Blown Away]

[quote="bostonseminole"][quote="Thunder44"][quote="Matt-hurricanewatcher"]I can now see a west wind now...The center looks to be around 11 north/57.5. Deep convection is right over it. It keeps developing stronger. I see the lower level clouds moving like this...We will see once we get a recon or it moves over the islands.


Closer to or just shy of 12/60, IMO! Starting fire a little near that location.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, wow, what a difference a day makes. Last night at this time we were talking about a potential strong storm and today, we are doubtful if it even makes it to a depression...oh well, hopefully the strong way coming off Africa will turn into something, but I'm not even putting my hopes in that anymore or anything for that matter.

who is doubtful it will be a depression? Listen to Dr. Steve Lyons and the NHC. Both are very concerned. Recon will see if it has a LLC. That is all that matters right now. Proof.

Well, I guess it's just because I thought it would look sooo much better this morning, but I'm concerned about the speed of it. How does it suppose to develop when it's moving THAT fast?

[Blown Away]

I can now see a west wind now...The center looks to be around 11 north/57.5. Deep convection is right over it. It keeps developing stronger. I see the lower level clouds moving like this...We will see once we get a recon or it moves over the islands.

Closer to or just shy of 12/60, IMO! Starting fire a little near that location.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[DROliver]

This system is looking bad and we can only be thankful for that.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

The models trend more west and it looks like the GFDL loses 97L @60hours

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... re&hour=60

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif

But then again 97 could be a huge problem it if survives.

[Sanibel]

Blown Away: You are better with a Floater image at closer range.


Convergence: 20 mph forward movement storms tend to "skip" across this area of the Caribbean until they slow down and plant further into the Caribbean upon reaching the recurve zone for the tropical easterlies (tropical flow).

[gatorcane]

Here's a satellite witha surface plot. No evidence of an LLC:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby17.gif

Yep and it certainly doesn't look as good as last night. Wonder if it will just be a strong wave going through the Caribbean and we'll have to wait until it gets out of the eastern caribbean graveyard.

the story of this season...

I agree, it doesn't look nearly as good as last night. What's so upsetting about this not forming? Nobody on the Gulf coast (including Mexico) needs another tropical system and nobody needs anything more in the Gulf, as was already mentioned, prices have just started to go down at the pump. I would be thrilled if this went the route of the others this year and just dissipates.

The post of the day so far. I hope 97L never gets it's act together. Anyway,some of the models (like with Chris) obviously see something no one else does and are not jumping on the developmental bandwagon just yet.

I agree I am hoping it ends up being just some heavy showers and storms through the Caribbean. Although storms have formed in th Eastern Caribbean, it is notorious for keeping waves at check no matter what the conditions are (there are exceptions obviously)

[gatorcane]

I smell a big bust coming on 97L - just my feeling.

[ConvergenceZone]

This system is looking bad and we can only be thankful for that.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

The models trend more west and it looks like the GFDL loses 97L @60hours

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... re&hour=60

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif

But then again 97 could be a huge problem it if survives.

hehe, can you imagine, if this one doesn't develop?, I don't think anyone will pay attention to ANY wave after this, as we will be tired of being wrong all of the time. I'd look at the next wave and say "yea right, like it's going to develop", and I'll probably be right in my thinking.

[Stormcenter]

I smell a big bust coming on 97L - just my feeling.

I smell another Chris but at least he got a name and was classified, 97L hasn't even gotten that. I don't think anyone should write this off just yet.